Eagles vs. Commanders: Why Philadelphia has NFL conference title game history on its side vs. Washington​on January 24, 2025 at 7:02 am

For several reasons, the 2024 NFC Championship game promises to be a classic. Along with having star players on both sides, this game is unique in that it will pit two division rivals against one another. Sunday’s game between the Eagles and Commanders will mark the 20th time since the merger that two divisional opponents will play with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake. 

Eagles fans of a certain age can recall the first time their team faced a divisional foe in the NFC title game, when Philadelphia’s 1980 squad punched its first ticket to the Super Bowl after vanquishing the Cowboys. Washington fans have also been through this before; their team is 2-1 against division rivals in conference title games entering Sunday’s game in Philadelphia. Like the Eagles, Washington’s first NFC title was won at the Cowboys’ expense. 

The Eagles and Commanders split their regular season series. Philadelphia recorded a 26-18 win over Washington back in Week 11. The Commanders got some payback by upsetting the Eagles, 36-33, in Week 16 in a game that saw Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts leave early after sustaining a head injury. 

On paper, the Eagles seem to have the edge going into the rubber match. Philadelphia will be at home after capturing the NFC East division crown for a second time in three years. The Eagles nearly defeated Washington in Week 16 despite Hurts’ absence. And they have an MVP candidate in running back Saquon Barkley, who ran for 296 yards and four touchdowns against Washington during the regular season. 

Commanders vs. Eagles matchup breakdown: Which team has the edge at each position in NFC Championship?

Jared Dubin

History would also suggest that the Eagles have an edge, although there is a clear blueprint for a Commanders upset. Here’s a look at each previous conference title game between division foes since the merger, courtesy of CBS Sports Research. 

** — The teams played once during the regular season due to a strike-shortened season 

As you can see, division champions are 14-5 in conference title games against a divisional foe. Turnovers were a common theme in the five outliers. The underdogs were a combined +6 in the turnover margin while forcing at least two turnovers in each game. Out-rushing the opponent was also a common theme. 

The first wild card-team to win the Super Bowl, the 1980 Raiders forced three Chargers turnovers while not committing a single turnover themselves. Two of those turnovers were interceptions by Chargers Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Fouts, whose counterpart, Jim Plunkett, went 14 of 18 for 261 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. Plunkett kept his composure despite being sacked six times by the Chargers’ defense. 

Five years later, the Patriots forced six turnovers that included two interceptions of Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino, who was hoping to make it back to the Super Bowl for a second straight year. Patriots quarterback Tony Eason threw for just 71 yards, but he went 10 of 12 passing with three touchdowns. He was complemented by a running game that piled up 255 yards, led by Craig James‘ 105 yards on 22 carries. 

Two weeks removed from recording the greatest come-from-behind win in playoff history, the ’92 Bills forced five turnovers that included two picks of Marino, who suffered a second conference title game loss against a division opponent. Marino didn’t get any help from his running game, while Bills quarterback Jim Kelly leaned considerably on Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas, who churned out 166 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. 

The craziest outlier was the ’99 Titans, who were the only team to defeat the Jaguars that season. That’s right, the Jaguars were 15-0 against the rest of the NFL but were 0-3 that season against Tennessee. 

The Titans, who were +5 in the turnover margin against the Jaguars during their two regular season matchups, forced a whopping six turnovers in the AFC Championship game. Tennessee’s defense also recorded a safety of Jaguars quarterback Mark Brunell, which set up Anthony Mason’s 80-yard score on the ensuing kickoff that turned a tight game into a runaway. 

Green Bay’s 2010 team, the last squad to beat a division rival in a conference title game on the road, also won the turnover battle (that included a pick-six) while out-rushing their opponent, the Bears. And when they did commit a costly turnover early in the second half, Green Bay received a herculean effort from Aaron Rodgers, who made a likely touchdown saving tackle on Hall of Fame linebacker Brian Urlacher following Urlacher’s interception. 

It’s also worth revisiting how the ’83 Raiders defeated the Seahawks after getting swept by Seattle during the regular season. Los Angeles was a staggering -11 in the turnover ratio in its two regular season games against the Seahawks that included an eight-turnover outing in its first matchup. The Raiders committed four turnovers in the AFC title game, but they managed to force five Seahawks turnovers. Los Angeles also received a big game from Hall of Fame running back Marcus Allen, who tallied 216 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. 

Another difference that day was the presence of Hall of Fame cornerback Mike Haynes, who didn’t play in either regular season matchup against Seattle after being traded from New England to Los Angeles. Haynes played an integral role in the Raiders holding Hall of Fame wideout Steve Largent catching just two passes for 25 yards. 

The Commanders have a similar situation now with Marshon Lattimore, a four-time Pro Bowl cornerback that was acquired just before the trade deadline. Lattimore, who didn’t play in Washington’s Week 11 loss to Philadelphia, is coming off his best game since being traded to Washington. The Commanders are counting on Lattimore to neutralize the Eagles dangerous receiving duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. 

Will the Commanders join this list of outliers? If they are, they’re going to have to do a better job protecting the ball against the Eagles after being -4 in the turnover ratio against them during the regular season. They’ll also have to do better on the ground after getting out-rushed by Barkley and the Eagles in both games. 

But if we’ve learned anything about the 2024 Commanders, it’s that you shouldn’t doubt the capabilities of Jayden Daniels, who is only the second rookie quarterback in NFL history to lead his team to a conference title game. Daniels and the Commanders’ offense has played near perfect football so far during the postseason. Washington’s defense has contributed to the cause by forcing six turnovers that included five in last week’s upset win in Detroit. 

It may ultimately come down to whether or not the Commanders can force turnovers and contain Barkley while getting enough production from their own ground attack. If they can do those things, Washington’s improbable season may include the franchise’s first trip to the Super Bowl since 1992. If hey can’t, however, Barkley will likely be one win away from joining Emmitt Smith and Terrell Davis as the only rushing champions to win the Super Bowl.