Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year’s Run for the Roses, has made his picks and bets for the Kentucky Derby 2025 at Churchill Downs
Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year’s Run for the Roses, has made his picks and bets for the Kentucky Derby 2025 at Churchill Downs
Four horses this century have won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds or longer, but there are not any horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field at that number. There are nine 2025 Kentucky Derby horses at 30-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds following the post position draw ahead of Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. Despite those four longshots winning in the last 20 years, favorites have won 56 of the last 150 editions of the race. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite atop the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 following his wins in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. The 2025 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs.
A Kentucky Derby favorite has not won since Justify in 2018, which capped a stretch of six straight wins by the favorite. Should you back Journalism with your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Menez is not keen on taking closers to win the Kentucky Derby, as they are dependent on a fast pace up front and generally lose ground on the far turn. He notes that there are many closers who could be the victim of that this year, but Sandman is the one he is against the most.
Sandman is one of the favorites due to his Arkansas Derby win, which came after an “enormous pace meltdown.” Menez told SportsLine that made Sandman’s victory look more impressive than it was, making him an overvalued horse. The expert is going in a different direction with his pick to win the Run for the Roses.
Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade in the Kentucky Derby 2025. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |