Tim Doyle reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting guide and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET.
Tim Doyle reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting guide and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET.
Based on recent history, Sovereignty may have the perfect resume to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. The Bill Mott-trained horse is 5-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, and just like the previous four Kentucky Derby winners, he’s coming off a loss. Sovereignty was the favorite to win the Florida Derby after entering off back-to-back victories, but he finished second. Mage, the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, also finished second in the Florida Derby, which has produced a record 25 Kentucky Derby winners.
The Kentucky Derby 2025 is set to take off from Churchill Downs with a post time of 6:57 p.m. ET. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite, followed by Sovereignty and Sandman (6-1) in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Tim Doyle has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
Doyle is an experienced horse bettor, having lived less than 20 miles from both Belmont Park and Aqueduct Racetrack in New York. He prefers to play multirace wagers, from doubles to Pick 6s. And in 2020, he had the biggest score of his life, hitting a $150,000 Pick 5 at Oaklawn Park. During the 2023 Triple Crown, Doyle was on fire. He correctly called 15-1 longshot Mage to win the Kentucky Derby and 8-1 longshot Arcangelo to win the Belmont Stakes. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Doyle has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets for how to bet on the Kentucky Derby 2025. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Doyle’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Journalism, even though he is the 3-1 favorite. Journalism has an impressive resume with four straight victories, but he has an inexperienced Kentucky Derby team behind him. Jockey Umberto Rispoli will be making just his third career start at the Kentucky Derby and trainer Michael McCarthy is bringing his second horse to the Kentucky Derby. Neither have won the first leg of the Triple Crown and McCarthy’s Endlessly finished ninth last year, while being ridden by Rispoli.
Journalism won the Santa Anita Derby, but that final prep race hasn’t been a great producer of Run for the Roses victors. No horse since Justify has won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Santa Anita Derby in 2018. Justify, a Triple Crown winner, is one of the greatest horses of all time, so it would be irresponsible to compare any non-Triple-Crown winner to him. Before Justify, California Chrome (2014) was the last horse to parlay a Santa Anita Derby victory into a Kentucky Derby crown and given the odds, Doyle is staying away from Journalism on Saturday. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Instead of chasing the favorite, Doyle’s top pick is a double-digit longshot who “has a massive closing kick.” Doyle is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Doyle’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mage as a 15-1 live longshot in the 2023 Run for the Roses.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | Scratched |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | Scratched |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Baeza | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
2025 Kentucky Derby contenders
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza