Wales Versus Ireland Saturday 2.15 (Virgin Media 1, BBC1)
Two weeks ago, in a comment on my post here on the second round of the Six Nations and on Facebook, I suggested that Simon Easterby could make up to 14 changes to the team that beat Scotland with only Aki retained, and still have a decent chance of beating Wales. Had a known that McCloskey was back fit, that would have been fifteen changes, an entirely new starting XV.
To some, that smacks of arrogance, but the point was that with increasing strength in depth and an established system of coaching and play throughout the squad, that team would not have been appreciably weaker. I would far rather play a team where everyone had a lot to play for, than one where senior players were simply going through the motions and hoping not to get injured for the France match.
I didn’t think for a moment that Easterby would follow my advice – making wholesale changes is simply not the Irish way, but in the event, he has met me halfway making seven changes in all and naming Dan Sheehan as Captain despite the presence of current and former Munster (O’Mahony, Beirne), Connacht (Cian Prendergast) and Leinster (Ryan) captains in the squad.
There is nothing like putting your own stamp on things. It’s a great way of widening the pool of leadership and options for France and beyond and keeping everyone in the squad motivated and on their toes. The only pity of it is that there is still no Ulster player in the squad, perhaps hardly surprising given Ulster performances of late.
Jamie Osborne comes in for Keenan, both of whom has shone for Ireland in recent matches. Ringrose swaps places with Aki with Henshaw moving from 13 to 12 – part of an ongoing policy of rotating our centres, it seems. Prendergast is retained at 10 to add to his body of experience at this level. I had hoped that Caolan Blade might get another run at this level, but Gibson Park and an aging Murray are retained as the 9’s in the squad.
Up front Clarkson gets his first start, which will be a real test, as Wales have good depth at loosehead with Henry Thomas, Nicky Smith, and Gareth Thomas in the squad, and Corey Domachowski, Rhys Carre, and Wyn Jones not even in the squad. However, with Furlong injured so much, it is essential Ireland develop an alternative to Bealham, and Tom O’Toole has been relegated to the ‘A’ squad, perhaps because of his recent indiscretions. Gus McCarthy gets another chance off the bench ahead of Rob Herring who, nearing 35, is possibly in the final stages of his international career. Jack Boyle replaces Cian Healy on the bench and is the only uncapped player in the squad.
A fit again McCarthy comes in for Ryan who drops down to the bench with Baird missing out altogether, even at 6 where O’Mahony is retained and Cian Prendergast is on the bench. The question of who becomes the longer term successor to O’Mahony remains unresolved, with my pick – Cormac Izuchukwu – injured for this match. Conan, as expected, comes in for the injured Doris with Van der Flier retained at 7 despite the addition of Timoney and Hodnett in the extended squad.
Overall, Easterby has taken few risks, but with Clarkson, Gus McCarthy and Jack Boyle in the front row, Wales may sense a weakness and opportunity there. I think Osborne still has a long way to go to displace a world class Keenan as first choice, but everywhere else Ireland have real options to cover for injury, form, fatigue, and aging.
Interim Wales head Coach Matt Sherrat has replaced Rob Howley as assistant coach as well as making eight changes to the side that lost to Italy and bringing Harlequins fly-half Jarrod Evans, Gloucester fly-half Gareth Anscombe and centre Max Llewellyn in from the cold to remedy some of Warren Gatlands’s more idiosyncratic selections.
But that is not to say Gatland was their main problem: The team is short of experience and Sherrat has only four training sessions to get everyone on the same page, so he will have to keep the game plan fairly simple. A new coach bounce is a thing, but you have to have something to bounce off.
Sherrat has gone with two opensides in the back row, so as against England, the Irish line-out should not be under undue pressure. Jack Conan should expect to have a busy day in the line-out. But Wales’s main problem is not motivation or organisation or willingness to put their bodies on the line. Their main problem is that many of them are simply not very good, with few even in the running for a place on the Lions squad. That said, team spirit is a great equalizer and there is no divine right to win a match simply because you have the better players. Ask France!
Ireland, on the other hand are desperate not to seem overconfident or arrogant and pointing to the many times raging favourites were humbled if they didn’t take the match seriously enough. The Off the ball podcast didn’t get that memo when it said Ireland could probably beat Wales with 14 players. That didn’t work out too well in Cardiff in 2021 when Peter O’Mahony was sent off in the 13th. minute, a match we subsequently lost 21-16. Mind you that was our only loss against Wales in the last 8 matches, during which time the average scoreline was 26-12 in our favour – with the average gap widening to 23 points in the last three matches.
Ireland team to play Wales: Jamie Osborne (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), James Lowe (Leinster); Sam Prendergast (Leinster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster, capt), Thomas Clarkson (Leinster); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster).
Replacements: Gus McCarthy (Leinster), Jack Boyle (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht), James Ryan (Leinster), Cian Prendergast (Connacht), Conor Murray (Munster), Jack Crowley (Munster), Bundee Aki (Connacht).
WALES: Blair Murray; Tom Rogers, Max Llewellyn, Ben Thomas, Ellis Mee; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Nicky Smith, Elliot Dee, Will Griff John; Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins; Jac Morgan (capt), Tommy Reffell, Taulupe Faletau.
Replacements: Evan Lloyd, Gareth Thomas, Henry Thomas, Teddy Williams, Aaron Wainwright, Rhodri Williams, Jarrod Evans, Joe Roberts.
England versus Scotland: Saturday at Twickenham (kick-off 4.45pm, RTÉ2, ITV)
What a difference a point makes! A last gasp one point victory against a profligate France ended a seven game losing run against tier one opposition and has transformed their outlook on the match. The bookies have England heavy favourites against Scotland despite only winning against Scotland once in the past 7 matches and losing the last four.
If England aren’t quite as good as their victory over France might indicate, Scotland aren’t as poor as their heavy defeat against Ireland might lead one to believe. They always seem to be dire against Ireland and a much better team against England. Scotland will be aiming to win five Calcutta Cups in a row and make just three changes with Kyle Rowe replacing the concussed Darcy Graham, Pierre Schoeman switching with Rory Sutherland at loosehead, and Jamie Ritchie, switching with Matt Fagerson who moves to the bench. Finn Russell has recovered from his head knock in the Ireland match to take his place and co-captains the side.
England make one change to the team which defeated France 26-25 with Ollie Chessum coming into the starting line-up with George Martin going to the bench mainly to strengthen their line-out options. So all in all, there are virtually no changes to the match day XXIII’s on either side
ENGLAND: Marcus Smith; Tommy Freeman, Ollie Lawrence, Henry Slad, Ollie Sleightholme; Fin Smith, Alex Mitchell; Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan-Dickie, Will Stuart; Maro Itoje (capt), Ollie Chessum; Tom Curry, Ben Earl, Tom Willis.
Replacements: Jamie George, Fin Baxter, Joe Heyes, George Martin, Chandler Cunningham-South, Ben Curry, Harry Randall, Elliot Daly.
Scotland: 15. Blair Kinghorn – Toulouse (57); 14. Kyle Rowe – Glasgow Warriors (10), 13. Huw Jones – Glasgow Warriors (55), 12. Tom Jordan – Glasgow Warriors (5), 11. Duhan van der Merwe – Edinburgh Rugby (46); 10. Finn Russell – Co-Captain – Bath Rugby (84), 9. Ben White – Toulon (26); 1. Pierre Schoeman – Edinburgh Rugby (39), 2. Dave Cherry – Edinburgh Rugby (13), 3. Zander Fagerson – Glasgow Warriors (72); 4. Jonny Gray –Bordeaux Bègles (79), 5. Grant Gilchrist – Edinburgh Rugby (77); 6. Jamie Ritchie – Edinburgh Rugby (56), 7. Rory Darge – Co-Captain – Glasgow Warriors (27), 8. Jack Dempsey – Glasgow Warriors (24)
Replacements 16. Ewan Ashman – Edinburgh Rugby (24), 17. Rory Sutherland – Glasgow Warriors (39), 18. Will Hurd – Leicester Tigers (6), 19. Sam Skinner – Edinburgh Rugby, (36), 20. Gregor Brown – Glasgow Warriors (6), 21. Matt Fagerson – Glasgow Warriors (52), 22. Jamie Dobie – Glasgow Warriors (10), 23. Stafford McDowall – Glasgow Warriors (10).
Italy versus France
This match should be a shoe in for France until you consider what happened last year in France, where Italy coulda shoulda woulda won the match had the laws of the game been properly applied. The match was 13-13 when Garbisi hit the post with a penalty in the 82nd. Minute with a rushed kick because the shot clock was running out and the ball had fallen over on the tee. The problem was there was a French coach/water boy close to the action on the pitch when the kick was taken, and one of the French players had illegally advanced into his eyeline. Referee Christophe Ridley should have ordered the kick re-taken. Perhaps they will get the breaks this time around.
France have probably the deepest squad in the competition but tend to underperform when they don’t take the opposition entirely seriously. They have been warned against Italy and I doubt the same will happen this year, but I suspect they will have one eye on next week’s match against Ireland. However French Coach Fabien Galthié is running out of excuses and needs to deliver a Six Nations title sometime soon.
Ireland ‘A’ squad to face England at Ashton Gate, Sunday 1.00pm, streamed free on RugbyPassTV.
Forwards: Jack Aungier (Clontarf FC/Connacht), Diarmuid Barron (Garryowen/Munster), James Culhane (UCD RFC/Leinster), Max Deegan (Lansdowne/Leinster, capt), Brian Gleeson (Garryowen FC/Munster), Oli Jager (Munster), Sean Jansen (Connacht), Alex Kendellen (UCC RFC/Munster), Paddy McCarthy (Dublin University FC/Leinster), Darragh Murray (Buccaneers RFC/Connacht), Evan O’Connell (UL Bohemian RFC/Munster), Conor O’Tighearnaigh (UCD RFC/Leinster), Tom O’Toole (Ballynahinch/Ulster), Stephen Smyth (Old Wesley RFC/Leinster), Alex Soroka (Clontarf FC/Leinster), Fineen Wycherley (Young Munster/Munster).
Backs: Shayne Bolton (Connacht), Harry Byrne (UCD/Leinster), Hugh Cooney (Clontarf/Leinster), Shane Daly (Cork Constitution/Munster), Cathal Forde (Corinthians/Connacht), Hugh Gavin (Galwegians RFC/Connacht), Fintan Gunne (Terenure College RFC/Leinster), Ben Murphy (Clontarf/Connacht), Ben O’Connor (UCC RFC/Munster), Tommy O’Brien (UCD RFC/Leinster), Andrew Osborne (Naas RFC/Leinster), Jude Postlethwaite (City of Armagh RFC/Ulster), Zac Ward (Ballynahinch RFC/Ulster).
Management: Mike Prendergast (head coach/attack coach), Jimmy Duffy (forwards), Sean O’Brien (defence), Mark Sexton (backs/assistant attack coach), Colm Tucker (scrum/breakdown).
With 40 players in an enlarged senior squad, this is more like a third or fourth choice side, containing seven academy players, and no more than URC standard at best. I hope I am wrong, but I expect England, with their greater strength in depth, to win this one by a margin.
Paddy McCarthy is the only loosehead selected, so will Tom O’Toole cover there? There are only four props and two hookers – so will some members of the senior squad step down if there is an injury prior to the match? 6 backrows seems excessive in that context. Equally, there are only two 9s and one specialist 10, although Forde could cover there. Is Ross Byrne not selected because he is moving to England (see below)? 5 wingers also seems unbalanced, although Daly can cover full back as well.
Overall it looks an unbalanced squad, unless some senior squad players are released prior to the Wales match. This makes sense, as 17 senior squad players won’t see game time in Cardiff, and the ‘A’ match is a day later. That makes it difficult for Prendergast to get everyone on the same page though!
—oo0oo—
In other news, Ross Byrne (29) has signed a three-year contract with Gloucester thus ending a 10-season career with Leinster having joined his hometown provincial academy from the St Michael’s, during which time he has played 177 times and accumulated 1,156 points. This makes him Leinster’s third highest points scorer of all time behind Johnny Sexton and Felipe Contepomi. He also has 22 caps for Ireland and was Jonny Sexton’s deputy for quite a long time.
He has dropped behind Prendergast and Frawley in the pecking order at Leinster who also have good talent coming through in their academy in the shape of Charlie Tector and Casper Gabriel. However, with Harry Byrne currently on loan Bristol Bears and checking out his value abroad, Leinster could find themselves short at 10 when both Prendergast and Frawley are away with the Ireland squad. It’s not as if there is a surfeit of talent at 10 throughout the provinces, so it’s a pity both Byrne Brothers may no longer be plying their trade in Ireland.