Here’s what you need to know for every wild-card game. Which teams will win, who are the X factors, and which storylines matter most?
Here’s what you need to know for every wild-card game. Which teams will win, who are the X factors, and which storylines matter most?
The wild-card playoff round for the 2024 NFL season has several great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to all six games, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup X factor to watch, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. The ESPN Research team also provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Finally, three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.
Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the wild-card slate:
Jump to a matchup:
DEN-BUF | GB-PHI
WSH-TB | MIN-LAR
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: BUF -8 (47.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos, who ended an eight-year playoff drought, get another crack at one of the AFC’s top quarterbacks. The Broncos didn’t beat Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes (he didn’t start last week’s game), Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert this season. Now, they get Josh Allen, who has as many rushing touchdowns himself (12) as the Broncos do as a team. The Broncos have to limit Allen from what they call “the second act” plays — the completions and runs after his initial reads are taken away. — Jeff Legwold
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills have thrived in the wild-card round, going 4-1 with Allen starting. The big question for this team going into the playoffs, however, is whether the defense can get off the field. The Bills’ defense is the fourth worst in third-down conversion percentage allowed (43.8%), and taking down the quarterback has been an issue (39 sacks, tied for 18th). On the other side, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has avoided sacks (24, tied for third fewest). “[Nix] seems extremely poised for a young quarterback, and I’ve been very impressed with his mobility, his ability to extend plays,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills have turned over the ball only eight times in the regular season, which is tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest since turnovers were first tracked in 1933. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Allen will convert at least five first downs or score a touchdown with his legs. Cornerback Pat Surtain II might be able to shut down a receiver on most plays, but Allen has plenty of other ways to hurt a defense. I expect him to scramble a lot Sunday despite the Broncos allowing the third-least rushing yards per game (96.4). — Walder
Matchup X factor: Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton. The Broncos can create open voids for Sutton to run the deep in-breaking concepts against a Bills defense that played zone coverage on more than 68% of opponent dropbacks. Sutton had 32 receptions of 15 or more yards this season, and the Broncos will need those types of plays to upset the Bills. — Bowen
Betting nugget: Over the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in road playoff games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Bill Vinovich’s regular-season crews are historically one of the stingiest in the NFL, and 2024 was no exception. His crew averaged a league-low 12.9 flags per game. That’s good news for both teams. The Bills (18th) and Broncos (21st) ranked in the upper half of the NFL in total flags this season. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Bills 28, Broncos 21
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 28, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 68.1% (by an average of 7.1 points)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -4.5 (45.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: The Packers finished with their highest defensive ranking (fifth) since their Super Bowl-winning season of 2010, but they’ve had trouble with Eagles running back Saquon Barkley before. Including the 2024 season opener, Barkley has three straight games against the Packers with at least 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown — tied for the longest streak by any player against Green Bay. — Rob Demovsky
Eagles storyline to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts continues to progress through concussion protocol and is expected to play barring a setback. The question then becomes whether the passing offense can get into a rhythm early with Hurts playing in his first game since Dec. 22. Slow starts were a theme for the Eagles this season, particularly early on, as they failed to score in the first quarter 10 times. Early production has improved of late, but their progress will be tested against a team that has allowed just 19.9 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the NFL. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Packers scored 30-plus points in five of their seven final games, including five straight contests in Weeks 12 through 16. That’s the second-longest streak in franchise history after a seven-game streak in 1963. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter will bat a pass, and it will be intercepted. Carter recorded six batted passes this season, second most in the NFL, and he’ll be facing only an average pass-blocking guard in Sean Rhyan. Expect him to get a hand on one of Jordan Love‘s throws Sunday. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper has the second-level range to track the ball carrier on the edges, and he can patrol the intermediate windows in coverage. If the Packers want to get a win in Philly this weekend, he will need to play an impact role to limit Barkley and clog the middle of the field in the pass game. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games. They have covered in three straight home games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s regular-season crew threw the third-fewest flags per game (13.4). But Allen called 10 penalties for roughing the passer, the second most in the league. That’s good news for the protection of Hurts and Love, who were the beneficiaries of a combined three penalties for roughing the passer in the regular season. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 34, Packers 28
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Packers 21
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Packers 21
FPI prediction: PHI, 51.2% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: TB -3 (50.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington’s defense has improved since facing Tampa Bay in the season opener. After three games, the Commanders ranked 29th in points allowed per game (29.3). But from Weeks 4 through 18, Washington ranked 12th in scoring (21.6 points per game) and fourth in total yards (316.1). The Bucs will present a challenge because of their improved run game with rookie Bucky Irving; they rank second in the NFL over the past seven weeks in rushing yards per game (183.3). Washington’s defense ranks 30th against the run, allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game. — John Keim
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs have seen quarterback Jayden Daniels take off since their Week 1 victory, when he rushed for two touchdowns. Still, they feel they’re more equipped to stop Daniels this go-around. “Early in the season, we were falling short a little bit on containment and not being able to plaster as quarterbacks scramble,” cornerback Zyon McCollum said. “From the D-line down to the DBs, we’ve done a really good job at focusing in and homing in on that type of quarterback movement.” In Weeks 1 through 9, they were giving up 5.0 yards per rush to opposing QBs (22nd in the league). That number has dropped to 3.2 (third best). — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Since the wild card was introduced in 1978, this matchup will mark the fourth instance of two teams meeting in the wild-card round after averaging 28-plus points per game in the regular season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Daniels will rush for 70 or more yards. Coach Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers love to blitz, bringing extra heat 36% of the time. That gives them obvious advantages, but no quarterback scrambles at a higher rate against the blitz than Daniels. His average yardage on scrambles increases from 7.2 on regular plays to 10.7 against the blitz. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. He has seen a bump in target volume and more touchdown production down the stretch. McMillan has at least one touchdown reception in each of his past five games, and he brings a vertical stretch element to this offense. Working opposite Mike Evans, McMillan can win his matchups against Washington’s other options in the secondary. — Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Buccaneers
Betting nugget: Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total. Overs are 12-5 in Buccaneers games this season, including 11-3 in their past 14. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Craig Wrolstad’s regular-season crew threw the second-most flags per game in the NFL (18). But he called only four for roughing the passer, which is good news for both teams in this game. They each committed six roughing the passer fouls, tied for third most in the NFL. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 33, Buccaneers 30
Moody’s pick: Commanders 34, Buccaneers 29
Walder’s pick: Commanders 31, Buccaneers 26
FPI prediction: TB, 58.3% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Monday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: MIN -2.5 (47.5 O/U)
Location change: The NFL has moved this game to Arizona, it announced Thursday night, saying the decision was made in the “interest of public safety” as wildfires continue to ravage Southern California. The game was originally scheduled to take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. It now will be played at Glendale’s State Farm Stadium, home of the Arizona Cardinals, at the same time Monday.
Vikings storyline to watch: The teams’ Week 8 matchup turned in part on the Rams’ unexpected activation of receiver Puka Nacua from injured reserve. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores admitted recently that the Vikings were surprised by Nacua’s participation, which caused “a little bit of scrambling.” The Rams targeted Nacua three times on their opening drive, and he finished with seven catches for 106 yards as the Rams scored what at the time was a season-high 30 points. “They are a very different team with Puka out there,” Flores said. “We know he’s going to be out there this time, and I’ll do a better job of making sure our guys are prepared.” — Kevin Seifert
Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 87.7 Total QBR against the Vikings in Week 8, which was the highest of any starting quarterback against Minnesota this season, according to ESPN Research. He was pressured on 8.8% of dropbacks in that game, the lowest mark for the Vikings’ defense all season. Now, he enters the playoffs averaging the most passing yards per game all time in the postseason (307.9). — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Vikings’ Sam Darnold is seeking to become the sixth starting quarterback since 1966 to win his first career postseason start while playing for his fourth team or later. Of the previous five, three went on to reach the Super Bowl that season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Coach Sean McVay will attempt a field goal when he clearly should not, at least according to the ESPN Analytics model. This is expected to be one of the closest games on the wild-card slate, and the decision to kick will cost the Rams dearly in a game they lose by three or fewer points. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Rams defensive tackle Braden Fiske. The rookie has the pass-rush juice to impact the pocket against Minnesota. He had 8.5 sacks and 32 pressures in the regular season. And he has the physical traits to match up well with a Vikings offensive line that struggled against power on the interior. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as favorites. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: The Rams were flagged the fewest times this season of any playoff team, and their average of 6.2 per game ranked fifth in the NFL. So they’ll welcome referee John Hussey’s crew, which averaged the NFL’s second-fewest flags per game (13.4), especially because the Vikings drew the most flags (8.3 per game) in the league. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Rams 28, Vikings 26
Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Vikings 26
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Rams 23
FPI prediction: MIN, 53.9% (by an average of 1.2 points)
Saturday’s games
The Texans won 32-12.
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: LAC -3 (42.5 O/U)
Chargers storyline to watch: Quarterback Justin Herbert has three interceptions this season, the fewest in the NFL, while the Texans’ defense has the second-most interceptions (19). It will be the third playoff game since 2000 between an offense with the fewest interceptions and a defense with the most or second-most interceptions. Can Houston force Herbert into mistakes and turnovers? — Kris Rhim
Texans storyline to watch: Both defenses are among the best in the league at creating havoc for quarterbacks. The Texans allow the league’s lowest completion percentage (58.8%), and the Chargers sit at 65% (11th lowest). On the flip side, C.J. Stroud and Herbert are susceptible to being taken down due to their protection, as both quarterbacks rank top four in unblocked pressures. The winner of this game will be whichever team’s defense can consistently generate pressure with occasional free rushers. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: With a win Saturday, the Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh would become the second head coach in NFL history to win a playoff game in his first season with two different teams. Pete Carroll did it with the 2010 Seahawks and 1997 Patriots. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Texans will fail to score a touchdown. Since Week 9 (their first game after losing wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL), the Texans ranked 27th in offensive EPA per play. They lost receiver Tank Dell late in the season to a knee injury, too. Now, against the No. 1 scoring defense, I think they’ll struggle. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. He led all defensive backs with 5.5 sacks, and he added 15 pressures. He’s a natural disruptor with the physical tools to win versus running backs in protection. Plus, the Chargers can blitz him on early downs to impact the Texans’ zone run game with Joe Mixon. — Bowen
Betting nugget: Eleven of the Texans’ 17 games this season went under the total, which is tied with the Giants for the highest under rate in the NFL. Unders were 7-1 in Houston home contests in 2024. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Land Clark’s regular-season crew threw the fifth-fewest flags in the NFL (13.8 per game) and was particularly stingy when it came to defensive holding (five, fewest in the league). The Chargers will be happy to hear that after getting flagged more times for defensive holding (10) than all but one team in the league. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Texans 20
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Texans 23
Walder’s pick: Chargers 20, Texans 9
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.8% (by an average of 0.9 points)
The Ravens won 28-14.
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: BAL -9.5 (43.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: With his offense averaging 14 points and 258.8 yards per game in a four-game losing streak, Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith said this is a leave-no-stone-unturned type of game. That could mean mixing things up and using more of quarterback Justin Fields, who hasn’t taken a snap since an abdominal injury in Week 15 against Philadelphia. Fields said he’s healthy and ready to do whatever is asked of him. The Steelers’ offense needs the most help on first down, where it ranks at or near the bottom of the league in yards (4.5, last), success rate (37%, 31st) and QBR (40, 29th). — Brooke Pryor
Ravens storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is looking to overcome his playoff struggles against a Steelers defense that has been faltering. Jackson is 2-4 in the postseason, recording six interceptions and three lost fumbles. He has had a history of turning the ball over versus Pittsburgh specifically, but the Steelers’ defense has faded through its current four-game losing streak, allowing 258.5 passing yards (tied for the fourth most in the league during that span). — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Steelers running back Najee Harris has averaged 4.0 yards per rush this season, which is 35th out of 44 qualified players. His minus-0.01 yards per rush gained over expectation ranks 31st in the NFL, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will catch six or more passes, matching or surpassing a season high. After his slow usage to start the season, Andrews has run a route on a higher percentage of Ravens pass plays. His advanced metrics are also still strong. Andrews has an 80 open score this season, narrowly beating out George Kittle for the highest among tight ends (via ESPN’s receiver scores). — Walder
Matchup X factor: Ravens outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy. The Ravens will scheme matchups for Van Noy off twists and stunts to create pocket disruption. He had 12.5 sacks and 45 pressures on the season, and he’s an easy fit for the Ravens’ multiple fronts due to his ability to influence and set up protection. — Bowen
Betting nugget: Six of the past seven Steelers road games have gone over the total. Five of the Ravens’ past six home games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Alex Kemp’s regular-season crew threw 59 flags for offensive holding, tied for the most in the NFL. That’s an especially notable number for the Ravens, who were flagged for the third-most offensive holding penalties in the regular season (29). The Steelers received 18 such penalties, tied for 18th in the NFL. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 24
Moody’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers, 19
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 72.2% (by an average of 9.0 points)
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