Top horse racing expert reveals picks for 2025 Kentucky Derby horses like Journalism, Sandman and Rodriguez
Top horse racing expert reveals picks for 2025 Kentucky Derby horses like Journalism, Sandman and Rodriguez
The 2025 Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs on Saturday, with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET. The 20-horse 2025 Kentucky Derby field is set after last weekend’s post draw. The Santa Anita Derby winner has gone on to win the Run for the Roses 10 times, and trainer Michael McCarthy will hope that this year’s winner, Journalism, can make it 11 and give him his first Kentucky Derby victory. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite, according to the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Kentucky Derby favorites have won 56 of the previous 150 editions of this race, including six of the last 12.
Should you include Journalism in your 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks, or should you target another one of the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses like Sovereignty (5-1), Sandman (6-1) or Luxor Cafe (15-1)? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling, considering his domination of this race.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on sites like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One surprise: Demling is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who barely cracks the top 10 finishers in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez is trained by Bob Baffert and is considered to be the legendary trainer’s top contender in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial in 2025, has a second-place finish at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and showed at the San Felipe Stakes.
However, Demling has significant concerns about the three-year-old colt’s performance at the San Felipe Stakes in March. He finished well behind Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism on a track that is similar to Churchill Downs. That’s a big reason why Demling isn’t considering Rodriguez among his top Kentucky Derby picks. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Demling just revealed in his 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction for Sandman, who is third in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 at 6-1. Sandman is coming off his best performance, winning the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on March 29. He showcased tactical and closing speed in that race, defeating a quality field to punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Sandman did not win either of his other two graded stakes races, finishing second in the Southwest Stakes and third in the Rebel Stakes. He is trained by Mark Casse, who won the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 2019, but is still seeking his first Kentucky Derby victory. Sandman is a deep closer who wants a fast early pace in the Run for the Roses.
Demling has also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for Journalism, the 3-1 favorite. Journalism has five starts in his career, winning four of those races. He’s coming off a victory at the Santa Anita Derby in April, which is run over 1 1/8 miles. The winner of the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby 10 times.
Journalism is trained by Michael McCarthy, who will try to claim his first Kentucky Derby victory on Saturday. McCarthy is coming off his first Kentucky Derby appearance after Endlessly finished ninth in 2024. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a huge double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |