The temperature surrounding trade tensions between Canada and the United States may have been lowered, slightly, in recent weeks with less “51st state” talk from President Donald Trump — but Canadian travellers don’t seem to be in a forgiving mood. Read More
One of the broader issues facing the entire airline sector is the phenomenon of Canadians cancelling holiday plans, or simply opting to not book spring and summer trips into the United States
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One of the broader issues facing the entire airline sector is the phenomenon of Canadians cancelling holiday plans, or simply opting to not book spring and summer trips into the United States
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The temperature surrounding trade tensions between Canada and the United States may have been lowered, slightly, in recent weeks with less “51st state” talk from President Donald Trump — but Canadian travellers don’t seem to be in a forgiving mood.
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At least, not yet.
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Since the beginning of February, demand for air travel to the U.S. has dropped significantly and “it has not recovered since,” WestJet CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech said this week.
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“There are some markets that are picking up a bit, but I think it’s still early days,” von Hoensbroech told reporters Tuesday after speaking to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.
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“So it’s not a change in trend up to this moment.”
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The head of the country’s second-largest airline delivered an address about the state of the company — and Canada’s airline industry — to the local business group, discussing the challenges, opportunities and major developments ahead.
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That included WestJet officially completing its integration of Sunwing Airlines on Wednesday, two years after the acquisition was initially announced.
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One of the broader issues facing the entire airline sector is the phenomenon of Canadians cancelling holiday plans, or simply opting to not book spring and summer trips into the United States.
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The trend began earlier this year after Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico — and, later, other countries — and it was exacerbated by the president’s repeated talk about Canada becoming a U.S. state.
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Read More
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“When all the rhetoric started around 51st state and tariffs and so on, we could see in our bookings how angry Canadians became,” von Hoensbroech told the audience.
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“We saw that literally . . . thousands of Canadians that had their vacations booked or planned into Florida and California, thought, ‘Ahh, maybe Jamaica and Mexico are also nice sun destinations.’ So they cancelled those, which was a short-term issue for us.
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“We then shifted our own flights from Florida into the Caribbean, and from California and Arizona into Mexico . . . However, it’s not net neutral. So we did see a significant impact in our business.”
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Canadians booked air travel to other countries, but it did have an impact, he added.
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“If I just look into how our next couple of months are booked, then I see sort of mid-to-high teens (percentage) less bookings than there were a year ago,” he said after the speech.
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The phenomenon of Canadians opting not to travel to the U.S. has been showing up in cross-border travel statistics for several months.
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The country’s largest airline, Air Canada, reported earlier this month that it was seeing booking on transborder markets drop by low teens percentage points, on average, for the following six months.
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In April, return trips by Canadians by air fell 20 per cent compared with the same month a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada preliminary figures.
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Return trips by automobile plunged 35 per cent — the fourth straight month of year-over-year declines in both categories.
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A research note by ATB Economics on Wednesday pointed out the number of Canadians returning from south of the border through the Calgary and Edmonton airports dropped 5.6 per cent during the first four months of 2025 from year-earlier levels.
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And it’s not just Canadian flyers showing their displeasure with the trade war by shifting their travel patterns.
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Through April, the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. by both air and road fell 22 per cent, and for Alberta, it decreased eight per cent from the same period last year, said ATB deputy chief economist Rob Roach.
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The trade conflict will lead to more Albertans travelling to other countries outside the U.S., but it will also likely see more consumers taking vacations and spending their tourism dollars inside the country, Roach said in an interview.
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“I do think it’s a temporary thing, but it will last and go (on) as long as the trade war is hot,” he said Wednesday.
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“They are still tariffs and we are one tweet away — or Truth Social post away — from this blowing up again. So, until there’s a sense that things are back to normal, I think we’ll see this reflected in the actual numbers.”
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After Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Trump in Washington earlier this month, the annexation discussion subsided from the White House.
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However, the U.S. president mentioned it again on social media Tuesday, saying Canada could join his country’s Golden Dome defence system for $61 billion but it would cost “ZERO DOLLARS if they become our cherished 51st state. They are considering our offer!”
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How long could a travel boycott continue?
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“We do assume that at some point in time, there will be some kind of agreement, hopefully,” von Hoensbroech added.
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“What we have seen in the past in our industry is that whenever there’s a change in demand pattern for political reasons, it’s usually transitional, and long-term demand trends usually flow back.”
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Susan Bell, a senior vice-president with consultancy Rystad Energy, said the decline in travel to the U.S. isn’t just coming from Canada, but also from fewer travellers coming from other countries — and it’s showing up in less jet fuel demand.
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About 20 per cent of U.S. aviation fuel demand is typically tied to international flights.
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“Foreign travel into the U.S. has dropped dramatically,” Bell said at a Rystad conference in Calgary on Wednesday.
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“Europeans are not travelling to the U.S. People from Mexico are not travelling to the U.S., and that is really impacting international jet fuel demand in the U.S.”
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Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.
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