Champions League scenarios: Here’s what’s at stake in every single game, what each team needs to do and more​on January 29, 2025 at 1:29 am

The eighth and final round of UEFA Champions League games will complete the inaugural league phase of the new-look competition this Wednesday. In the first-of-its-kind final day, all games will start and finish at the same time which means that drama will be at its highest this midweek. Although most eyes will be trained on the likes of VfB Stuttgart vs. Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City vs. Club Brugge, there is plenty going on in the other games and no shortage of subplots to keep an eye on. In fact, in 14 of the 16 games, something is at stake.

As the action comes thick and fast, Paramount+ will be a one-stop shop for the matchday mayhem that will come in the league phase finale. In addition to showing every game live, Paramount+ will also be the exclusive home of The Golazo Show, the whiparound show that will have eyes on all 18 games on Wednesday.

Here is what is at stake in each game.

Champions League expert picks, predictions, best bets on Matchday 8: Man City, PSG qualify; Barca top Atalanta

Pardeep Cattry

Aston Villa (9) vs. Celtic (18)

Aston Villa (13 points; +5 GD): Unai Emery’s Villans are already certain of a playoff spot. However, they are still in a good position to seal a round of 16 berth thanks to their superior goal difference except in the case of Bayer Leverkusen. A Villa win over Celtic will bump the Birmingham outfit into the top eight as long as Atletico Madrid, Milan, Atalanta and Leverkusen do not all win.

Celtic (12 points; +1 GD): Brendan Rodgers’ Bhoys have locked down a playoff spot and although they do have a remote shot at the top eight, this is likely as good as it gets for the Scottish giants. With so many results needed to go Celtic’s way — notably none of the 10 clubs between fifth and 17th winning — it is improbable at best. Three more points would position them between ninth and 16th and a draw might even be enough for a seeded playoff spot although City and PSG are likely to be among the unseeded sides.

Barcelona (2) vs. Atalanta BC (7)

Barcelona (18 points; +15 GD): Hansi Flick’s Catalan side are already into the round of 16 and will top the league phase only if they beat Atalanta and Liverpool lose to PSV Eindhoven.

Atalanta (14 points; +14 GD): Gian Piero Gasperini’s Italians can only confirm a round of 16 place with a win while a loss will invite 11 possible clubs on 13 and 12 points pregame to overtake La Dea. A draw whittles that down to six possible threats on 13 points only while a defeat means that only two clubs would need to overtake Atalanta for the Serie A side to drop into the playoffs.

Bayer Leverkusen (8) vs. Sparta Prague (29)

Leverkusen (13 points; +6 GD): Xabi Alonso’s Werkself team are in the playoffs already and their goal difference is a big advantage over the clubs on 13 points ahead of the final games. It is almost certain but not 100% set in stone that the Germans are already in the top eight because of this. A win over eliminated Sparta Praha will confirm their ticket to the round of 16 while a draw or a loss will move them into the playoffs if even one of the 10 sides just below them wins.

Sparta Prague (4 points; -12 GD): Czechia’s representatives are already out.

Bayern Munich (15) vs. Slovan Bratislava (35)

Bayern (12 points; +6 GD): The German giants are certain of a playoff spot but are unlikely to break into the top eight even with arguably the most straightforward final game. In victory, Vincent Kompany’s men would still need at least four of the 10 teams directly above them to not win while Atleti, Milan and Atalanta could draw and still finish ahead of the Bavarians.

Bratislava (0 points; -18 GD): Slovakia’s representatives are already out.

Borussia Dortmund (14) vs. Shakhtar Donetsk (27)

Dortmund (12 points; +8 GD): BVB already have a playoff spot secured but are unlikely to break into the top eight — even if they win. Even if Dortmund beat Shakhtar, the Germans require a minimum of four out of nine clubs ranging from 15-13 points to not win with Atleti, Milan and Atalanta finishing ahead even with a draw.

Shakhtar (7 points; -6 GD): The Ukrainians could win and move onto 10 points but realistically they are already out as their goal difference is dreadful compared with the clubs already on 10 points while they also need City to not win.

Stade Brestois 29 (13) vs. Real Madrid (16)

Brest (13 points; +2 GD): Eric Roy’s Pirates are playoff-bound and a top-eight spot could be a reward for a stunning upset in Guingamp. Arsenal and Inter’s goal difference is much stronger than Brest’s which means that only sides on 15, 14 or 13 points can be targeted by the French minnows, and a famous win over Real would need to be combined with five of eight clubs above them drawing or losing.

Real Madrid (12 points; +5 GD): The defending champions are going to the playoffs but the top eight is unlikely for Carlo Ancelotti and his players as even a win to go to 15 points will bring things down to goal difference. At least two clubs on 12 points have better goal difference and nine clubs on 13-15 points which makes this a long shot.

Dinamo Zagreb (26) vs. Milan (6)

Dinamo (8 points; -8 GD): Croatia’s hopes lie with the hosts beating Milan to just have a chance of the playoffs. A win will give Dinamo 11 points but PSV and Brugge are already on 11 so Zagreb’s poor goal difference will likely end their hopes. Unless at least two of five clubs immediately above Dinamo fail to win, four of them could still draw and finish higher thanks to goal difference.

Milan (15 points; +4 GD): The Italians know that a win will book a round of 16 date. A draw would mean that the Rossoneri rely on other results with six sides on 13 points who could move ahead with a win while Atalanta only need a draw although Lille and Brest would need to win by at least three goals to overtake Milan.

Girona (31) vs. Arsenal (3)

Girona (3 points; -7 GD): The Spanish debutants have been eliminated.

Arsenal (16 points; +12 GD): The Gunners have secured a playoff spot and are more or less certain of a top-eight berth too. A win or a draw will confirm the round of 16 place but even a loss could suffice considering the maze of results that would have to be navigated to drop down.

Inter (4) vs. AS Monaco (10)

Inter (16 points; +7 GD): The Italians can book a top-eight finish with even a draw and it is not impossible that the Nerazzurri go through even in defeat. If the loss is not by more than two goals, Inter would only drop down if at last five of the nine clubs below them to win to stay in the round of 16 places.

Monaco (13 points; +3 GD): Les Monegasques are playoff-bound but a win in Italy would boost their top-eight hopes. Victory by at least two goals would send them ahead of Inter but anything less than that margin means that at least four of six clubs on 14 or 13 points must not win.

Juventus (17) vs. Benfica (21)

Juventus (12 points; +4 GD): Juve have a playoff spot confirmed and it is unlikely that it changes by the end of Wednesday’s games because of their comparatively weak goal difference to other clubs also on 12 points. With nine teams on 13-15 points, the Bianconeri would need at least nine of them between fifth and 16th to not win which is unlikely to say the least.

Benfica (10 points; +2 GD): A draw should be enough to secure the playoffs for the Portuguese giants given Dinamo’s worse goal difference and the fact that Stuttgart and PSG face each other. A loss might not be fatal as four of the five clubs still hopeful but below them would need to win or draw. However, if one of Stuttgart or PSG wins, then Benfica are definitely in the playoffs if Dinamo do not beat Milan.

Lille OSC (12) v Feyenoord (11)

Lille (13 points; +2 GD): Bruno Genesio’s Dogues can still reach the top eight with a win which would position them ahead of their Dutch visitors. If that happens, three of the seven sides on 15-13 points must not win with Atleti and Milan possibly even able to trump LOSC still with a draw depending on the score in Northern France.

Feyenoord (13 points; +2 GD): The Dutch giants are going to the playoffs but can only reach the top eight if three of the seven clubs on 15-13 points do not win while even a draw could do for Atleti and Milan.

Manchester City (25) vs. Club Brugge (20)

Man City (8 points; +2 GD): Pep Guardiola’s men are under threat but their mission is simple: win to possibly advance. Nothing other than victory at home to Club Brugge will do to avoid elimination. Three points would move City above the Belgians on goal difference and then it is a question of bumping up one more place to secure a top 24 berth.

Brugge (11 points; -2 GD): Nicky Hayen’s side reach the playoffs if they avoid defeat in Manchester but a loss means that Benfica, PSG, Sporting or Stuttgart losing could still keep them in a playoff spot. In the event that all four draw with PSG and Stuttgart facing each other, Brugge will be eliminated if they lose at Etihad Stadium. A winner in Germany ensures that the Belgians advance.

PSV Eindhoven (19) vs. Liverpool (1)

PSV (11 points; +3 GD): Even with a loss to Liverpool, PSV are playoffs-bound because six of the seven teams below them cannot overtake them because four play each other with PSG at Stuttgart and Brugge at City. It is impossible for the Dutch hosts to go out here.

Liverpool (21 points; +13 GD): The Reds are into the round of 16 and Arne Slot’s men will top the league phase by avoiding defeat. Barca failing to beat Atalanta ensures top spot even in the event that the Merseysiders lose in Eindhoven.

Red Bull Salzburg (34) vs. Atletico Madrid (5)

Salzburg (3 points; -19 GD): Both of Austria’s representatives are already out.

Atletico Madrid (15 points; +5 GD): Diego Simeone’s side need to win to qualify for the round of 16 but a draw could even be enough as long as four of eight teams below the Spaniards do not win. If Atleti do draw, then French pair Lille or Brest need a four-goal win to overtake them with Monaco and Feyenoord each needing a three-goal winning margin.

Sporting CP (23) vs. Bologna (28)

Sporting (10 points +1 GD): Owing to Dinamo’s weak goal difference and Stuttgart meeting PSG, Sporting need to simply avoid defeat against eliminated Bologna to reach the playoffs. Even a loss, as long as it is not a heavy one by three or four goals, will see them through if Stuttgart lose or City fail to beat Brugge. A PSG loss by a bigger margin than Sporting’s defeat could even do.

Bologna (5 points; -5 GD): The Italian debutants have been eliminated.

Sturm Graz (33) vs. RB Leipzig (30)

Graz (3 points; -10 GD): Both of Austria’s representatives are already out.

Leipzig (3 points; -6 GD): Leipzig, like fellow Red Bull-owned club Salzburg, are out.

VfB Stuttgart (24) vs. Paris Saint-Germain (22)

Stuttgart (10 points; -1 GD): The Germans need to avoid defeat to reach the playoffs while a win would move them above PSG. In the event of a stalemate, two of City, Brugge and Dinamo will finish below them. A loss for Stuttgart will see them go out if City or Dinamo are victorious.

PSG (10 points; +1 GD): Dinamo’s hugely negative goal difference means that Luis Enrique’s side only need to draw to reach the playoffs — they would definitely finish above their hosts. A loss would endanger PSG’s chances as they will drop below the Germans with City and Sporting likely to win at home and move above them.

Young Boys (36) vs. Red Star Belgrade (32)

YB (0 points; -23 GD): Switzerland’s representatives are already out.

Red Star (3 points; -10 GD): Serbia’s representatives are already out.

Matchday 8 TV schedule

All times Eastern

Champions League standings

Key: Positions 1-8 qualify for round of 16 while positions 9-24 qualify for knockout phase playoffs and positions 25-36 are eliminated.