Join us over the next five weeks for an in-depth look at the candidates, hot-button issues, and a breakdown of the policies and campaign promises in four key electorates.
Join us over the next five weeks for an in-depth look at the candidates, hot-button issues, and a breakdown of the policies and campaign promises in four key electorates.
The focus will be on Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese’s national campaigns over the next five weeks, but the true contests will be on the ground in local communities.
Today, we launch our Victorian hot seats blog.
Over the next five weeks, we will take an in-depth look at several Victorian seats – including Wills, Goldstein, Kooyong and Bruce – examining the candidates, hot-button issues in the communities and, importantly, the parties’ campaign and policy responses.
All will be crucial in shaping the national result.
These seats – with distinct demographics and local challenges – promise to be unique contests.
They also illustrate scenarios unfolding around Australia this federal election. Can Liberal candidates wrest control of the party’s once blue-ribbon seats back from the teals? Will the Greens continue their march into Labor heartland, and what role will the Gaza war play in the vote? And, crucially, can Labor reinforce enough seats to stop the Coalition gaining the electorates it needs to form majority government?
The Age will have senior reporters on the ground in these electorates until the May 3 poll date, explaining the national campaign through the prism of these communities.
More on these key seats from our reporters now.
To follow the national campaign, read our live federal election blog.
To explore how close the contest is in your neighbourhood, search our interactive electorate map. And to read about other tight battles around Australia, here are the 12 seats to watch closely.
Western Australian senator Fatima Payman arrived at the closing ceremony of the Ramadan markets in Dandenong about 8.30pm on Wednesday and was quickly swarmed by fans.
Men, women and children posed for selfies and chats with Afghanistan-born Payman in the street known as the Afghan Bazaar. Some asked for help with their visas and others wanted to know how to vote for her.
“It’s good she is here,” one young man said amid the hustle. “Is she Labor? Greens?”
Payman defected from Labor in July when the party refused to recognise Palestine as a state, and over what she described as Labor’s “indifference to the greatest injustice of our times”.
She has since launched her own political party, Australia’s Voice, and was in Melbourne to promote her Victorian Senate candidate Mohamed El-Masri.
On the sidelines, Payman said there was a low level of political literacy among voters, but she was certain there would be a swing against Labor in seats like Bruce.
“A lot of people are saying no to the major parties because they want an alternative,” she said.
“It’s those safe seats that should be scared because people are waking up to the reality on the ground. They feel like they’ve been taken for granted for far too long.
“I’ve actually had quite a lot of people say the Labor Party has made so many promises but haven’t delivered, especially when it comes to visa issues, visa queries, immigration being quite a hot topic in this electorate, which just indicates that people are no longer apathetic towards politics, they’re no longer disengaged.”
On Bruce’s Liberal candidate, Afghanistan-born Zahid Safi, Payman said: “I haven’t met the guy, I’m sure he’s cool, but I don’t know how anyone could justify Peter Dutton’s stance on immigration.”
Payman also criticised Dutton’s support for Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“I don’t think anybody from this community would welcome a Liberal candidate,” she said.
In the crowd, the views were more mixed.
Mohammad Kashmiri voted Labor at the last election, but will be voting Liberal in May after losing his construction job earlier this year. He hasn’t been able to find work since, and believes the Liberal party has a better chance at improving the economy.
“If there’s no construction, no one goes to Bunnings, no one gets jobs,” he said.
“No one is perfect, but in general he [Dutton] is good.
“In Gaza, it’s a bad thing that is happening. We should stop trading with Israel.” But Kashmiri said the war would not drive his vote.
Adil Hijazi came to the markets with his young family, and will be voting in this election for the first time after recently becoming an Australian citizen. Born in Pakistan, Hijazi is a software engineer who will vote Labor.
He didn’t know local Labor candidate Julian Hill, but said Albanese has a “calm and quiet nature”, and the number one issue for Hijazi is a government that promotes “mutual respect” between religions and minorities.
He spent four years studying in the United States and said Labor is in a better position to stand up to the US, as Dutton was copying Donald Trump’s policies.
“They [Liberals] want people to come back to the office. We cannot blindly follow the US. We have to see what’s right and what’s not right.”
Farhnaz Zamani was helping her friends with a stall at the markets, and has seen many politicians make appearances over the past 10 days. She isn’t impressed.
“You can see families coming with a smile on their faces, enjoying the cultural event, traditional clothes, food, dancing,” she said.
“But in some regard I can see people don’t like it when political people interfere or manipulate the event for their desire. It’s difficult to trust political people. During the campaign, they try to convince people with their work, but in reality when they get the power, they do the opposite of what they promised.”
Zamani hasn’t yet decided who she will vote for.
She said she is “definitely not” voting Greens because she wants a mainstream party, and will weigh up what the Labor and Liberal candidates offer. Just because the Liberal candidate was born in Afghanistan, she said, doesn’t mean that will secure her vote. She wants a party with policies that will benefit the whole country.
A handful of volunteers from lobby group Muslim Votes Matters were in attendance, handing out flyers and information about the movement. One volunteer said he didn’t want to be interviewed, but when asked about the reception, he said with a smile: “Good, but people are more interested in their kebabs”.
Only the Greens are committed to stopping all new fossil fuel projects. Only Labor argues it can deliver real climate action in government. And only an independent promises to push whoever is in power to go further. Those were the core messages from the candidates at Wednesday night’s Kooyong Candidates Forum, which wrapped up a short time ago.
The full 90-minute session is available to watch on Facebook, but one question from a first-time voter particularly captured each candidate’s pitch: “I am a first-time voter. I care about climate because I know that future generations will bear the brunt. Why should I vote for you?”
Here are the three candidates’ answers:
Clive Crosby (Labor candidate):
“Labor is the only party of government in Australia that has consistently demonstrated — not just in this term, but whenever we’ve been in office — that we are serious about acting on climate change. The Liberals will simply deny and bury their heads in the sand. So yes, vote for Labor in both the House and the Senate if you want real action on climate rather than some unrealistic nuclear nonsense.”
Jackie Carter (Greens candidate):
“Since our inception in 1992, the Greens have been the party of the environment and climate action — that alone is reason enough to vote for us. But to follow up on something Clive said, we will be there to push Labor further and faster on climate action because they won’t do it themselves. We need to keep the Liberals out and force Labor to act — that’s why you should vote Greens.”
Monique Ryan (Independent, incumbent MP):
“Every two years, the government puts out a report on intergenerational inequality, and every two years, it gets worse. Young Australians are facing not just a climate crisis, but also a cost-of-living crisis, a housing crisis, and a HECS crisis. Meanwhile, we have an aging population and a narrowing tax base, and young people are expected to bear the brunt of that. People like me care about that—and that’s why we’ll fight for effective tax reform, strong climate action, and real solutions to these challenges. Young Australians shouldn’t have to bear this alone.”
Meanwhile, Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer, who is trying to unseat Ryan, pulled out of the event to instead host a “tele-town hall” with shadow treasurer Angus Taylor. Taylor was in Canberra while Hamer tuned in from Melbourne.
Moderators at the Hawthorn forum took a few pointed jabs at Hamer’s absence throughout the night, as her empty chair remained on stage. At the close of the event, one moderator remarked, “Finally, I want to say thank-you to the candidates who have been brave enough to attend the forum this evening and face the audience’s questions,” drawing laughter from the crowd.
Hamer’s advisors later informed me that 3,117 people picked up the phone for the mass call, which ran at the same time as the forum. (Some attendees even received calls mid-event.) A total of 50 questions were submitted, with about 15 answered.
If you were on that call, I’d love to hear how it went.
If Thomas Street in Dandenong is anything to go by, Payman’s former party has got the seat in the bag.
Nine posters for Julian Hill, compared to three for Greens candidate Rhonda Garad and zero for Liberal candidate Zahid Safi.
At the end of the street, where the closing ceremony of the Ramadan night markets is being held on Wednesday night, was community leader Aman Ullah Najimi (left) who will be among those voting for Hill.
“When you email him, he answers in one to two hours. Most people don’t respond at all,” Aman said.
“He answers emails good and quick, and he’s a nice guy.”
Aman said he wasn’t aware of Labor’s record on Gaza, a key focus in some seats with large Muslim voting cohorts, but said the party had made improvements on the treatment of refugees. “With the Afghan community, he’s always been good.”
After a short chat about politics, he gave me a tub of vanilla ice-cream covered in cream and pistachios but refused payment. “When Afghans give you something, you don’t pay!”
The Kooyong Candidates Forum at the Hawthorn Arts Centre has just kicked off, and it’s a packed house.
The candidates have taken their seats on stage — well, most of them.
A sign with Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer’s name sits in front of an empty chair, making for quite the statement.
As I reported earlier, Hamer pulled out of the event at lunchtime today, opting instead to join shadow treasurer Angus Taylor for a different engagement.
I caught up with Hamer at a Liberal funding announcement at a nearby football club just before the forum began this evening.
The Liberals announced $3 million towards Boroondara Council’s restoration of the Michael Tuck stand at Glenferrie Oval if elected.
When I asked her about the last-minute change of plans, her advisers quickly stepped in. Instead of Hamer answering, Liberal senator Jane Hume — who was there alongside shadow minister for health Anne Ruston — answered.
“Angus Taylor, who’s just done his National Press Club [speech] today — the budget in reply — and this was the only night we could get him to talk economics directly with the community,” Hume said.
The event I’ve confirmed is a tele-town hall—essentially, a mass phone call to Kooyong residents at 7.30pm (coincidentally, the same time as the forum started).
Taylor and Hamer will be on the line, fielding pre-screened questions. Ten minutes before the call, Kooyong residents received a text from Hamer.
“Hi – Amelia Hamer here. I’ll give you a call at 7.30 tonight. It’s your chance to quiz me and the shadow treasurer about our plan to Get Australia Back on Track,” the text read.
Back at the Hawthorn Arts Centre, event convener Jenny Smithers, from local climate group Lighter Footprints, acknowledged Hamer’s absence as she opened proceedings.
“Shame on her,” someone in the crowd called out.
A stream of the forum can be found here.
Nothing says campaign launch like some ribbon cutting, takeaway pizza and photos with children.
Bruce’s Liberal candidate, Zahid Safi, has posted on Instagram just now that he has officially launched his campaign in Berwick, expected to be the area in the electorate with the most Liberal voters.
“A huge thank you to everyone who joined us, volunteered their time, or sent their well-wishes. This campaign is powered by people like you — passionate, hopeful and ready for change,” Safi wrote.
“Our doors are now open and not just for the campaign. Local residents are welcome to book a time to meet with me and raise any concerns or ideas you have for our community. I’m here to listen and to act.”
Safi was campaigning with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and MP for La Trobe Jason Wood in the electorate earlier in the week, and has spent the week promoting the party’s policies on crime, the economy and fuel costs through social media. On Monday, Wood and Safi were heckled as they attended an event at a Doveton mosque, with some worshippers furious their Eid celebrations were being politicised during an election campaign.
I’m headed to the closing ceremony of the Dandenong Ramadan markets tonight, where political figures from across the aisle are expected to show up. We’re going to ask community members what they think of the choice of candidates – stay tuned!
Some breaking news out of Kooyong this afternoon.
Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer has withdrawn from a scheduled candidates’ forum tonight at Hawthorn Arts Centre, where she was to speak alongside independent MP Monique Ryan, Greens candidate Jackie Carter and Labor candidate Clive Crosby in front of an expected audience of 500 people.
An email seen by The Age, sent by Hamer to the event organisers, Lighter Footprints – a local climate action group – stated that she could no longer attend because she had been asked at short notice to attend an event with shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, “where we will be engaging with members of our local community about the cost-of-living crisis and the Liberal economic plan”.
Hamer asked that a statement be read out on her behalf, apologising for her absence and reaffirming her stance on climate policy:
As you know, I am committed to addressing climate change as part of a future Liberal government. Our plan includes a balanced energy mix of renewables, including solar, wind and batteries, but also a long-term investment in zero-emissions nuclear technology and unlocking gas as a transition fuel.
Political observers may recall a similar situation during the 2022 election when then-Liberal MP for Kooyong Josh Frydenberg declined to attend a Lighter Footprints candidates’ forum, dismissing it as akin to one of Ryan’s political rallies.
Unlike Frydenberg, however, Hamer had initially confirmed her attendance.
Invitations had been sent, and bios and photos provided – until she pulled out at lunchtime today.
We’ve asked Hamer and the Liberals for details about this last-minute event. We’ll keep you posted.
The Facebook skirmishes that kick off in every federal campaign have erupted with gusto in the seat of Wills after the Australian Christian Lobby letterboxed pamphlets around Brunswick – hardly the conservative lobby group’s natural base.
On the Brunswick Neighbourhood Network Facebook group on Tuesday night, resident Aoife Rogers suggested a “communal Brunny bonfire” for the ACL pamphlets which declared, “Male and Female Matter. The Greens Don’t Agree”.
Almost 150 Brunswick residents swiftly agreed with the sentiments, with many saying the ACL flyers made them keener to vote Green in the May 3 poll.
“They’re not completely useless, I found the points helpful to remind myself why I preference the Greens,” another posted.
Rogers said on Wednesday morning they were saddened the post had been removed.
Page administrators told The Age they had removed the post before Facebook could, fearing the platform would take action against the group if they didn’t. The page notes it is for “finding lost pets, borrowing of tools, dog walking or pet feeding, help with gardening/shopping/renovating, house sitting or mail collection” and other community-minded things.
The post would have set off more than just a bonfire, said one administrator of the Facebook group.
The administrator, who The Age has chosen not to name, stressed they weren’t censoring the group but had to act to avoid Facebook shutting it down. They said that while all member viewpoints were welcome, administrators were bound by Facebook’s “community standards”.
Over on another Facebook page, the Brunswick Good Karma Network, user Lars Goerigk posted a torn-up ACL pamphlet and said: “My response to the transphobic flyer the Australian ‘Christian’ Lobby placed in Brunswick letterboxes today.” It was swiftly followed by scores of heart emojis and supportive comments. That post remains up, though who knows for how long.
The Age spoke with Jasmine Yuen, the ACL’s Victorian director, who said the group was letter-boxing against the Greens in Wills because of their fear the party would ultimately form a minority government with Labor.
“We campaign in Wills not because we are discriminatory, bigoted nor transphobic but because the families there deserve to know the truth,” Yuen said, before pivoting to concerns about “gender clinics”.
She said many of the Greens’ policies were “anti-Christian, anti-family and, most concerning, against our Biblical values”.
Wills is one of the group’s “target seats” in the ACL’s bid to “reduce the influence of the Greens”.
The Greens’ candidate for Wills, Samantha Ratnam, said the ACL was an “extreme right-wing lobby group [that] doesn’t understand our community”.
“At a time when many people are struggling to afford life’s basics, like food, healthcare and housing, it is galling to see tens of thousands of dollars wasted on this hateful propaganda, and just cements the ACL’s slide into irrelevance,” Ratnam said.
Last week’s corflute drama has given the Liberal camp fresh campaign material in Kooyong.
In case you missed it, Monique Ryan’s husband, Peter Jordan, was caught on camera taking one of the campaign signs of his wife’s key challenger, Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer, from a nature strip in Camberwell.
Both he and Ryan apologised, but Liberal HQ isn’t letting the moment go to waste.
Overnight, new corflutes have popped up across Hawthorn alongside Hamer’s usual signs. These additions carry a cheeky message: “Monique, please DO NOT take this sign!”
The signs feature official Liberal Party authorisation at the bottom – along with a teal colour scheme for extra effect.
However, a savvy local has pointed out to me that regulations do not permit having two corflutes on the same property!
A spokesman for the City of Boroondara says council is seeking legal advice on whether the signs are a breach of the Boroondara Planning Scheme.
This stunt comes on the heels of another high-profile Liberal campaign move.
Two weeks ago, the Liberals erected an enormous anti-Ryan sign on the Tower Hotel on Burwood Road in Hawthorn.
The “Teals Revealed” ad claimed that Ryan had voted with the Greens 77 per cent of the time in parliament, as part of a broader campaign by the Liberal Party to discredit the Climate 200-backed independents.
On March 21, Ryan’s campaign organised a snap rally of dozens of supporters outside the pub, protesting against what Ryan described as a “nasty piece of attack advertising which misrepresents my voting record in parliament”.
(For what it’s worth, last year, The Age and Sydney Morning Herald analysed the voting records of each teal independent. It showed Ryan had voted with Labor on either the second or third reading of substantive legislation 70 per cent of the time.)
Today, the Hamer campaign also escalated its ground game with a major takeover of Camberwell Junction.
A large vacant shop in a prominent position at the intersection has been transformed into Hamer’s official campaign base.
Today, tradies are hard at work wrapping the entire shopfront – all 200 metres of it – in campaign branding.
Adding to the symbolism? Ryan’s electoral office is just a stone’s throw away.
There were more embroidered headscarves and leather sandals than Greens T-shirts at the minor party’s Bruce campaign launch in Lynbrook, in Melbourne’s outer south-east, on Tuesday night.
About 100 people crammed into a community centre for pakoras and pastries to listen to speeches from NSW Greens senator David Shoebridge, Victorian Greens senator Steph Hodgins-May and local candidate Rhonda Garad.
The vast majority of attendees were from the local Hazara community, estimated to make up at least half of Bruce’s 10,000 Afghan-born residents.
Earlier that day, Labor MP Julian Hill posted a photo to Instagram from the Federation of Hazara Council of Australia’s “Voices of Survival” reception.
While the Greens would need an electoral miracle to win Bruce – a swing of more than 20 per cent – Garad said she had never seen more energy, and described the election as “one like no other”.
“This is the election where Australians finally stop supporting the two major parties that have long since stopped supporting us,” she said.
“The minority communities, the Muslim communities, the people who are doing it tough with cost of living – they’re all standing up.”
Shoebridge asked the crowd if anyone knew how long it took to process visas for parents. “Forty years!” one man yelled back.
“Close,” Shoebridge said. “The average wait time is more than 30 years. People are dying on those lists.”
Shoebridge promised the Greens would push to shorten the wait time to 12 months, to raucous applause. A man shouted from the back in the Hazaragi dialect – translated for me by a fellow attendee – “You’re doing a fantastic job!”
A local councillor and Dandenong resident of more than 30 years, Garad has built support in the Hazara community by pushing Dandenong Council to become one of the first councils worldwide in 2022 to formally recognise the Hazara genocide in Afghanistan.
The Hazara community was also galvanised earlier this year by a unique blend of local and global issues, following disagreement over the Thomas Street shopping strip being named the “Afghan Bazaar”.
There were two opposing petitions, each with more than 30,000 signatures. One claimed the name was offensive, the other said it was vital to the area.
Filmmaker Barat Batoor started the petition to rename the strip and said the issue had turned many locals off the Labor Party after ALP councillors opposed the name change.
“That sent a big and strong message to our community that the representatives that we have been voting for, for 25 years, do not value the presence we have here,” Batoor said.
For many in the room, it was their first time attending a political event. Some could not speak English at all. Some said refugee and immigration policies were key drivers of their votes.
Tradie Juma Mohsini said this was his first time voting after arriving in Australia six years ago. “It’s about our nation,” he said. “We don’t want Labor.”
Another man, Dost Mohammadi, wearing traditional dress, said he had been in Australia on a bridging visa for 12 years and was desperate for permanency.
Mohammadi has not been able to see his family in Pakistan since arriving in Australia. When asked why he had attended the Greens launch, he responded: “It’s hope.”
Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel braved an AMA (Ask Me Anything) on Reddit on Tuesday night, and some of the questions were just as wild and varied as you’d expect.
Taking part in an AMA is increasingly popular, particularly among independent MPs keen to get their policy platforms out there. Reddit has AMAs scheduled this month for Jacqui Lambie, Penny Allman-Payne, David Pocock, Allegra Spender, Zali Steggall and Kate Chaney. Peter Khalil is the only member of a major party scheduled to participate in one.
Daniel fielded questions for an hour, although she skipped answering some of the more out-there ones, including whether she would vote to legalise marijuana and whether she had taken paid employment from Al Jazeera.
Instead, she weighed in on supermarket price gouging, wage increases, antisemitism and tax reform.
On supermarket price gouging, Daniel noted there was no formal definition in Australia of what constituted “price gouging” or at what point a price was “excessive”.
“Charge the ACCC with specifically investigating that, and then if it is happening, consider legislation,” she said.
When asked why she and other independent teals had voted against wage increases, Daniel said: “I voted for childcare wage increases and have supported other increases in feminised industries like aged care, and also voted for Fair Work Act changes to support the care sector, particularly under the Secure Jobs Better Pay Bill.”
On indexing income tax brackets Daniel said: “I support indexation of tax brackets to reduce pressure on income, especially for young people. I support tax reform along the lines of the Henry Review.”
One popular question was whom Daniel would support to form government in the event of a hung parliament.
“It will depend on the policies they put on the table between now and the election, as well as how the numbers shape up on the day,” Daniel said.
Several Reddit users raised questions about Israel and Palestine, with Dudidudisela asking: “In light of the distressing rise in antisemitism following the October 7 attacks, I was wondering what steps you have taken, or plan to take, to support and reassure the large Jewish population in Goldstein?”
Daniel pointed to her website which details her work with Goldstein’s Jewish community and states: “I am committed to standing with the Jewish community and fighting to keep them safe.”
However, Daniel did not respond to Dudidudisela’s further question: “I’d be interested to hear your perspective on the Australian government’s approach towards the current conflict in Gaza.”
There was time, though, for the most pressing issues of the day: meat pie or sausage roll?
“At the office, sausage roll from our local bakery, Molly Denes.”