Joyce, after flirtation with One Nation, set to be dumped if Dutton wins​on February 17, 2025 at 4:50 am

Nationals leader David Littleproud plans to deny his chief rival Barnaby Joyce a ministry if the opposition wins power after the former party leader was filmed uttering obscenities while sprawled on a Canberra footpath late at night one year ago.

Joyce, one of the country’s best-known but most divisive politicians, considered joining One Nation in the aftermath of that incident in February 2024 through a series of discussions that have gone unreported. But he remained in parliament as the Nationals’ veteran’s affairs spokesman.

Senior Coalition sources familiar with thinking at the top of the National Party but forbidden from publicly discussing party machinations said Joyce, a two-time former Nationals leader, internal rival of Littleproud and outspoken voice against renewables, was expected to be dropped from cabinet if Dutton won office. As party leader, Littleproud decides on Cabinet positions for Nationals.

There is growing discussion in the opposition about how to divide spoils of victory even though polls show the Coalition struggling to hit the important 40 per cent primary vote mark that would put it in position to win the approximately 20 seats needed to form government.

Liberal sources said Dutton had not given frontbenchers guarantees on retaining ministry positions or their portfolios, keeping them on their toes ahead of an April or May election.

When Dutton announced a portfolio reshuffle in January, he did not guarantee shadow cabinet positions would automatically turn into ministries if the opposition won government. At the same time, Littleproud has tightened his grip on the junior Coalition party, aided by the retirement of two Joyce backers, MPs Keith Pitt and David Gillespie. Littleproud’s leadership was nearly challenged midway through this term.

After an embarrassing episode in which he was filmed on a footpath at about 11.30pm after attending functions in Parliament, Joyce gave up alcohol and lost 15 kilograms. Some of his associates suggested he retire after the incident and Joyce held lengthy talks with Pauline Hanson’s party about joining One Nation that ultimately went nowhere.

Joyce declined to comment on whether he would remain in cabinet but told this masthead: “I am not joining One Nation. Nor [any] other party.” Littleproud declined to comment.