Women’s Bracketology: Texas’ huge week complicates jam-packed No. 1 seed race​on January 24, 2025 at 3:23 pm

A dilemma has developed atop the projected March Madness field: Six teams have resumes deserving of No. 1 seeds, but only four spots are up for grabs.

UCLA and South Carolina are the clear top two teams at this stage, and could both sustain a loss and remain at the top of the bracket. With six Quad-1 wins and only one loss all season, USC has been nothing but sensational.

The Trojans’ one loss came to a Notre Dame team that has three wins over current No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. No other team has more than one, and that’s more than enough to give the Irish a No. 1 seed of their own.

LSU has just three Quad-1 wins (all other No. 1 seed contenders have at least five), but is clearly in the mix as the nation’s only undefeated team aside from UCLA.

And then there’s Texas coming off the best week of anyone.

On Monday, the Longhorns blew the doors off No. 8 Maryland, winning 89-51 in the Coretta Scott King Classic. The 38-point victory was Texas’ largest ever against a top-10 opponent, and for Maryland, it was the fourth-largest loss by a top-10 team in the last 20 seasons.

Texas earned another Quad-1 win at home against Tennessee on Thursday, a game Volunteers coach Kim Caldwell missed following the birth of her first child.

Now at No. 3 in the NET rankings and with losses to only South Carolina and Notre Dame, Texas is firmly back in the race for a top seed. With so many top contenders and the margins ever so thin, each game becomes even more valuable.

No. 1 seeds

*UCLA (19-0, 7-0 Big Ten): NET 4, SOS 45

Winning a title often requires a dominant effort from a star player, and Lauren Betts has proven herself capable. Against a ranked Baylor team on Monday, the 6-foot-7 center finished with 24 points, nine rebounds and a school-record nine blocks. 

It’s the only time a Division I player has finished a game with 20 points and nine blocks this season, and she followed it up with 25 points, 13 boards and five blocks against Rutgers as UCLA continues its longest undefeated start in program history.

*South Carolina (18-1, 6-0 SEC): NET 1, SOS 1

Another day, another record for South Carolina. The Gamecocks’ 41-point win over Oklahoma was their largest victory against a ranked team, which may even come as a surprise considering the team’s unmatched excellence over the past decade.

Dawn Staley’s squad is in the midst of five straight games against ranked teams, but has won the first three by a combined 76 points as LSU makes its way to Columbia for a monumental Friday afternoon clash.

USC (18-1, 8-0 Big Ten): NET 5, SOS 13

Last season, the Pac-12 was the nation’s toughest conference. Now, the Big Ten is projected to have 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament field. Of course, ex-Pac-12 schools like USC, UCLA and Oregon are partly responsible for that. Still, that gauntlet from a year ago has left USC more than ready for conference play. 

It’s now 14 straight wins for the Trojans, who are still without a blemish in Big Ten competition despite the cross-country travel.

*Notre Dame (17-2, 8-0 ACC): NET 6, SOS 3

The scary part about Notre Dame is it can come from anyone. Hannah Hidalgo may be the frontrunner for the Naismith Award, but before she arrived in South Bend, Olivia Miles was considered possibly the best point guard in the nation. Miles had back-to-back triple-doubles just last month.

Sonia Citron is an assassin. Pittsburgh transfer Liatu King averages a double-double. Maddy Westbeld made her 2024-25 debut earlier this month and has led the Irish in scoring for a season before. It’s a lot. 

No. 2 seeds

Texas (19-2, 5-1 SEC): NET 3, SOS 4

Few teams can match up with Texas’ size. Vic Schaefer is comfortable going deep into his bench and only two members of the Longhorns’ rotation are under 6-foot tall.

It translates to a team that leads the nation in offensive rebounding rate (45.5%) and suffocates its opponents on defense with the second-best turnover margin in the sport (11.0). All those extra possessions lead to wins.

LSU (20-0, 5-0 SEC): NET 9, SOS 84

Kim Mulkey’s LSU Tigers have started 20-0 for the second time in program history. That other time? The 2022-23 season that culminated in a national championship. That year, LSU began 23-0 before suffering its only regular-season loss at South Carolina.

If LSU can do what it couldn’t two years ago and knock off the Gamecocks, we’ll officially start the undefeated season watch.

*UConn (18-2, 9-0 Big East): NET 2, SOS 34

UConn is tearing through conference play. What else is new? The Huskies have lost only three conference games over the last 12 seasons, a stat I’m still trying to wrap my head around.

Unfortunately, 60-point wins against Seton Hall won’t get the Huskies a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. With Creighton the only other Big East team projected to make the 68-team field, UConn will need to win its remaining non-conference tests at Tennessee and South Carolina for a chance to improve its standing.

*Kansas State (19-1, 7-0 Big 12): NET 7, SOS 95

The nation’s best team not getting a lot of attention, Kansas State is good at just about everything. Throw a dart at the board. Assists per game? The Wildcats lead Division I. Opponent field goal percentage? First. Scoring margin? First.

Kansas State has been a steamroller through 20 games, but we’ll see if they can keep it up without Ayoka Lee, who’s now sidelined indefinitely with a fractured bone in her foot.

No. 3 seeds

Ohio State (18-1, 7-1 Big Ten): NET 15, SOS 81

The Buckeyes suffered a brutal first loss of the season to a Penn State team coming off seven straight losses, but rebounded strongly with a win over Maryland this week to stay within a game of the Big Ten lead.

Ohio State trailed that contest by seven points at the half, but beat the Terrapins 47-32 after the break and won the turnover battle 17-6 to defend home court.

TCU (19-2, 7-1 Big 12): NET 10, SOS 68

Oklahoma State left the door open against TCU by going 0-4 from the line over the final 15 seconds, but Hailey Van Lith’s potential game-winner couldn’t drop. It was the Cowgirls’ first win over a top-10 team since 2017, but TCU should be thrilled to be providing those kinds of quality wins.

This week, the Horned Frogs are ranked a school-record No. 9 in the AP poll. Road losses happen, but this year has been special.

Duke (16-4, 7-1 ACC): NET 8, SOS 5

Duke is a team hitting its stride. Winners of four straight games including three straight by at least 25 points, the Blue Devils have been giving ACC foes nightmares, allowing just 48.8 points per game through eight conference games.

No ACC team has scored even 60 on Duke, making Sunday’s game at Georgia Tech intriguing. The Yellow Jackets are 12-1 at home this season, averaging more than 86 points per game in those contests. 

North Carolina (18-3, 6-2 ACC): NET 14, SOS 39

The Tar Heels are the last team to beat Duke, and while that is its own reward, North Carolina has its sights on bigger things this season after back-to-back exits in the NCAA Round of 32 in the last two years.

Now 18-3, this is UNC’s best 21-game start since the 2012-13 campaign, but even that year they fell in the Round of 32 against senior Elena Delle Donne’s No. 6-seeded Delaware.

No. 4 seeds

Kentucky (16-2, 5-1 SEC): NET 21, SOS 64

It speaks to the top-to-bottom strength of the SEC that the conference has 10 teams currently a No. 8 seed or better, but it was Texas A&M, not currently in range of a March Madness berth, that handed Kentucky its first conference loss.

The Wildcats shot just 1-18 from three-point territory in the 61-55 loss and finished with fewer than 70 points for just the second time all season. That other game? Kentucky’s only other loss, 72-53 at North Carolina.

Alabama (17-3, 4-2 SEC): NET 17, SOS 31

Zaay Green is making the most of her seventh season of college basketball. The SEC’s only player averaging at least 15 points, five rebounds and four assists per game, Green has topped 20 points in four of Alabama’s last six contests.

The Crimson Tide are holding onto a hosting position but face a tricky week ahead, which starts at home against Vanderbilt on Sunday before facing Kentucky on the road.

Maryland (16-3, 6-2 Big Ten): NET 22, SOS 15

After a 14-0 start, Maryland has dropped three of five games, and it won’t get any easier against UCLA on Sunday. The Terrapins have lost nine straight games versus AP No. 1 teams, with the last win coming in the 2006 Final Four against UNC.

That Maryland team would beat Duke to win what remains the school’s only national championship. Coach Brenda Frese remains at the helm and is no doubt looking to return to the top of the mountain.

Oklahoma (15-4, 3-3 SEC): NET 16, SOS 8

The final hosting spot is currently an in-state battle. With an extra Quad-1 win and no bad losses, the Sooners have the edge and should have no problems with Georgia on Sunday, but next Thursday’s game at LSU will either give Oklahoma a more solid hold or keep them in a crowded pack.

No. 5 seeds

Oklahoma State (16-3, 6-2 Big 12): NET 28, SOS 75

California (18-3, 6-2 ACC): NET 35, SOS 51

NC State (15-4, 7-1 ACC): NET 25, SOS 21

Tennessee (15-4, 3-4 SEC): NET 13, SOS 19

No. 6 seeds

Michigan State (16-3, 6-2 Big Ten): NET 18, SOS 42

Utah (14-5, 5-3 Big 12): NET 27, SOS 24

Creighton (16-3, 8-0 Big East): NET 33, SOS 65

Georgia Tech (17-3, 5-3 ACC): NET 20, SOS 55

No. 7 seeds

Nebraska (15-4, 6-2 Big Ten): NET 31, SOS 30

Ole Miss (13-5, 4-2 SEC): NET 12, SOS 26

Baylor (16-4, 6-1 Big 12): NET 24, SOS 76

West Virginia (16-3, 6-2 Big 12 ): NET 11, SOS 108

No. 8 seeds

Mississippi State (16-5, 3-4 SEC): NET 32, SOS 29

Michigan (14-5, 5-3 Big Ten): NET 23, SOS 18

Vanderbilt (16-4, 3-3 SEC): NET 19, SOS 59

Indiana (12-6, 4-3 Big Ten): NET 39, SOS 16

No. 9 seeds

Iowa (13-7, 3-6 Big Ten): NET 34, SOS 27

Louisville (13-6, 6-2 ACC): NET 40, SOS 17

Florida State (15-4, 5-2 ACC): NET 26, SOS 77

*South Dakota State (16-3, 6-0 Summit): NET 41, SOS 52

No. 10 seeds

Oregon (14-5, 5-3 Big Ten): NET 37, SOS 38

Illinois (14-5, 4-4 Big Ten): NET 38, SOS 36

*Richmond (16-5, 7-1 Atlantic 10): NET 30, SOS 67

Minnesota (17-3, 5-3 Big Ten): NET 29, SOS 121

No. 11 seeds

*Harvard (14-2, 3-1 Ivy): NET 36, SOS 188

Iowa State (14-7, 5-3 Big 12): NET 42, SOS 33

Princeton (12-5, 3-1 Ivy): NET 47, SOS 92

Virginia Tech (14-5, 5-3 ACC): NET 44, SOS 60

Columbia (13-4, 4-0 Ivy): NET 49, SOS 93

*Ball State (15-4, 7-0 MAC): NET 52, SOS 101

No. 12 seeds

*James Madison (15-4, 7-0 Sun Belt): NET 50, SOS 80

*UNLV (16-4, 8-0 MWC): NET 46, SOS 173

*Fairfield (14-3, 8-0 MAAC): NET 43, SOS 181

*Montana State (17-2, 7-0 Big Sky): NET 59, SOS 211

No. 13 seeds

*Murray State (12-4, 6-1 MVC): NET 53, SOS 118

*Middle Tennessee (13-6, 5-1 CUSA): NET 58, SOS 97

*Lamar (12-4, 7-0 Southland): NET 71, SOS 182

*UTSA (17-2, 8-0 AAC): NET 66, SOS 302

No. 14 seeds

*Florida Gulf Coast (16-3, 7-0 ASUN): NET 61, SOS 295

*Portland (18-3, 7-3 WCC): NET 68, SOS 347

*Grand Canyon (18-2, 5-0 WAC): NET 74, SOS 233

*Green Bay (16-5, 9-1 Horizon): NET 92, SOS 189

No. 15 seeds

*Norfolk State (17-4, 4-0 MEAC): NET 106, SOS 138

*Lehigh (15-4, 6-1 Patriot): NET 99, SOS 301

*Albany (16-4, 6-1 America East): NET 117, SOS 275

*Charleston (12-4, 3-2 CAA): NET 104, SOS 344

No. 16 seeds

*Hawai’i (12-6, 6-2 Big West): NET 131, SOS 225

*Southern Indiana (15-5, 7-2 OVC): NET 132, SOS 156

*Fairleigh Dickinson (16-3, 6-0 NEC): NET 177, SOS 257

*Wofford (12-5, 4-0 SoCon): NET 141, SOS 57

*Alabama A&M (11-6, 4-1 SWAC): NET 199, SOS 194

*Longwood (15-5, 6-0 Big South): NET 210, SOS 346

Last Four In

Iowa State (14-7, 5-3 Big 12): NET 42, SOS 33

Princeton (12-5, 3-1 Ivy): NET 47, SOS 92

Virginia Tech (14-5, 5-3 ACC): NET 44, SOS 60

Columbia (13-4, 4-0 Ivy): NET 49, SOS 93

First Four Out

St. Joseph’s (15-4, 6-2 Atlantic 10): NET 51, SOS 208

Stanford (10-9, 2-6 ACC): NET 45, SOS 10

Seton Hall (13-5, 5-2 Big East): NET 76, SOS 53

George Mason (16-3, 6-2 Atlantic 10): NET 48, SOS 171