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NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket: Top-rated simulation predicts surprising upsets, March Madness picks, sleepers​on March 17, 2025 at 12:11 am

When does the March Madness 2025 schedule start, and when are 2025 NCAA Tournament brackets due? The 2025 March Madness bracket begins on Thursday, March 20

​When does the March Madness 2025 schedule start, and when are 2025 NCAA Tournament brackets due? The 2025 March Madness bracket begins on Thursday, March 20   

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No conference had more teams in last year’s March Madness bracket than the Big 12 with eight. However, none of them advanced to the Elite Eight after the conference dealt with several major NCAA Tournament upsets. The Big 12 enters 2025 March Madness with more depth than last year, having added four former Pac-12 programs, including powerhouse Arizona, which joined holdover contenders like Kansas, Houston and Iowa State. Can any Big 12 program make it past the Sweet 16 in the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and make fans forget about last year?

The Jayhawks were ranked No. 1 for the first month of the season, only to fall out of the poll entirely, and enters the 2025 NCAA bracket as a 7-seed. Meanwhile, 1-seed Houston has made the Sweet 16 in the last five NCAA Tournament brackets, but its run has often stopped there. Could a lower-seeded Big 12 school like No. 9 Baylor bust March Madness 2025 brackets with a deep run? Before you make your 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida, and No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin last year. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past six tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run last year. It nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16 and was all over Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2025 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: the First Four winner of North Carolina vs. San Diego State will knock off No. 6 Ole Miss in the first round. UNC and SDST are both 11 seeds who were among the Last Four in, but they’ll get to face a Rebels teams which faltered down the stretch. Ole Miss went just 3-5 over its last eight games, with a defense that allowed 82 ppg over that stretch, compared to 68 ppg over its first 25 games. San Diego State has a win over No. 1 Houston’s elite defense, while UNC averages over 80 points per game, so either team could find ways to exploit the Rebels’ defense and prevail.

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: Creighton beats Louisville in the all-important 8-9 matchup. The 9-seed Bluejays have one of the most accomplished players in NCAA history in Ryan Kalkbrenner. He joined Patrick Ewing as the only players in Big East history to win four conference Defensive Player of the Year awards, and he also averages nearly 20 points a night. As for the Cardinals, their record is propped up by the weakness of the ACC as Louisville went just 2-4 versus teams from power conferences outside the ACC. See which other 2025 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a team that’s only ever won a single tournament game, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.

 

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