How the resurgence of the Liberals and the fall of the NDP complicates federal election picture in B.C.​on March 25, 2025 at 1:00 pm

With the federal election set for April 28, parties are hoping to gain an advantage in a province that could prove critical in the final result.

Experts say the key thing to watch in B.C. will be the scale of the Liberal’s resurgence under Mark Carney and whether voters coalesce around the two main parties in an attempt to avoid vote-splitting, thus leading to a collapse of the NDP.

Current projections from a poll aggregating website, 338 Canada, suggest the Conservatives could win 22 seats in B.C., up eight from 2021, while the Liberals could take 19, a gain of four.

The NDP are projected to be reduced to one seat, with only incumbent Jenny Kwan expected to hold on in Vancouver East. This means party leader Jagmeet Singh in Burnaby South and longtime incumbents like Peter Julian in New Westminster could lose their seats.

The site has three ridings labelled as toss-ups, including longtime Green leader Elizabeth May’s seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands, NDP MP Bonita Zarillo’s seat in Port Moody-Coquitlam and Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s South Surrey-White Rock seat.

While May’s seat is a toss-up among the Greens, Conservatives and Liberals, the other two are a head-to-head fight between the Liberals and Conservatives.

Polling from the Angus Reid Institute shows the Liberals with 50 per cent of the vote share in Metro Vancouver compared to 30 per cent for the Conservatives and 18 per cent for the NDP. Across the province, the Liberals have a slight lead at 44 per cent vote intention to 41 per cent for the Conservatives and 12 per cent for the NDP.

Research Co. President Mario Canseco says the trends mean that ridings that were once safely NDP, like Victoria and Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, are now possible pickups for the Liberals and that the party could even challenge the Conservatives in ridings like Cloverdale-Langley and South Surrey-White Rock that were expected to be strongholds for Pierre Poilievre’s party.

He said the Conservatives have not done themselves any favours by rejecting star candidates like former Surrey Board of Trade CEO Anita Huberman and a 30-year veteran of the B.C. legislature, Mike de Jong, in favour of mostly unproven candidates.

The Liberals have already brought in well-known candidates, including former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.

“What makes this unique is we have the Liberals at a level that is higher than what they had with Trudeau in 2015,” he said, explaining he isn’t seeing the same level of vote splitting on the left between the NDP and the Liberals as in past elections.