Keith Gerein: Knack vs. Cartmell for Edmonton mayor shapes up to be fascinating clash of records, leadership style

Tim Cartmell vs. Andrew Knack.

Barring any late arrivals to the arena, the main event of the Edmonton mayor’s race now appears set, with former city councillor Tony Caterina also in the mix.

I’ll have more to say on the matchup as the campaigns start taking shape next month. But my early analysis is that this should be a fascinating showdown between two experienced, smart, articulate councillors who actually have a lot in common — maybe more than they’ll be willing to admit.

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Indeed, Knack and Cartmell are both seasoned hands at city hall these days, with nearly 20 years in office between them. Over those years, they have overseen both good times and crises, served in councils that approved some of the lowest tax hikes in modern history and then some of the highest, and helped to craft the City Plan that is now under intense scrutiny.

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And while Cartmell is more often classified a conservative and Knack a progressive, their voting records don’t entirely conform to those labels, nor are they wildly divergent from each other. In fact, Cartmell and Knack have worked together well at times. Just last December, they jointly crafted a motion for the city to initiate a zero-based budgeting process. Last week, they were on the same side of a vote to sell naming rights for city recreation facilities.

However, as we all know, for the next five months at least, it will be their differences that are under scrutiny far more than their similarities.

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Leadership style

I’ll start with Knack. By now, most Edmontonians know of his reputation as nice guy who really loves his job, is a fountain of institutional memory, works amicably with pretty much anyone, believes in the value of open debate, is humble to a fault, and defers to civility even with people who don’t offer the same in return.

And while those are great attributes to have as a person and as a city councillor, I don’t know how well they all travel to the mayor’s office.

What do I mean? Edmontonians have just seen four years of a nice-guy mayor who, despite good intentions, really struggled to forge an identity the city could get behind, and never fully embraced the political pulpit that is the only real power of the office.

When I say Knack is humble to a fault, I mean literally that. The big leadership question for him is whether he can adapt to a spotlight role that requires an ability to sell himself, set an agenda and flex his political muscles when necessary. Being conciliatory has its benefits, but people also need to know there is someone in charge.

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Cartmell faces almost the opposite questions. He has more of a natural command presence, but is also known for getting grouchy at times, not taking criticism particularly well and lacking the patience to properly sell his ideas. At various points this term, he has run afoul of his colleagues and faced accusations of not being a team player, though that’s not all on him.

In other words, while Cartmell should have no issue setting an agenda, trouble may come in generating sufficient cooperation to implement it, especially if the candidates in his new party don’t get elected alongside him.

Ah yes, the party. That is the other major difference between the two.

This race is not just Knack vs. Cartmell, but rather Knack vs. Cartmell’s whole party, not to mention his money.

One vs. 13?

As one of council’s most outspoken critics of municipal parties, Knack will be running as an independent. He is not averse to making endorsements, which could potentially create an impression among voters of a pseudo-slate, but I think he will need to be careful about tying himself to much of the current city council.

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His major edge is that most Edmontonians — at least from what I can gather — are still resistant or at least heavily reluctant toward the idea of municipal parties.

All the other advantages go to Cartmell on this front.

While Knack is trying to generate support city-wide on his own, Cartmell will have his group of 12 council candidates and their campaign teams door-knocking across the city on his behalf.

While Knack has only recently started to fundraise, Cartmell already has an impressive war chest and far greater spending potential to hire sophisticated political expertise — including strategist Stephen Carter — and flood the city with mailouts, billboards, broadcast advertising, rallies and so on.

The province rigged the rules this way.

Mayoral candidates are each allowed to spend $1 million during the campaign. Council candidates can spend up to $84,000. That’s already a lot of money, but parties get an additional $1 million in expenses, and they can spread it around any way they want.

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All told, Cartmell and a full slate of 12 council nominees can collectively spend $3 million on the election — a massive three-to-one advantage over Knack’s solo act.

And for those who think no one would raise or spend that much, I wouldn’t be so sure.

Recently published campaign disclosure statements show Cartmell on his own raised an impressive $447,000 in 2024 and spent $136,000, and that was before the race really began. It’s probably fair to assume he is doing even better in 2025, which means he and his new party could very well have millions at their disposal.

The challenge for Cartmell here is to convince skeptical Edmontonians that his decision to build a party won’t fundamentally harm the dynamics at city hall. I’ll have more to say on this later, but count me among the skeptics for the moment. Cartmell’s vision of a party that runs on collaboration over top-down discipline sounds OK in theory, but may prove much trickier in practice.

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Those are some of the big differences anyway, though there will be other points of contention, from city finances and tax hikes to provincial relations and zoning reform.

Personally, I’m looking forward to the campaign of two capable candidates offering differing visions of leadership, each with their own strengths and weak spots.

Cartmell is clearly in the stronger position at the moment, but is also taking some risks. And it’s still early days. Ultimately, these races are about who is the best fit for the times, and hopefully, Edmontonians will get a clear picture in the five months ahead, provided we can stay on a campaign of ideas over a campaign of noise.

kgerein@postmedia.com

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