Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year’s Run for the Roses, has made his picks and bets for the Kentucky Derby 2025 at Churchill Downs
Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year’s Run for the Roses, has made his picks and bets for the Kentucky Derby 2025 at Churchill Downs
Entering the 2025 Kentucky Derby, massive longshots have outperformed expectations in recent editions of the race. There have been just three Derby winners that had greater than 50-1 odds in the 150-year history of the race, but two of those have come since 2019. Country House (65-1) prevailed that year, while Rich Strike (80-1) won in 2022. So, it could be financially beneficial to keep tabs on not just those horses whose names appear at the top of the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds board for Saturday’s race (6:57 p.m. ET).
There are not any horses at 50-1 or longer in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, but there are a whopping nine horses at 30-1. As for the favorites, Journalism (3-1) has the shortest Kentucky Derby 2025 odds following the post draw, where he drew post No. 8. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Trainer Mark Casse has not been successful at this race in his career, with all 10 of his previous starters failing to hit the board. He has an even steeper hill to climb this year, as no horse from post No. 17 has ever won the Derby.
Menez notes that closers often lose massive ground in an attempt to pass horses on the far turn, and Sandman is the most likely to suffer that fate on Saturday. He will also have to out-duel Sovereignty, who already outran Sandman in the Street Sense Stakes at this track last year.
Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade in the Run for the Roses. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |