How one GTA riding turned from ‘obvious slam dunk’ for Conservatives to ‘much more confusing’​on April 1, 2025 at 8:00 am

But just like the grey skies above her campaign office along the historic downtown blocks of Newmarket, Ont., her party’s forecast of flipping the riding has become clouded from the bright blue it beamed only a few weeks ago.

It still comes down to affordability

“We couldn’t ask for more from our candidate. Couldn’t ask for more from our volunteers. The real confusing element is the federal scene,” said Blake Koehler, president of the party’s riding association, who has been helping on conservative campaigns since 1982.

“It was such an obvious slam dunk in favour of Conservatives a month-and-a-half ago, and between (Liberal Leader Mark) Carney getting a he’s-not-Justin (Trudeau) bounce and the involvement of  (U.S. President Donald) Trump, it’s just made things more confusing, much more confusing.”

The events have all swung in favour of the Liberal candidate, Jennifer McLachlan, a local small-business owner, who replaced incumbent Tony Van Bynen, who has served as the riding’s MP since 2019.

What began as a campaign where McLachlan was hearing worries about the cost of living and expected doors slammed in her face from the “hate” she saw rising against Trudeau, has instead turned into her witnessing a “Liberal resurgence” from when she was named the party’s candidate last October.

People now view the Liberals as more focused on the economy, she says, and appear satisfied with Carney, whose name comes up often when speaking with voters, as does the issue of tariffs.

While her name will be on the ballot, McLachlan said she knows who supporters are really picking.

“This vote’s for him,” she said bluntly of Carney, while knocking on doors along one of Newmarket’s more affluent streets.

“It takes the pressure off.”

As a federal riding, Newmarket—Aurora boasts a population of around 127,000, with the town of Newmarket home to nearly 90,000 of that. It also represents a close battle between the Conservatives and Liberals, with the Tories losing by fewer than 3,000 votes in the 2021 and 2019 federal elections.

Newmarket Mayor John Taylor — who is the brother of the Liberal candidate in a neighbouring riding — says while housing affordability and homelessness remain a significant concern for the community, the threat of U.S. tariffs has taken the top spot.

The region itself is home to automotive companies such as Magna International and TS Tech Canada. At least 5,000 jobs in Newmarket, which represents 10 per cent of the jobs in town, are tied to export-based companies, according to figures supplied by Taylor’s office.

The impact of people’s worries about potential job losses and what tariffs could mean for the economy in general has already taken effect, he said.

“If they were thinking about hiring a new person, starting a business, buying a house, they’re pulling back,” Taylor said in an interview from his office.

His is also one of the communities around Toronto debating whether to remove its American flags as a symbolic stand against Trump’s ill treatment of Canada. Taylor said he plans to vote in favour of it next week when it comes to the giant one hanging above the ice at a local arena.

At the same time, amid the nervousness people have been feeling, Taylor says he sees the community coming together as it did in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“People went from feeling glass-half-empty about their country to glass-half-full, or full.”

But it was during those months coming out of the pandemic, with Canadians reeling from rising interest rates, skyrocketing food prices and millennials feeling they like would never own a home, where Conservatives saw voters turn to them for solutions.

For Cobena, affordability remains at the core of what she says she hears most about, even with concerns about tariffs.

“It still comes down to affordability,” she says, “What’s the concern: that the prices are going to rise even further, right? And they’re not going to come down. So when you sort of peel back the onion, it still comes down to affordability.”

Another issue remains crime, she said, and car thefts in particular. She noted it was only recently that a friend called her to say their car had been stolen, “again.”

When it comes to the campaign, riding president Koehler said the situation south of the border has meant not only having to champion the policies Poilievre has announced, but also address people’s questions on who will be best suited to go up against Trump.

While the Liberals’ McLachlan embraces the fact that the campaign is being dominated by federal leaders in both Washington and Ottawa, Koehler acknowledges that makes it is more difficult getting voters to see Cobena as their local candidate.

However, that is where campaigning comes in, he says.

“We didn’t get into this a week ago.”

Another factor is how Poilievre himself is viewed. While those who have met the Conservative leader are impressed, most voters are going from general impressions.

“If you look at older female demographics, the concern is that he’s harsh, and that he can be harsh in the way he comes across, which is surprising for us, because those of us who have met him and talked to him don’t see that whatsoever,” Koehler says.

As for questions being asked by some Conservatives about whether Poilievre is focused enough on Trump, Koehler says what remains important is unity in the campaign and he’ll be watching to see what direction comes from party headquarters.

“You have to go to where the puck is,” he added.

National Post

staylor@postmedia.com

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