Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year, reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby bets and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs
Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year, reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby bets and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs
The 2025 Kentucky Derby is nearly upon us. Roughly eight months of prep races will culminate in a 1 1/4-mile dash at Churchill Downs on Saturday. No horse in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field has a better resume than Journalism, who already has three graded-stakes wins to his name, highlighted by a victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds and there are only two other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses with odds lower than 10-1, Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty (5-1) and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman (6-1).
This will be the 151st Run for the Roses and post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET. Who are the top 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders and how should you construct your 2025 Kentucky Derby betting tickets for the first leg of the Triple Crown? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Sire Tapit has been one of the most productive studs in the country since he was retired in 2005, but his progeny have typically needed even longer distances than nine furlongs before their bloodline shined. Tapit has produced four Belmont Stakes winners in his career, but none of his offspring has won the Kentucky Derby.
Running style and post position could also be an issue for Sandman since he’s a deep closer who drew into traffic on the outside in post No. 17. At Oaklawn Park, Sandman took advantage of a blistering early pace to go from eighth to first against a nine-horse field. However, he’ll likely face more capable early speed at Churchill Downs. In addition, the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup is full of closers who will all try to make their move late, which could leave Sandman hung out wide or force him to weave through traffic. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Sired by Liam’s Map out of Scat Daddy mare Linda, Burnham Square broke his maiden in the third and final race of his two-year-old season at Gulfstream Park. He won the Holy Bull Stakes there just over a month later to start his three-year-old season, but suffered a surprising fourth-place setback at the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Burnham Square rebounded to score a win at the Blue Grass Stakes that qualified him for the Run for the Roses. His two graded stakes wins make him one of the more proven 2025 Kentucky Derby closers. Having jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is also an advantage since the Churchill Downs-based rider comfortably guided Mystik Dan through a crowd and squeezed by on the inside to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby as an 18-1 longshot. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |