Nigel Farage has redrawn the political map in England. Sir Keir Starmer has to figure out how to respond to the dramatic surge in support for Reform UK.
Reform won its first by-election, overturning a huge Labour majority in Runcorn, albeit by the narrowest of margins.
The party also won its first elected mayors, including the former Tory minister Andrea Jenkins. This stunning performance included clinching control of 10 councils.
Significantly, the rise of Reform UK marks a realignment of British politics and the move to a multi-party system appears here to stay.
The old order in which the Conservative and Labour parties have taken turns in power has been undermined.
Both Labour and the Conservative parties urgently need to formulate effective responses.
Finding a viable way forward in an age of populism represents a considerable headache. Reform promise to lower taxes, cut regulation, fix the NHS, double defence spending, cut inflation and slash immigration.
Basically, a repeat of the mythical land the Brexit scam was supposed to deliver.
Keir Starmer’s response to Reform’s triumphs was “I get it”. We need to go further and faster with change.
Has he even stopped to consider that they might be delivering the wrong things? Going further and faster in the current direction is the problem.
Most of the public have no idea what the Labour party stands for. Focusing on Conservative policies such as welfare reform and austerity will not work for Labour.
Reform has successfully tapped into voters’ widespread disillusionment and disenchantment with the established political classes.
The Labour government have failed to connect with a deeply frustrated public. Many feel that their living standards are falling irrespectively of how hard they work. There is a yawning gulf between the wealthy elite and those struggling to get by.
The current government needs to be brave enough to harness resources through a redistributive tax system to reduce inequalities, provide affordable housing, fix the health and social care system and address the exploitation by water and rail companies.
A persistent criticism of Keir Starmer’s leadership is that he is a leader with no vision for the country, no emotional connection with the public.
What is Starmerism? What is his approach to governing? Rather than an ideology, we have been treated to a diet of vague and uninspiring soundbites or five-year targets.
You don’t have to agree with Atlee, Thatcher, Blair to recognise that they had a plan, a vision, a purpose.
Nigel Farage is catnip to a fawning British media. He is a disrupter, he creates headlines, provides great soundbites, provokes heated debate. However, rather than treating Farage as a celebrity, he and his party must be subject to serious scrutiny.
Reform are almost completely bereft of credible policies, and many of their messages are mixed and contradictory. What are their economic and social principles?
Their beloved Brexit has been economic disaster. Do they approve of Trump’s protectionism?
Being very good at pointing out what is wrong is one thing, but addressing systemic issues is an entirely different proposition.
Farage plays the part of an anti-establishment rebel standing up for the working classes, but he is a grifting opportunist.
The vast majority of these new Reform politicians will take up office at a local level. The main job of local councils is to provide services for local populations, and many of these authorities are desperately strapped for cash.
It is not glamorous: potholes, bins and social care are overriding issues, and these new local representatives will have to quickly adapt to this new reality.
If UKIP’s record in local government is anything to go by, they will struggle. A councillor in Nottinghamshire has already quit, one week after being elected.
To address the challenge posed by Reform, the Labour government will have to push the spotlight on to issues other than immigration.
What of the NHS? Are Reform planning to privatise the health service?
Reform have pledged to take UK out of ECHR, a legal framework that it helped to establish after World War II. Spell out the implications of voting to leave this imaginary enemy.
Previous Farage political vehicles fell apart due to in-fighting. Can Reform avoid a similar fate?
There have already been high-profile casualties. Arch-Brexiteer Ben Habib was axed as deputy leader in July and subsequently left the party in November 2024.
His main gripe seemed to be that in quest for power, Farage was willing to say anything. Who knew?
Denting Reform’s popularity won’t be easy, but it can be done.