Betting buzz: Everything at stake at 2025 NFL Honors​on February 6, 2025 at 6:37 pm

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file — with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others — aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | NBA odds page | ESPN BET

Betting buzz: Everything at stake for bettors at 2025 NFL Honors

Doug Greenberg: Ahead of the Super Bowl main event on Sunday, New Orleans will play host to the NFL Honors, where the league will hand its major awards for the 2024 season. Some bettors have been riding out awards futures for nearly a year, so let’s take a look at what’s at stake — and who is likely to come out on top — on Thursday night.

Most Valuable Player

Despite a monster season from Philadelphia Eagles‘ RB Saquon Barkley, the MVP award figures to go to a quarterback for the 12th straight season. Since mid-November, it’s essentially been a two-man race that featured a late twist.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen put up another remarkable season in 2024 and, for a while, seemed poised to take home his first MVP honor for his efforts. On Dec. 1, the Bills beat the San Francisco 49ers in a Sunday Night Football snow game that saw Allen score a remarkable highlight reel rushing touchdown.

From that moment on, the 28-year-old was the odds-on favorite for the honor, getting as short as -1000 in mid-December and closing at -500, per ESPN BET odds. He finished as easily BetMGM’s handle leader with 28.6% of the money.

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was actually the first player to cross into minus money for the award when he showed -115 at ESPN BET on Nov. 17. He then fell significantly behind Allen for about a month but made a late run at him in December, getting as short as +155 on Christmas Day before closing at +350.

Jackson put up arguably better stats this season than he did when he won MVP for 2023 and he was rewarded for that with a first-team All-Pro selection — a notable development because, since MVP was first awarded in 1957, a player has been named first-team All-Pro and not won MVP only twice.

Jackson took the most bets (34%) and handle (22.2%) at ESPN BET.

Offensive Player of the Year

Although Barkley probably won’t win MVP, he’s likely to take home the Offensive Player of the Year award.

For much of the season, he and Ravens RB Derrick Henry jockeyed for position on the award, trading short odds and easily being the two handle leaders for the honor at ESPN BET. However, following his gargantuan 255-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 24, Barkley moved to -325 and never looked back, ultimately closing at -10000.

Defensive Player of the Year

Before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 6, Detroit Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson was the early favorite to take home his first DPOY award and bettors were backing him en masse, as he racked up the second-most tickets at ESPN BET (10.2%) and BetMGM (11.5%).

After his injury, though, Pittsburgh Steelers LB T.J. Watt took charge of the odds, eventually garnering minus money from the end of October to the end of December at ESPN BET. He also easily attracted the most bets and money at both ESPN BET and BetMGM.

However, the winds shifted mightily in the new year and Denver Broncos CB Pat Surtain II emerged as the late big favorite, closing anywhere between -200 and -600 at major sportsbooks. The 24-year-old ended up trailing only Watt for the most money at ESPN BET and BetMGM.

Rookie of the Year

Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels put up one of the most impressive rookie quarterback seasons in league history and ended up with -10000 closing odds at ESPN BET as a result; he was minus money by the end of September, a status he never relinquished.

Although Daniels attracted respectable tickets and money, sportsbooks also took a lot of action on Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams and Broncos QB Bo Nix, so Daniels winning ultimately seems like a good result for the books.

On the defensive side, Rams DE Jared Verse separated himself from the pack and closed with -1600 odds at ESPN BET; he took easily the most handle at the sportsbook.

Coach of the Year

This honor would appear to be headed in the direction of Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, who closed at -700 at ESPN BET following a remarkable, unexpected season for his team. He attracted a leading 41.4% of handle at the sportsbook.

However, though he closed with +450 odds, Lions HC Dan Campbell can’t exactly be counted out, especially given his squad dismantled O’Connell’s head-to-head to determine the NFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 18. Campbell tops BetMGM’s handle list with 20.8% of the money and has a leading 19.3% of bets.

Comeback Player of the Year

This is going to be arguably the most controversial award of the night and will make a lot of bettors angry no matter who wins.

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow closed as the slim favorite for this award by virtue of his adhering to the Associated Press’ new voter guidelines, but Vikings QB Sam Darnold was right behind him after putting up the best season of his career despite not coming back from a major injury.

It’s created a massive headache for sportsbooks and bettors alike. You can read more about it here.

David Purdum: The sports world and betting market is still buzzing about the stunning trade Saturday night that sent Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis.

The deal produced a flurry of betting activity, including more wagers on the championship winner market, on Sunday at ESPN BET than any other day since the season began. The majority of the bets were on the Lakers.

Here’s a look at the betting numbers behind the blockbuster move:

• 40-1 — The Lakers’ odds to win the NBA Finals at ESPN BET before the trade. The Lakers’ odds have since shortened to 16-1.

• 25-1 — The Mavericks’ odds to win the Finals at ESPN BET before the trade. The Mavericks’ odds have since moved to 33-1.

• 5 — The number of teams with shorter odds to win the NBA Finals at ESPN BET than the Lakers. The Boston Celtics remain the favorites (+210), followed closely by the Oklahoma City Thunder (+225). The Cleveland Cavaliers (+850), New York Knicks (+1300) and Denver Nuggets (+1400) round out the top five teams.

• -4.5 — The early line at ESPN BET on the Feb. 25 game between the Mavericks and Lakers in Los Angeles. The Lakers opened as 5.5-point favorites. The line dipped to -4.5 by Monday.

• 69% — Since the trade broke overnight Saturday, 69% of the bets on the odds to win the Finals at Fanatics Sportsbook were on the Lakers, more than all other teams combined. The second-most popular bet since the trade? The Mavericks (11%).

• +550 — The Mavericks’ odds to beat the Cavaliers on Sunday in their first game since the trade. More money-line bets were placed on the Mavericks than any other team Sunday at BetMGM sportsbooks. Cleveland won 144-101.

• 45.5 — The Mavericks’ season-win total ahead of the trade at ESPN BET. The book reposted the number after the trade at 44.5.

Breaking down the early Heisman favorites

Pamela Maldonado: Texas QB Arch Manning opened as the betting favorite to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy at +750 odds on Thursday night. The redshirt sophomore is entering his third season with the Longhorns after backing up Quinn Ewers his first two seasons. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier is second on the ESPN BET oddsboard at +800 with Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava (+1100), Clemson’s Cade Klubnik (+1200) and Penn State’s Drew Allar (+1200) rounding out the top five. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1500) has the shortest odds for a non-QB.

QB Arch Manning, Texas Longhorns (+750)

Manning is stepping into the spotlight as Texas’ full-time starting quarterback, ready to prove he’s more than just his last name. A product of the legendary Manning dynasty, he possesses the arm talent, accuracy, and a high level of football IQ that could make him a nightmare for defenses. In limited action during the 2024 season, Manning flashed his potential, throwing for 939 yards, 9 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. His dual-threat ability was also on display, adding 108 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 25 carries — an element that only enhances Texas’ already high-powered offense.

The 2025 schedule, however, presents a challenge. Manning will be tested early with a road opener at Ohio State, followed by trips to Florida and Georgia, before closing the regular season at home against Texas A&M.

QB, Garrett Nussmeier, LSU Tigers (+800)

Nussmeier’s throwing power and quick release make him a perfect fit for LSU’s pro-style offense, and his 2024 numbers back it up: 4,052 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, ranking third in LSU’s single-season history.

But it’s more than just stats — Nussmeier has the clutch factor. He made a statement against Ole Miss in Week 7, lighting up their defense for 337 yards and three touchdowns in an overtime thriller. Even after a shoulder injury against Oklahoma in Week 14, he returned to fire two deep touchdowns to Chris Hilton, proving his toughness.

The key to his Heisman campaign? Sharpening his decision-making and avoiding forced throws. If he refines his game, LSU’s high-powered offense will give him every opportunity to be in the Heisman conversation all season long.

WR, Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State Buckeyes (+1500)

Jeremiah Smith is the player everyone should watch this season. Listed as the sixth favorite to win the Heisman, the Ohio State wideout delivered a historic freshman season in 2024, recording 76 catches, 1,315 yards, and 15 touchdowns — setting FBS single-season records for a true freshman. His dominance earned him Big Ten Freshman of the Year, Big Ten Receiver of the Year, and Rose Bowl MVP honors after a 187-yard, two-touchdown performance.

Smith’s explosive playmaking, elite route-running and ability to deliver in big moments make him a legitimate Heisman contender. From his jaw-dropping, one-handed grab against Michigan State in Week 5 to a 60-yard reception vs. Nebraska in Week 9, Smith is a human highlight reel. Wide receivers rarely win the Heisman, but Smith has the production and star power to rewrite history.

Betting consideration: Wait and see

It’s January — so pump the brakes. Notre Dame is still licking its wounds from a National Championship loss to Ohio State, and the 2025 landscape is far from settled. While the favorites naturally draw attention, intriguing names are emerging. Quarterbacks like South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik could present value worth monitoring.

Manning may be the frontrunner for now, but there are still seven months until the 2025 season kicks off. Preseason lines ahead of Week 0 will be key. Since 2009, only one preseason favorite — Marcus Mariota in 2014 — has gone on to win the Heisman. Whether Manning still holds that spot by kickoff remains to be seen.

As for Smith? He’s absolutely on my radar. Six sophomores have won the Heisman, from Tim Tebow in 2007 to Caleb Williams in 2022. However, with so much uncertainty ahead, patience might be the smarter play — for now.