Trading the inflation report: Where JPMorgan sees the market going under different CPI scenarios​on February 11, 2025 at 9:47 pm

Traders at the country’s largest bank outline various scenarios as to how the market might react to tomorrow’s CPI report.Traders at the country’s largest bank outline various scenarios as to how the market might react to tomorrow’s CPI report.   Wall Street is looking toward Wednesday’s consumer price index report for insights on the economy. With inflation concerns at top of mind for investors, the CPI report could jolt the market either higher or lower. The data is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Dow Jones economists expect the headline inflation rate to have risen 0.3% month over month in January and 2.9% from the prior year. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to have increased 0.3% from the previous month and 3.1% year over year. If the core CPI print comes in-line with estimates, that would mark the lowest levels since April 2021. The report comes amid trader fears that President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs on major trading partners including Mexico, Canada and China, will put upward pressure on inflation. With this in mind, JPMorgan traders outlined where they see the S & P 500 moving after the release. Here are the scenarios based on various month-over-month core CPI readings: Up 0.4% or more (5% chance): The S & P 500 would fall between 1.5% and 2% in this case, according to JPMorgan. A jump in inflation this large would likely be powered by a surge in shelter prices, as well as certain deflationary core goods such as medical costs and alcohol becoming inflationary. Treasury yields would also “react violently” as this inflationary scenario would be perceived to lead to a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting, per JPMorgan. Between a 0.33% and 0.39% increase (25% chance): JPMorgan sees the broad market index shedding 0.75% to 1.5%. This outcome wouldn’t have as big of an impact on the bond market, but would likely jolt equities to the downside, said JPMorgan. “This print is unlikely to fully eliminate all cut expectations for FY25, but likely pushed implied probabilities to be a coin flip as to whether we get one cut in FY25.” A gain between 0.27% and 0.33% (40% chance): This baseline scenario would keep Treasury yields range-bound, according to the traders. They also see the S & P 500 ranging from a 0.25% loss, to a 1% gain under this outcome. “The upper range is not quite Goldilocks but given the resilience of the market YTD stocks likely push higher led by [small-cap stocks].” An increase between 0.21% and 0.27% (25% chance): JPMorgan traders believe this CPI reading would be “Goldilocks” for the market. The S & P 500 would rise from 1% and 1.5%, according to their estimates. A gain of 0.2% or less (5% chance): A lower-than-expected core CPI reading would boost the S & P 500 between 1.25% and 1.75%, per JPMorgan. The dollar would also weaken on this report, likely boosting emerging markets, the traders said.