‘Welcome change’: A look at why Calgary will see a near 40-degree upward temperature swing this week​on February 18, 2025 at 7:32 pm

Temperatures in Calgary are forecast to take a significant leap this week after a frigid Family Day long weekend.

A warm Pacific air mass will drive up temperatures “rapidly” over the next couple of days, climbing above the freezing mark beginning Thursday, Environment Canada meteorologist Justin Shelley said while explaining why the change will occur.

It has been a “very cold” February, said Shelley, noting that temperatures have yet to crack -6 C. Among the lows this month were -28.5 C on Feb. 10 and -28.1 C on Family Day.

“But we have not reached -30 C as of yet this winter and, based on the forecast, unlikely to do so (soon) . . . we’re going to be far away from that temperature heading into the end of the week,” he told Postmedia on Tuesday.

Wednesday will still be a chilly -13 C, but temperatures are expected to climb in the days following.

Thursday is expected to have a daytime high of 5 C, followed by 7 C on Friday and 9 C on Saturday. By Sunday and Monday next week, temperatures may creep into the double digits, with daytime highs of 13 and 11 C respectively.

“Definitely going to be a welcome change for most, I suspect,” said Shelley.

As for the signature Chinook arch, when warm, dry winds emerge from the Canadian Rockies warming the Prairies, Shelley expects it will be visible in the western sky late Wednesday or early Thursday.

“We’ll certainly be warming up . . . but we’ll likely have a bit of wind as well, some westerly gusts, possibly up to 40 km/h starting on Thursday,” Shelley said.

With daytime temperatures well above freezing, there will be a “significant amount” of snow melt, Shelley said.

However, he cautioned that temperatures in some areas will still fall below the freezing mark, especially overnight.

“We’ll be in a bit of a freeze-thaw cycle, which might make some walkways, sidewalks and road conditions a bit poor, off and on,” said Shelley.

He said the near 40-degree temperature swing over a few days is not too abnormal for the province, but is certainly notable.

For the rest of February and the start of March, Shelley predicts “more above freezing and well above average temperatures.”

February has been “well below normal” so far based on data up to Feb. 17, with temperatures almost 14 C below average for the month.

That would make it the third coldest February on record.

“However, with this warm-up starting later this week and expected to last through the end of the month, we’re going to see those averages climb a bit,” said Shelley, adding that it remains likely to be a colder than average February overall.