Here’s how the wild-card spots, division standings and even the draft order look.
Here’s how the wild-card spots, division standings and even the draft order look.
Current NFC playoff picture
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Current AFC playoff picture
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
We’re down to one last game in the regular season, but the NFC’s top seed hasn’t been clinched quite yet. That will come down to Sunday night. The Vikings and Lions are facing off for the bye and the NFC North title. We’re tracking that race live and have you covered through all the swings, big plays and surprises. And catch up on other exciting races from earlier in the day.
Who will win the NFC North and earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed?
This one is simple. The Vikings and Lions face off Sunday night to close the regular season. The winner will be the division champ and top seed in the conference, getting a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. The loser will fall to the No. 5 seed as a 14-win wild card and play the Rams in the first round. (If these two teams tie Sunday, Detroit would be the NFC North champ thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.)
How the Broncos clinched the AFC’s 7-seed
The Broncos have clinched the final spot in the AFC field, beating the Chiefs Sunday. They made a statement with a 38-0 victory and will now be the No. 7 seed. Denver is set to play the Bills on the road in the wild-card round.
Denver made it interesting, losing in Week 16 and then again in Week 17. And the Dolphins (lost to the Jets) and Bengals (won against the Steelers) were alive until Sunday afternoon. But the Broncos ultimately closed the deal.
How the Bucs won the NFC South
With their 27-19 win over the Saints Sunday, the Buccaneers are the NFC South champs for a fourth consecutive season. It was dicey for a while, as Tampa Bay had to mount a comeback against New Orleans — but it pulled it off. The Bucs will now be the 3-seed in the NFC playoffs and play the Commanders in the wild-card round.
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, working the trade market and navigating the free agent pool. But the 2025 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin), and each team will have the chance to land a top prospect in Round 1.
Who is set up to take Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter? What about Miami’s Cam Ward and Penn State’s Abdul Carter? Here is the draft order for the league’s bottom 18 teams. The Titans officially have the No. 1 pick, followed by the Browns, Giants, Patriots and Jaguars.
Projected 2025 NFL draft order
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Methodology
Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics’ live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI’s projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, schedule and tiebreaking rules. The result is a live representation of a team’s various playoff, division and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2025 draft.
Our Latest Coverage
Edited by Ben Arledge and Dane Beavers.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Dominique DeMoe, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Munehito Sawada, Garrett Siegel and Rachel Weiss.
Illustrations by Josue Evilla. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Chris Harden and Matt Morris.