2025 Daytona 500 predictions, odds, date, time: NASCAR model that nailed 19 winners gives picks, leaderboard​on February 6, 2025 at 6:31 pm

The Daytona 500 is the pillar of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule and the 2025 season will begin with “The Great American Race” on Sunday, Feb. 16. William Byron won his first Daytona 500 last year, but Joey Logano won the season-long title and will enter the 2025 Daytona 500 as a three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion. Logano will look for a second victory in the biggest race on the NASCAR schedule, having previously won NASCAR’s premier event in 2015.

The green flag is scheduled to drop at 2:30 p.m. ET and the 2025 Daytona 500 starting grid will run 200 laps. Kyle Busch is the favorite at +1100 on FanDuel, followed by Denny Hamlin (+1200), Joey Logano (+1300), Ryan Blaney (+1300), and Brad Keselowski (+1300) in the 2025 Daytona 500 odds, while Byron is +1800. Before entering any 2025 Daytona 500 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Daytona predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at last week’s Clash at Bowman Gray. In 2024, it nailed Kyle Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. 

It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 19 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the Daytona 500 2025 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Daytona leaderboard.

Top 2025 Daytona 500 predictions

For the 2025 Daytona 500, we can tell you the model is high on William Byron, even though he’s a longshot at +1800 in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. In addition to winning the 2024 Daytona 500, Byron won at Daytona International Speedway in the 2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400 and was the runner-up in the 2019 Daytona Night Race.

Byron is now a 13-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series and he’s finished third in the NASCAR standings each of the last two seasons while piling up nine wins, 28 top fives and 42 top-10 finishes. Now he’ll look to take another step towards winning a championship and he can start that pursuit by becoming just the fifth driver in NASCAR history to win back-to-back Daytona 500s.

And a massive shocker: Brad Keselowski, one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2025 Daytona 500 starting lineup. Keselowski finally ended a 110-race winless streak last season with a victory at Darlington but his pursuit of a second career title came well short after a string of bad results late in the season. 

He was eliminated after the first round of the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs and finished outside the top 10 in nine of his last 11 starts. Keselowski also finished 33rd in the 2024 Daytona 500 and has never won The Great American Race, though he did win the 2016 Coke Zero 400. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting two drivers with NASCAR odds longer than 15-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Daytona 500 2025, and which longshots are must-backs for NASCAR prop bets? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Daytona odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 19 winners, including Chase Elliott’s win (+300) at the 2025 Clash at Bowman Gray.

2025 NASCAR Daytona odds, drivers, lineup

See the full NASCAR at Daytona picks at SportsLine.

Kyle Busch +1100
Denny Hamlin +1200
Joey Logano +1300
Ryan Blaney +1300
Brad Keselowski +1300
Kyle Larson +1400
Chase Elliott +1500
Denny Hamlin +1500
Todd Gilliland +1800
William Byron +1800
Christopher Bell +2000
Tyler Reddick +2200
Chris Buescher +2200
Bubba Wallace +2200
Austin Cindric +2400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2500
Josh Berry +2500
Ross Chastain +2600
Alex Bowman +3000
Chase Briscoe +3000
Michael McDowell +3000
Ty Gibbs +3300
Ryan Preece +4000
Just Allgaier +4000
Daniel Suarez +4000
Erik Jones +4500
Noah Gragson +4500
Martin Truex Jr. +5000
Austin Dillon +5000
Carson Hocevar +5000
Justin Haley +5500
AJ Allmendinger +6000
Riley Herbst +6500
Cole Custer +7000
Helio Castroneves +7000
Shane Van Gisbergen +7500
Chandler Smith +8000
Ty Dillon +8000
Corey Lajoie +8000
Zane Smith +8000
John Hunter Nemechek +9000
Jimmie Johnson +15000
Cody Ware +15000
Austin Hill +20000
Anthony Alfredo +25000
BJ McLeod +75000
JJ Yeley +75000