Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year, reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby bets and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs
Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year, reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby bets and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs
The first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown begins on Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs. The 2025 Kentucky Derby will pit 3-year-old horses against one another on a 1 1/4-mile track. The favorite to claim the first leg is Journalism, who has won four straight starts and is 3-1 according to the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. However, the favored horse hasn’t won the last six editions of the Run for the Roses, so you certainly want to be aware of other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses. Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) are the only other colts with single-digit odds, while there are several massive longshots you could back with 2025 Kentucky Derby bets.
Potential 2025 Kentucky Derby sleepers include Tampa Day Derby winner Owen Almighty (30-1) and UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona (30-1). Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. That Arkansas win seems to be heavily weighted by many, which has led to Sandman’s short Kentucky Derby odds 2025 since his overall body of work is less than impressive. Across eight starts, he hasn’t won half of them, and across five graded stakes races, he has just one victory.
Sandman’s top Equibase Speed Figure of 104 is middle-of-the-road, as seven others in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field have at least the same mark. This Mark Casse-trained colt has experienced connections, but neither Casse (10 starters) nor jockey, Jose Ortiz (nine starts), have ever prevailed at the Run for the Roses. When you add in that Sandman’s sire, Tapit, placed a disappointing ninth at the 2004 Kentucky Derby, there are plenty of reasons to bypass Sandman with 2025 Kentucky Derby bets.
Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade in the Kentucky Derby 2025. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |