The previous version of the Pac-12 was a mediocre basketball conference, perhaps not even as strong and the next edition.
The new Pac-12 beat the old Pac-12 on Selection Sunday, with the collection of schools joining the conference in 2026 earning four bids to the NCAA Tournament and the group of 10 departed universities receiving just three.
Arizona, Oregon and UCLA made it from the old guard.
Gonzaga, Utah State, San Diego State and Colorado State represented the next version of the conference, with Boise State nearly making it a quintet.
While the three departed schools earned better seeds than the four incoming members, the edge in total bids for the newcomers should not come as a surprise. In the years prior to its demise, the Pac-12 was a mediocre basketball league.
It struggled in the regular season and, with the exception of that magical March of 2021, floundered in the postseason.
Arizona, UCLA and Oregon carried the conference’s banner with sporadic help from the likes of USC, Washington, Arizona State and Colorado.
In the final half-decade of its previous existence, the Pac-12 produced 19 tournament participants — an average of just 3.8 per year. And that figure includes each season’s automatic qualifier, meaning the conference averaged a paltry 2.8 at-large bids over the span.
When it returns to competition for the 2026-27 season, the rebuilt conference will feature the most successful program in the West over the past two decades, Gonzaga, plus a slew of quality teams moving over from the Mountain West.
San Diego State has made the NCAAs for five consecutive years and was the national runner-up in 2023.
Colorado State is in the tournament for the third time in the past four years.
Utah State has participated in five of the past six tournaments — under four different coaches, no less.
What’s more, the restructured Pac-12 will confer an advantage for the newcomers: Their NET rankings won’t be dragged down by the bottom feeders scheduled to remain in the Mountain West and West Coast Conference. (Except for, ahem, Fresno State.)
That said, there are potholes on the road ahead.
The revenue-sharing era won’t be easy for programs outside the power conferences, especially those required to support a football roster. (In contrast, Gonzaga can plow most of its cash into basketball.)
Colorado State faces the distinct possibility that coach Niko Medved will bolt for his alma mater, Minnesota, later this month.
Can Utah State continue to churn out tournament-caliber seasons despite losing one coach after another?
How much longer will San Diego State’s Brian Dutcher deal with the grind? He turns 66 before next season.
Projecting the Pac-12’s success across the second half of the decade is tough enough knowing the eight schools committed to the conference. But with the membership question unresolved, the process grows substantially more difficult.
Will the Pac-12 add one school in all sports and stop there? If so, how much consideration will be given to the quality of its basketball program?
Or might the conference prioritize football success for the eighth member, then add two or three schools with strong basketball chops?
Boosting the basketball membership to nine or 10 will help with scheduling and the quantity of inventory available for prospective broadcast partners, but football pays the bills. It’s worth roughly 80 cents of every $1 spent on media rights.
Given the immense prestige that comes with reaching the College Football Playoff, the rebuilt Pac-12 cannot afford to invite a school that will undermine its football brand and schedule strength.
Viewed from any angle, the expansion path is narrow. As currently constructed, the new Pac-12 is stronger in basketball than football (relative to other conferences), but the latter matters exponentially more to the bottom line.
It’s simply not enough for the new Pac-12 to be comparable on the court, if not superior, to its former version.
Selection Sunday provided a victory, but the greatest challenge remains unresolved. By the time the NCAAs conclude, there might be a morsel of clarity on both media rights and membership.
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