Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year, reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby bets and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs
Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year, reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby bets and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs
For the sixth year in a row, the Kentucky Derby field will feature a horse that didn’t race as a 2-year-old. Grande has just three starts to his name, all coming this year. He won the first two and then placed in his lone graded stakes race, the Wood Memorial. Grande will try to defy history since just three horses in Kentucky Derby history have prevailed after not racing as a juvenile. The latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds have Grande at 20-1 for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. The 2025 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET.
Grande will face 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites like Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1). Mystik Dan won last year as an 18-1 longshot. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Sire Tapit has been one of the most productive studs in the country since he was retired in 2005, but his progeny have typically needed even longer distances than nine furlongs before their bloodline shined. Tapit has produced four Belmont Stakes winners in his career, but none of his offspring has won the Kentucky Derby.
Running style and post position could also be an issue for Sandman since he’s a deep closer who drew into traffic on the outside in post No. 17. At Oaklawn Park, Sandman took advantage of a blistering early pace to go from eighth to first against a nine-horse field. However, he’ll likely face more capable early speed at Churchill Downs. In addition, the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup is full of closers who will all try to make their move late, which could leave Sandman hung out wide or force him to weave through traffic. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. He’s one of the few horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field with multiple graded stakes victories, including a Grade 1 win in the Blue Grass Stakes in his last start. The Blue Grass has produced 23 Kentucky Derby winners, the second-most of any prep race.
Burnham Square has finished in the money in five of six career starts and already has Churchill Downs experience from a maiden race there in November. Burnham Square’s sire, Liam’s Map, won multiple Grade 1 races in 2015, while last year saw the former’s jockey win the Kentucky Derby. Brian Hernandez Jr. rode Mystik Dan to victory in 2024 and is an underrated candidate to go back-to-back with Burnham Square, giving the horse value as one of the potential 2025 Kentucky Derby sleepers. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |