Betting tips for Saturday: Odds, analysis, picks and trends​on January 17, 2025 at 6:45 pm

The NFL divisional round starts with a bang, as the No. 1 seeds in both the AFC and NFC will be in action Saturday.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will begin their pursuit of a third straight Super Bowl championship against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans to get the day underway.

The Detroit Lions, fresh off a bye after defeating the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 to win the NFC North and clinch the conference’s top seed, host rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders.

We break down both games and offer lines, props, picks, trends and more to help you prepare for any betting opportunities.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

The NFL divisional round gets going Saturday with the two-time defending champion Chiefs (15-2, 7-10 ATS) hosting the Texans (11-7, 8-10 ATS after covering in the wild-card round) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

The AFC top-seeded Chiefs had a bye last week, while the Texans laid waste to the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round. These teams have met twice previously in the playoffs, with the Chiefs winning both matchups.

Kansas City has been involved in several close calls this season, playing in 10 games decided by seven points or less, winning each of them. The Chiefs are 7-0 outright but 0-7 ATS when laying at least six points this season. They opened as 7.5-point favorites for Saturday’s matchup and now are 8-point favorites.

The Texans, who won the AFC South for a second consecutive season with quarterback C.J. Stroud at the helm, intercepted Justin Herbert four times in the wild-card round on the way to a convincing 32-12 victory.

The Texans are looking for back-to-back playoff wins for the first time, while the Chiefs begin their quest to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

Saturday’s action gets going at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+.

Game lines

play

Trailer: Texans vs. Chiefs

The Houston Texans take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC divisional round on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. EST on ESPN/ABC.

Spread: Chiefs -8 (Opened Chiefs -7.5)
Money line: Chiefs -450, Texans +340
Over/Under: 41.5 (Opened 42.5)

First-half spread: Chiefs -4.5 (-125), Ravens +4.5 (+102)
Chiefs total points: 24.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Texans total points: 16.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): 63.6% chance to win (by 4.6)

Player props

Passing

Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Mahomes total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -150/Under +115)
C.J. Stroud total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Stroud total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +170/Under -230)

Rushing

Joe Mixon total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Isiah Pacheco total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Kareem Hunt total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Mahomes total rushing yards: 24.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Receiving

Nico Collins total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Hollywood Brown total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -1/52Under -105)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
John Metchie III total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Andre Snellings’ pick: Texans +8

play

How Tyler Fulghum is betting Texans-Chiefs

Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he likes adding the Chiefs to his teasers for the NFL playoffs and why he is leaning to the under.

The Chiefs play close games and win, but the games are typically competitive, defensive affairs. Only four of the Chiefs’ 15 wins this season were by more than eight points. The combined record of the losing teams in those lopsided contests is 24-44. The Chiefs have not covered a spread this large all season; they are 7-0 outright but 0-7 against the spread when laying at least six points this season, per ESPN Research. They are also coming off a multiweek layoff, with a bye in the wild-card round after sitting their starters in Week 18.

The Texans looked as sharp as they’ve looked all season against the Chargers last Saturday. The Chiefs beat the Texans by eight points when they met in Week 16 and should be favored to win, but the spread for me is too high for a Chiefs team that seems to love winning on the last possession of almost every game.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy ESPN Research

• Kansas City is seeking its eighth straight playoff win, which would be third-longest streak in NFL history behind the 2001-05 New England Patriots (10) and 1961-67 Green Bay Packers (9).

• The Chiefs are a win away from a seventh straight conference championship appearance (would be the second-longest streak since the 1970 merger, trailing only the 2011-18 Chiefs, who went to eight straight).

• Patrick Mahomes is seeking his 16th playoff win as starting QB, which would tie Joe Montana for second most in NFL history, trailing Tom Brady with 35.

• Mahomes is 6-0 in the divisional round (already the most wins without a loss by a starting QB in any playoff round in NFL history).

• Mahomes is 4-1 against the Texans, including the playoffs. In those games, he has averaged over 280 pass yards per game and has thrown 14 TDs to just one interception.

• The Chiefs are 2-0 all time vs. the Texans in playoffs (won 2015 wild-card matchup 30-0 and 2019 divisional round game 51-31 after trailing 24-0 in the second quarter.

• The Texans are 6-7 all time in the playoffs and have never won consecutive playoff games (0-5 in the divisional round). They are the only franchise that has never made a conference championship since the round was created in 1970.

• The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites (currently 8) but have not covered a spread this large all season. They are 7-0 outright but 0-7 against the spread when laying at least six points this season. That is the longest such streak of winning but not covering as a 6-point favorite in the Super Bowl era, just ahead of the 2020 Chiefs and 2006-09 Miami Dolphins (six each).

• The Chiefs are 15-2 this season but are just 7-10 against the spread. The only other playoff team with a losing record against the spread is their opponent, the Texans, who are 8-10 ATS after covering in the wild-card round.

• The Chiefs’ eight victories this season without covering the spread are tied for the most in a single season in the Super Bowl Era.

Saturday’s second divisional round game features an NFC matchup between a Lions team currently favored to win the Super Bowl (at +275) versus a Commanders team (30-1) that went from 4-13 and a last-place finish in the NFC East to 12-5 and advancing to the divisional round in Year 1 of the Dan Quinn-Jayden Daniels era.

Last season, the Lions came up one game short of the Super Bowl, falling 34-31 to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Meanwhile, the Commanders ended their 2023 season with eight straight losses.

How things can change.

The Commanders (13-5, 12-6 ATS) finished this campaign with five straight wins to close out the regular season and are coming off a wild-card win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory over the Buccaneers was Washington’s sixth win this season in which the game-winning score came in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or in overtime.

Detroit (15-2, 12-5 ATS) lost two games all season (to the Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills) by a combined 10 points on the way to a second straight NFC North title. The Lions boast a prolific offense that led the NFL in scoring and outscored opponents by a league-high 222 points in the regular season. They are the biggest favorites of the weekend, laying 9.5 points against the Commanders.

Kickoff from Ford Field in Detroit is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

Game lines

play

How Fulghum is backing the Commanders in divisional round vs. Lions

Tyler Fulghum explains why he is taking the Commanders to cover the spread in their divisional round matchup vs. the Lions.

Spread: Lions -9.5 (Opened Lions -8.5)
Money line: Lions -600, Commanders +400
Over/Under: 55.5 (Opened 53.5)

First-half spread: Lions -6.5 (-105), Ravens +6.5 (-115)
Lions total points: 32.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Commanders total points: 22.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Lions 73% chance to win (by 9)

Player props

Passing

Jared Goff total passing yards: 274.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Goff total passing TDs: 2.5 (Over +145/Under -190)
Jayden Daniels total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Daniels total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +105/Under -132)

Rushing

Jahmyr Gibbs total rushing yards: 79.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
David Montgomery total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Daniels total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Austin Ekeler total rushing yards: 24.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Receiving

Amon-Ra St. Brown total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Terry McLaurin total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Jameson Williams total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Sam LaPorta total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Olamide Zaccheaus total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Dyami Brown total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Zach Ertz total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

Pamela Maldonado’s pick: Commanders +9.5

The Commanders displayed both grit and precision in their thrilling 23-20 win over the Buccaneers, with rookie QB Jayden Daniels orchestrating a poised game-winning drive. The Commanders have become masters of the nail-biter this season, notching six victories when tied or trailing in the final moments. Daniels’ rapid development and Washington’s uncanny ability to deliver under pressure solidify the Commanders’ status as a dangerous underdog. Facing a powerhouse Lions squad, the Commanders’ momentum and knack for clutch performances makes them a compelling pick to cover the spread. With their late-game magic, they could make things interesting once again.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Jayden Daniels‘ 13 wins this season (including playoffs) are tied for the second most by a rookie QB in NFL history, trailing only the 14 victories by Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.

• The Commanders are looking to win multiple playoff games in a season for the first time since 1991, when they had three wins en route to their last Super Bowl win.

• The Lions have outscored opponent by 222 points this season, the largest margin in the NFL this season.

• These teams have met three times in the postseason (Washington is 3-0, with all three wins coming by at least 14 points); Washington went on to win the Super Bowl in two of the three playoffs where the teams met.

• The Commanders finished last season tied for the second-worst record in the NFL. With a win Saturday against the Lions, they would become the fifth team since the 1970 merger to reach a conference championship after finishing the previous season ranking in the bottom two of the league in record.

• The Commanders-Lions over/under currently sits at 55.5, which would be the highest in any playoff game since Super Bowl LV (2020) between the Buccaneers and Chiefs (56).

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