SportsLine’s model simulated the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour golf picks
SportsLine’s model simulated the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour golf picks
The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing continues this week with the world’s top players set to compete at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Experienced and amateur bettors alike will lock in wagers for this event at Bay Hill, which features a great mix of proven champions and budding superstars eager to make their mark on the PGA Tour. Major champions like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas are expected to be in the mix at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational with 700 FedEx Cup points going to the winner. Play gets underway from Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge on Thursday, March 6.
However, Kurt Kitayama’s victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023 proved anyone can finish on top of the leaderboard at Bay Hill. Scheffler, the defending champion, is going off as the +320 favorite (risk $100 to win $320), according to the latest 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds. The No. 1 ranked player in the world is followed by Rory McIlroy (+750), Ludvig Aberg (+1600) and Xander Schauffele (+1600) on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters — its third Masters in a row — and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting apps like FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics.
Now that the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy, a 27-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top five. McIlroy opened the 2025 season with a convincing victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am but followed that up with a T-17 performance at the Genesis Invitational.
McIlroy won this event in 2018 but has finished T-13 or worse in two of his last three starts at Bay Hill. The 35-year-old has also struggled with accuracy off the tee this season, ranking 125th in driving accuracy (56.25%). McIlroy also ranks 82nd in birdie average (4.13) and 93rd in strokes gained: putting (0.050). He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational field. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Patrick Cantlay, a 30-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
In order to score well at Bay Hill, players will need to be extremely accurate with their irons. Cantlay enters this week’s event ranked second on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation percentage (76.39%). He’s also been effective with a putter in his hands this season, ranking sixth in putting average (1.655). His ability to constantly drain putts has the 32-year-old averaging 5.56 birdies per round, which ranks second on tour. Those impressive stats, plus his long odds, make him a strong value pick for your 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks
The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer who will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors in 2024.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, favorites
Get full 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, best bets and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler +320
Rory McIlroy +750
Ludvig Aberg +1600
Xander Schauffele +1600
Collin Morikawa +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Justin Thomas +2800
Patrick Cantlay +3000
Tommy Fleetwood +3500
Sungjae Im +4500
Will Zalatoris +5000
Sam Burns +5500
Keegan Bradley +5500
Matt Fitzpatrick +5500
Viktor Hovland +5500
Maverick McNealy +5500
Wyndham Clark +6000
Robert MacIntyre +6000
Tony Finau +6000
Russell Henley +6500
Shane Lowry +6500
Daniel Berger +6500
Sepp Straka +7000
Corey Conners +7000
Taylor Pendrith +7000
Tom Kim +7500
Michael Kim +8000
Jason Day +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Jake Knapp +8000
Denny Mccarthy +9000
Adam Scott +9000
Min Woo Lee +9000
Davis Thompson +9000
Billy Horschel +10000
Aaron Rai +11000
Max Greyserman +11000
J.J. Spaun +11000
Samuel Stevens +11000
Patrick Rodgers +11000
Cameron Young +11000
Sahith Theegala +11000
Thomas Detry +11000
Lucas Glover +12000
Brian Harman +12000
Alex Smalley +12000|
J.T. Poston +12000
Aldrich Potgieter +12000
Byeong Hun An +12000
Taylor Moore +12000
Nick Taylor +15000
Stephan Jaeger +15000
Isaiah Salinda +15000
Where to bet on PGA Tour tournaments
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, along with the various PGA Tour sportsbook promos they currently offer.