‘Northern Leg’ to Trans Mountain pipeline attracts interest amid brewing trade war

A long-shelved proposal to build a northern branch off the Trans Mountain pipeline system to the northern British Columbia coast is attracting renewed interest as the Canadian oilpatch and federal and provincial governments grapple with a response to new trade headwinds with the United States.

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The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) may have sufficient capacity to support a so-called TMX Northern Leg, which would involve constructing a new lateral pipeline branch off the mainline near Valemount, B.C., to carry crude to an export terminal in Kitimat, according to sources familiar with the federally owned pipeline system.

The 300,000-to-400,000-barrel-per-day (b/d) expansion was part of former pipeline owner Kinder Morgan Inc.’s original plans for a multi-stage TMX program, which was laid out in previous service agreements with shippers and in 2011 submissions to the federal regulator over pipeline tolls and tariffs.

However, by the time Kinder Morgan filed its official 2013 application for the project with the National Energy Board (NEB), the Northern Leg was not part of the proposal.

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At the time, the company said it favoured twinning the existing 1,500-kilometre pipeline south due to the risk of higher costs and greater cost uncertainty associated with the northern route, according to its submission to the NEB.

But sources familiar with the pipeline say the Northern Leg remains an option and that the TMX was built with sufficient capacity along its length from Edmonton through Jasper National Park and Mount Robson Provincial Park to handle it.

Trans Mountain Corp. (TMC) on Friday said any significant changes to the pipeline system, including an expansion, would be subject to regulatory approval.

“The Northern Leg is not part of Trans Mountain’s plans at this time,” the company said in a statement. “For any project to be economically viable, it will require significant regulatory reform to happen in Canada. Many projects are technically achievable.”

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TMX currently extends from a storage terminal in Edmonton southward through interior B.C. to the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, B.C.

The pipeline began operating in 1953, with a capacity of just 150,000 b/d, though subsequent upgrades doubled its output by 2008.

By then, however, production from Alberta’s oilsands had significantly expanded and the pipeline was regularly in apportionment — the industry’s term for when demand for access to the pipeline exceeds its capacity — and Kinder Morgan was actively exploring options for the major expansion known as TMX.

Facing regulatory delays and legal setbacks, Kinder Morgan eventually walked away, resulting in Ottawa stepping in to purchase the project for $4.4 billion in 2018.

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The expansion project nearly tripled capacity on the line to 890,000 b/d, but the price tag ballooned to $34 billion by the time it went into service in May 2024.

Despite widespread criticism about the cost, the project has been hailed by the sector and governments for helping to alleviate the discount on Canadian crude caused by years of pipeline constraints and a lack of access to global markets.

Following United States President Donald Trump‘s threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, including a 10 per cent tariff on energy commodities, the oil and gas sector and governments have once again turned to the stubborn problem of Canada’s near-complete reliance on the U.S. market.

Those concerns have fuelled talk across the country of reviving old plans to build oil pipelines and other energy projects, though headlines have been dominated by talk of TC Energy Corp.’s Energy East and Enbridge Inc.’s Northern Gateway.

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Canada’s major pipeline firms have largely been circumspect in their recent statements, warning that new investments are unlikely to occur without significant regulatory change and consultations with Indigenous groups on mechanisms to enable ownership.

There have also been calls to expand TMX, Canada’s only pipeline to tidewater on the West Coast, but few outside the sector seem aware of Kinder Morgan’s former Northern Leg proposal.

Proponents of the Northern Leg say it may be a more viable option than some other projects because of the cost savings associated with piggybacking on the existing line’s infrastructure. While it would require constructing a new terminal on the northern B.C. coast, expanding flows on the existing line could also be challenged by limitations and congestion at the marine terminal in Burnaby.

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“It’s probably one of the more likely things we could do in a reasonable timeframe,” Richard Masson, former chief executive of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, said. “And it’s going in the right direction, because the market is Asia; that’s where the growth is, and so that’s where we should be pointing.”

In response to recent inquiries about boosting volumes on TMX, Trans Mountain executives said capacity could be increased on the existing line by between 200,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d by using drag-reducing agents and increasing pumping capacity.

In a statement Friday, an official with the Department of Finance said the government supports Trans Mountain in running the pipeline on a commercial basis in a way that maximizes its value. It also said the project has helped Canada capture a fairer value for its resources.

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“Efforts to expand capacity may require approvals by the Canada Energy Regulator, other federal and provincial regulators and agencies, and consultations with Indigenous communities, depending on the project,” the official said.

— With files from John Ivison. 

• Email: mpotkins@postmedia.com

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