People prepare for wild weather as BoM forecasts Alfred to hit Queensland later this week, with state’s capital in its pathTropical Cyclone Alfred LIVE updates and latest newsHow to prepare for a cycloneWhen and where is Cyclone Alfred likely to hit?Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastFor almost two weeks, Tropical Cyclone Alfred has ambled about the Coral Sea.By Wednesday afternoon, as Alfred’s landfall loomed, meteorologists mapping the trajectory of Tropical Cyclone Alfred were predicting it would move directly over Brisbane, with the city roughly aligning with the centre of the storm. Continue reading…People prepare for wild weather as BoM forecasts Alfred to hit Queensland later this week, with state’s capital in its pathTropical Cyclone Alfred LIVE updates and latest newsHow to prepare for a cycloneWhen and where is Cyclone Alfred likely to hit?Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastFor almost two weeks, Tropical Cyclone Alfred has ambled about the Coral Sea.By Wednesday afternoon, as Alfred’s landfall loomed, meteorologists mapping the trajectory of Tropical Cyclone Alfred were predicting it would move directly over Brisbane, with the city roughly aligning with the centre of the storm. Continue reading…
For almost two weeks, Tropical Cyclone Alfred has ambled about the Coral Sea.
Early on Sunday morning the cyclone passed below the Tropic of Capricorn, way off-track for the typical path a cyclone might take to the north Queensland coast.
Authorities in Brisbane say 20,000 properties in the city are at risk of inundation by storm surge or flooding as Alfred continues its ominous track towards the populated south-east Queensland coast.
Updated tracking maps on Wednesday morning show Alfred maintaining its intensity, speed and likely path to landfall.
It is still on track to reach the coastline about 1am on Friday somewhere between the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane as a category-two storm. The model also shows Alfred potentially crossing just south of Brisbane.
High tides due in the early hours of Friday are a particular concern for those in waterside communities.
When is Tropical Cyclone Alfred going to hit?
Forecasters from the Bureau of Meteorology predicted on Tuesday that Tropical Cyclone Alfred would turn towards the south-east Queensland coast later that day and make landfall as a category two late on Thursday or early Friday morning.
Communities from Sandy Cape south to Grafton, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Byron Bay, were in the watch zone.
This remains a forecast, which can change over the coming days.
People should keep updated regularly about changes to potentially impacted areas.
Potentially life-threatening floods
As well as winds and storm surges, affected areas were preparing for intense rainfall that the bureau warned could lead to life-threatening flash flooding.
Alfred could dump up to a metre of rain over the elevated ranges and hinterland in parts of south-east Queensland and north-east NSW, according to Weatherzone’s Anthony Sharwood.
“That is an absolutely huge amount – for example, Brisbane’s entire annual rainfall is just over a metre,” Sharwood wrote.
As of Tuesday morning, the bureau was forecasting a maximum rainfall total of up 480mm between Wednesday and Sunday in Brisbane and a maximum total of 545mm for the Gold Coast during the same period.
Why is this a big deal?
Tropical cyclones are typically a tropical phenomenon and the fact that Alfred could reach the coastline hundreds of kilometres south of the tropics could be quite dangerous.
There is a huge population in the potential path of the cyclone of more than 4 million people, most of them living in and around Brisbane. And the Queensland capital is not particularly well-equipped to cope with a cyclone.
Residents of north Queensland and the Northern Territory are well-versed at preparing for cyclones; most have a ready-made cyclone kit with emergency supplies, and many buildings and homes are constructed to withstand strong winds.
Brisbane is also used to storms, but doesn’t cope particularly well with them. The city has severely flooded three times (in 2011, 2017 and 2022) in the past 15 years. Predictions of 300mm to 600mm of rainfall in some areas, after a particularly wet summer, are worrying authorities.
It is unusual to be taking the threat of a cyclone this seriously this far from it making landfall. But authorities are taking this very, very seriously.
When was the last cyclone in Brisbane?
It is rare – but not unheard of – for tropical cyclones to reach landfall south of the tropics.
The closest a cyclone track has come to Brisbane was in 1990, when Tropical Cyclone Nancy tracked erratically towards the Queensland capital, before making a southward turn just off the coastline and never reaching landfall.
Tropical Cyclone Wanda – the cause of Brisbane’s historic 1974 floods – crossed the coast near K’gari and Hervey Bay. A severe tropical cyclone crossed the coast near Tweed Heads in 1954.
It is far more common for a tropical cyclone to cross the coast north of the Tropic of Capricorn and return overland to the south-east as a destructive low storm. This occurred with Cyclone Debbie in 2017.
How should people prepare?
The Queensland government has a guide for residents to get ready for a potential cyclone, which includes packing a kit with enough basic items for your family to use for three days at home without power.
Residents should make sure loose items are secured or put away.
Will schools and services be closed?
Some universities have already announced they will close from Tuesday night, while others are still making plans.
The University of the Sunshine Coast will close its campuses from 10pm Tuesday until at least Sunday, a spokesperson said.
“All scheduled teaching will be moved online with staff working from home where possible,” she said.
Queensland University of Technology is closing all its campuses and facilities from midnight on Tuesday until at least Friday.
The University of Queensland said it would also close all its locations from midnight Tuesday.
Griffith University will close its campuses from midnight Tuesday until Monday morning, while Bond University on the Gold Coast will cease in-person classes at 12pm Wednesday and close the campus at 3pm ahead of the expected landfall of Cyclone Alfred overnight Thursday, a spokesperson said.
Premier David Crisafulli has committed to daily updates in regards to potential school closures.
Schools were scheduled to remain open on Wednesday.
The Queensland government has a dashboard for parents and families that advises of any school closures.
Brisbane City Council announced that all CityCat and ferry services in Brisbane would be suspended from Monday night “until further notice” so the vessels can be moved to safety.
The council will remove 11 of its CityCats from the water to be placed on hardstands and dock the other 16 inside protected berths. The five smaller KittyCats will be moored at a marina.
“I understand this decision will inconvenience people, but the safety of our passengers, crew and vessels must be a top priority,” the lord mayor, Adrian Schrinner, said on Monday.
Other parts of the city’s public transport system were still operating.
‘Unprecedented’ sand bag collection
Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner says residents collected twice as many sandbags on Monday than were collected on any day leading up to the 2022 floods.
“An incredible 74,000 sandbags were collected on Monday, which is the highest daily demand in Council history,” the mayor posted on social media.
Speaking on ABC local radio on Tuesday morning, he said the “unprecedented” demand was contributed to by the fact that Brisbane was giving away pre-filled bags while neighbouring councils were supply sand and un-filled bags.
“It’s important residents take this threat of Cyclone Alfred seriously and get prepared, but I remind residents to be patient and to not take more sandbags than they need,” Schrinner wrote on Facebook.
The council has opened four extra sandbag filling stations across the city in addition to its five existing depots.
Dams spilling but no pre-emptive releases
Several ungated dams and reservoirs in the south east, including Cedar Pocket dam near Gympie and Wappa dam on the Sunshine Coast, were already overflowing, authorities said Tuesday morning.
“This is a normal part of operations at Seqwater,” the spokeswoman said. “Once ungated dams reach 100% capacity, water will spill safely over the spillway and into the river or creek system it was built on, as it was designed to do.”
Gold Coast’s main drinking water source, the ungated Hinze Dam, was 99.4% full on Tuesday morning while the gated dams of Wivenhoe and Somerset at 86.7% and 80% respectively. The spokesperson said the latter two both had 100% flood storage compartments – designed to temporarily store floodwater and later release it at a controlled rate – available.
Seqwater told the Courier Mail on Monday it would not be pre-emptively releasing water.
Wivenhoe, the largest water storage body in south east and the main supply of water for Brisbane and the greater Ipswich area, was built after the city’s devastating 1974 floods, partly for flood mitigation.
However a Commission of Inquiry would later find that water was released at the wrong times the deadly 2011 floods disastrous floods, contributing to the city’s inundation.
All Seqwater recreation sites are expected to be temporarily closed from Wednesday for public safety.
Theme parks close
Village Roadshow said its Gold Coast theme parks, including Movie World, Sea World and Wet’n’Wild, would operate as normal on Tuesday but close from Wednesday to Friday. It said Sea World’s critical support team members would be working over this period “to ensure the welfare and wellbeing of the animals in our care”.
Dreamworld, White Water World, and SkyPoint will be closed from Wednesday, 5 March, with plans to reopen on Saturday, pending further weather assessments.
Read more of Guardian Australia’s Tropical Cyclone Alfred coverage: