Lorne Gunter: Insiders suggest Premier Smith working to limit chances of separation, which she claims to oppose

Why now? Why has Premier Danielle Smith chosen this moment to make a big deal out of the possibility of Alberta waving goodbye to Confederation?

Part of it is strategic: Hit the “new” Liberal government with the possibility of the country breaking up to see how many concessions the UCP government can wring out of them.

But there are big risks with that approach. What if the Libs don’t cave on pipelines or Smith’s other demands (which I don’t expect them to do)? Does Smith truly unleash the separatist threat?

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And could she be jumping the gun, again.

Two of Smith’s earlier sovereigntist initiatives — a provincial pension to replace the CPP and a provincial police force to replace the RCMP — failed in part because she rushed out too quickly ahead of public opinion.

So is she acting similarly prematurely on a separation referendum?

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I don’t think so.

First, Smith was all in favour of the pension and police force but claims to be opposed to separation.

And second, there is already more support for separation in Alberta than there was for a pension plan or police service. Smith isn’t promoting a new idea.

Many Albertans have flirted with separatist sentiment for decades. Remember after Pierre Trudeau returned to power federally in 1980, central Albertans elected MLA Gordon Kesler, a separatist, in a 1982 byelection.

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Latent separatist sentiment only deepened last Monday when the Alberta-loathing federal Liberals won a fourth consecutive term.

So Smith’s plan for a 2026 referendum on Alberta’s future is not as far “out there” as her pension and police suggestions.

But that still doesn’t explain why now, exactly?

After long talks with UCP insiders, I believe there are two main reasons: To quiet the hardliners in Smith’s own party who would be prepared to push separation right now. And to give people organizing various separatist movements a very short runway before a possible referendum, thereby reducing the chance the separatists would win.

The pro-independence hardliners have to be persuaded not to break off and form their own party that would split the vote on the right. Therefore, Smith is taking their anger seriously,

Meanwhile Smith walks a very fine line in the other direction, too. If she gives separatists too much rope, she runs the risk of letting the NDP to portray itself as the only true federalist choice in Alberta. Already, of course, the Laurentian elite — Prime Minister Mark Carney, Ontario Premier Doug Ford, the CBC, Globe and Mail, Toronto Star and others — are scolding Smith for being insufficiently loyal to their vision of Canada.

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Inside the UCP, the thinking is that the best way to forestall all of this is to acknowledge that frustration is high after the federal election, while at the same time rushing the separatists’ planning.

Holding a referendum in 16 to 18 months might give separatists time to collect enough signatures to get an independence question on a provincewide ballot (the provincial government won’t do it for them). Yet that wouldn’t likely leave separatists enough time to convince a majority of Albertans to vote to go. And if a separatist referendum fails, there is typically about a 10-year grace period in which it is unlikely another referendum can be held.

The next provincial election, too, is scheduled for 2027. Let separatism fester for two years rather than just one, and it will pose more of an electoral problem for the UCP’s re-election.

Smith is riding two or three tigers at once.

I keep being told, even by Alberta-friendly and conservative commentators, that separation has no chance of succeeding.

I wouldn’t be that sure.

Support for separation is already at 30 per cent, even though there is no separatist movement in Alberta, no credible leader and no specific offence from the “new” Liberal government.

Give separatism a solid leader, an organized party and some power-grab by the Liberals in the oilpatch and watch what happens.

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