
SportsLine’s model simulated the 2025 Zurich Classic 10,000 times and revealed its PGA Tour longshots
SportsLine’s model simulated the 2025 Zurich Classic 10,000 times and revealed its PGA Tour longshots
The Zurich Classic is unlike any other event on the PGA Tour as golfers have the chance to play with a partner in a best ball and alternate shot format. The 2025 Zurich Classic includes some super teams, like the favorites Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry at +360 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. The defending champions are followed by Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama (12-1) in the latest 2025 Zurich Classic odds, along with some surprising pairings who could be ready to shock the world and provide a huge payday for sports bettors. McIlroy, competing for the first time since winning his first Masters, will generate plenty of 2025 Zurich Classic bets, but who is a team for longshot bettors to target for the Zurich Classic 2025?
Brothers Matt Fitzpatrick and Alex Fitzpatrick will team up for the third time this weekend and are 45-1 longshots to win the 2025 Zurich Classic, which tees off from TPC Louisiana on Thursday, April 24. Matt Fitzpatrick, a two-time PGA Tour winner, is ranked No. 79 in the world, while Alex, who is four years younger, is outside the top 100 and has only played seven career PGA Tour events. A brother tandem winning would make for an incredible storyline, but are they a longshot worth including in 2025 Zurich Classic bets?
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament. This same model has also nailed a whopping 14 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters – its fourth Masters in a row – and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
Now that the 2025 Zurich Classic field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and revealed its longshot betting picks:
Brice Garnett / Sepp Straka (33-1 at FanDuel)
Straka is one of only five golfers in the Zurich Classic field ranked in the top 20 in the world. Straka, ranked No. 16, is a three-time PGA Tour winner, including winning the 2025 American Express in January. The 31-year-old missed the cut in a loaded Masters field, but he’s made the cut in 10 of 11 non-major events this season and has finished 11th or better in four tournaments. Straka finished T13 at last week’s RBC Heritage, closing the tournament with back-to-back rounds of 67.
Garnett, a two-time PGA Tour winner, played well with Straka last year as the two finished T-11 at the Zurich Classic. Straka is certainly the more reliable golfer of the duo, but Garnett ranks in the top 35 on the PGA Tour in scrambling and scrambling from the rough while ranking 19th in sand save percentage. Scrambling has not been Straka’s strong suit, as he ranks 100th on the PGA Tour in that statistic, yet is third on the PGA Tour in scoring average. The two skill sets could complement each other for a longshot worth targeting this weekend. Garnett / Straka are priced at 33-1 on FanDuel.
Alejandro Tosti / Joe Highsmith (40-1)
The two have combined to compete in fewer than 100 PGA Tour events, but Highsmith did claim his first victory this year by winning the Cognizant Classic. Two weeks after his victory, Highsmith finished T-20 at the Players Championship. It’s been a hot-and-cold season for Highsmith with four results inside the top 22 while missing six cuts in 12 events. When Highsmith is on, he can go on a run and he’s paired with a golfer playing well as of late.
Tosti has never won a PGA Tour event, but he nearly changed that last weekend in a comeback effort. The 28-year-old shot a 4-under-par 68 in the final round of the Corales Puntacana Championship to finish T-2. Tosti finished T-5 at the Houston Open on March 30 and T-12 at the Valero Texas Open on April 6. He’s fifth on the PGA Tour in driving distance, and Highsmith ranks 31st in putting average compared to Tosti’s 80th, so what may seem to be an unlikely pairing may just be a perfect one for a longshot victory.
Joseph Bramlett / Alex Smalley (45-1)
The two have the experience advantage over some of the younger longshot pairings in the 2025 Zurich Classic field, but even though they both have played in more than 100 PGA Tour events, neither has a victory. Bramlett finished third at the Puerto Rico Open in March, and Smalley has a pair of runner-up results over his career.
Smalley, 28, has struggled lately with three missed cuts and finishing outside the top 60 last week heading into the Zurich Classic 2025, but he started the season like a golfer set to capture that first career victory. He finished in the top 20 in five of his first seven tournaments, so if Smalley can make some slight adjustments to return to that form, he can be a sneaky star in a weaker 2025 Zurich Classic field. He is 10th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained and second on Par 4s. Smalley is second in total driving and 12th in scrambling. At 45-1 odds, there could be value on these two shocking the PGA Tour this weekend.
More Zurich Classic 2025 picks
You’ve seen the latest longshots from the model. Now, see the Zurich Classic leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for the teams of Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Kurt Kitayama and Collin Morikawa, Taylor Moore and Wyndham Clark, and more. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 14 golf majors, including the last four Masters and three majors in 2024.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your PGA Tour picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Eric Cohen’s best bets for a $1 million parlay, all from an expert who correctly predicted the pre-tournament outright winner in seven events over the last two seasons.
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