Ontario election 2025: Key ridings to watch in the GTA

Several ridings across the GTA represent important seats for all four main political parties. The Progressive Conservatives are expected to keep their majority in the provincial legislature based on the latest polls, but who becomes the official opposition is still up for grabs.

Here are some of the key races to watch.

This article will be updated as the results are released.

Beaches-East York

The east end Toronto riding has flipped between Liberals and NDP for the last four elections, with the Liberals capturing the seat last election with former Toronto city councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon.

McMahon is running again as the incumbent against NDP candidate Kate Dupuis, who finished a close second behind McMahon in 2022. Can she capture the seat in this election?

Brampton Centre

PC candidate Charmaine Williams is hoping to be elected for her second straight term in Brampton Centre after winning the riding handily in 2022, but she will face a tough candidate. Martin Medeiros, a well-known regional councilor, is running for the Liberals.

Eglinton-Lawrence

Another riding that has been flipped repeatedly, but this time between the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives. The PC’s have won in Eglinton-Lawrence for the last two elections, and incumbent MPP Robin Martin decided not to run for reelection.

Martin beat the Liberal candidate in 2022 by just over 600 votes. Executive Director of the PC Ontario Fund Michelle Cooper is running for the Conservatives while Vince Gasparro, former assistant to John Tory and Paul Martin, is the Liberal candidate.

In an interesting twist, NDP candidate Natasha Doyle-Merrick stepped down to avoid vote splitting. Will her withdrawal give Gasparro the edge to capture the seat in 2025?

Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Etobicoke-Lakeshore has flipped between Liberals and Conservatives for the last 30 years but has been held by the PCs since 2018, when the Liberals lost party status.

However, it was a tight race between the incumbent, Christine Hogarth, in 2022 and the Liberal candidate Lee Fairclough, with just over 800 votes separating them.

Fairclough is taking another swing at Hogarth in the 2025 election. Will this be the year the Liberals get the edge?

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Liberal leader and former Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie will be running for a seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville, a riding won by the PCs in 2022.

Khaleed Rasheed won the seat but was booted out of the PC caucus for his ties to the Greenbelt scandal and will not be running again. The PCs have chosen Silvia Gualtieri to replace him. She is a former city councillor in Mississauga and the mother-in-law of Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown, who is the former PC leader.

Parkdale-High Park

An NDP stronghold will be without an incumbent in the 2025 election in Parkdale-High Park. The riding has been held by the NDP since 2006, with Bhutila Karpoche as the MPP since 2018. She announced in September that she would not run again so she could run federally for the NDP.

Will the NDP be able to hold onto the seat with Alexa Gilmour, a United Church minister and local community organizer? She’ll be facing former NewsTalk 1010 anchor Justine Teplycky for the PCs and Nadia Guerrera for the Liberals, who previously ran for the Liberals in York-South Weston.

Scarborough-Agincourt:

Could a historically Liberal riding turn red once again after eight years under PC leadership? In Scarborough Agincourt, Aris Babikian is running for his third term as MPP but is facing off against former deputy Toronto Police Chief Peter Yeun, the Liberal candidate.

Toronto-St. Paul’s

The Liberals are hoping to unseat the NDP using a well-known name in a riding that recently flipped to the Conservatives at a federal level.

NDP incumbent Jill Andrews will be facing a challenge against former broadcaster Stephanie Smyth, who is running for the Liberals. The PCs can’t be ruled out after the Liberal stronghold flipped to the Conservatives in a by-election last summer.

York South-Weston

York South-Weston is up for grabs after the incumbent, Doug Ford’s nephew Michael Ford, announced he would not be running again. Faisal Hassan, the NDP candidate, was the MPP before being defeated by Ford in 2022 and will be running again in an attempt to recapture the riding.

Mohamed Firin, who was appointed to be a community opportunities advocate in the area in 2024, will be running for the PCs, while the Liberal candidate is community advocate Daniel Di Giorgio.

Ridings to watch outside the GTA

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte

The PC candidate, Doug Downey, has held the seat since 2018 but was almost unseated in the 2022 election when the Liberals ran with former Barrie Mayor Jeff Lehman. Downey won by less than 300 votes.

This time, the Liberal candidate is a doctor and former Ontario Medical Association (OMA) president, Rose Zacharias, and with the Liberals trying to make health care the ballot question, they hope their star candidate will put them over the edge in this riding.

Hamilton Centre

A long-held NDP riding could be up for grabs after incumbent Sarah Jama was ousted from the party. Jama won the seat in a 2023 by-election when former NDP leader Andrea Horwath resigned, but she was kicked out of the party less than a year later after a series of events that began with a statement on the Israel-Hamas war that failed to mention the attack on Israeli civilians.

Jama is running again as an independent and faces off against Robin Lennox, a family health physician and public health advocate.

Windsor West

The PCs are hoping to build their support in Windsor after stealing the other two Windsor-area ridings from the NDP in the 2022 election. PC Leader Doug Ford launched his campaign in this riding in hopes of shoring up support.

Incumbent Lisa Gretzky has held the seat for the NDP since 2014, but her margin of victory narrowed from 2018 to 2022, and the candidate the Liberals nominated for this riding withdrew at the last minute.

With files from The Canadian Press

Several ridings across the GTA represent important seats for all four main political parties. The Progressive Conservatives are expected to keep their majority in the provincial legislature based on the latest polls, but who becomes the official opposition is still up for grabs. Here are some of the key races to watch. This article will   

Several ridings across the GTA represent important seats for all four main political parties. The Progressive Conservatives are expected to keep their majority in the provincial legislature based on the latest polls, but who becomes the official opposition is still up for grabs.

Here are some of the key races to watch.

This article will be updated as the results are released.

The east end Toronto riding has flipped between Liberals and NDP for the last four elections, with the Liberals capturing the seat last election with former Toronto city councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon.

McMahon is running again as the incumbent against NDP candidate Kate Dupuis, who finished a close second behind McMahon in 2022. Can she capture the seat in this election?

PC candidate Charmaine Williams is hoping to be elected for her second straight term in Brampton Centre after winning the riding handily in 2022, but she will face a tough candidate. Martin Medeiros, a well-known regional councilor, is running for the Liberals.

Another riding that has been flipped repeatedly, but this time between the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives. The PC’s have won in Eglinton-Lawrence for the last two elections, and incumbent MPP Robin Martin decided not to run for reelection.

Martin beat the Liberal candidate in 2022 by just over 600 votes. Executive Director of the PC Ontario Fund Michelle Cooper is running for the Conservatives while Vince Gasparro, former assistant to John Tory and Paul Martin, is the Liberal candidate.

In an interesting twist, NDP candidate Natasha Doyle-Merrick stepped down to avoid vote splitting. Will her withdrawal give Gasparro the edge to capture the seat in 2025?

Etobicoke-Lakeshore has flipped between Liberals and Conservatives for the last 30 years but has been held by the PCs since 2018, when the Liberals lost party status.

However, it was a tight race between the incumbent, Christine Hogarth, in 2022 and the Liberal candidate Lee Fairclough, with just over 800 votes separating them.

Fairclough is taking another swing at Hogarth in the 2025 election. Will this be the year the Liberals get the edge?

Liberal leader and former Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie will be running for a seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville, a riding won by the PCs in 2022.

Khaleed Rasheed won the seat but was booted out of the PC caucus for his ties to the Greenbelt scandal and will not be running again. The PCs have chosen Silvia Gualtieri to replace him. She is a former city councillor in Mississauga and the mother-in-law of Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown, who is the former PC leader.

An NDP stronghold will be without an incumbent in the 2025 election in Parkdale-High Park. The riding has been held by the NDP since 2006, with Bhutila Karpoche as the MPP since 2018. She announced in September that she would not run again so she could run federally for the NDP.

Will the NDP be able to hold onto the seat with Alexa Gilmour, a United Church minister and local community organizer? She’ll be facing former NewsTalk 1010 anchor Justine Teplycky for the PCs and Nadia Guerrera for the Liberals, who previously ran for the Liberals in York-South Weston.

Could a historically Liberal riding turn red once again after eight years under PC leadership? In Scarborough Agincourt, Aris Babikian is running for his third term as MPP but is facing off against former deputy Toronto Police Chief Peter Yeun, the Liberal candidate.

The Liberals are hoping to unseat the NDPusing a well-known name in a riding that recently flipped to the Conservatives at a federal level.

NDP incumbent Jill Andrews will be facing a challenge against former broadcaster Stephanie Smyth, who is running for the Liberals. The PCs can’t be ruled out after the Liberal stronghold flipped to the Conservatives in a by-election last summer.

York South-Weston is up for grabs after the incumbent, Doug Ford’s nephew Michael Ford, announced he would not be running again. Faisal Hassan, the NDP candidate, was the MPP before being defeated by Ford in 2022 and will be running again in an attempt to recapture the riding.

Mohamed Firin, who was appointed to be a community opportunities advocate in the area in 2024, will be running for the PCs, while the Liberal candidate is community advocate Daniel Di Giorgio.

The PC candidate, Doug Downey, has held the seat since 2018 but was almost unseated in the 2022 election when the Liberals ran with former Barrie Mayor Jeff Lehman. Downey won by less than 300 votes.

This time, the Liberal candidate is a doctor and former Ontario Medical Association (OMA) president, Rose Zacharias, and with the Liberals trying to make health care the ballot question, they hope their star candidate will put them over the edge in this riding.

A long-held NDP riding could be up for grabs after incumbent Sarah Jama was ousted from the party. Jama won the seat in a 2023 by-election when former NDP leader Andrea Horwath resigned, but she was kicked out of the party less than a year later after a series of events that began with a statement on the Israel-Hamas war that failed to mention the attack on Israeli civilians.

Jama is running again as an independent and faces off against Robin Lennox, a family health physician and public health advocate.

The PCs are hoping to build their support in Windsor after stealing the other two Windsor-area ridings from the NDP in the 2022 election. PC Leader Doug Ford launched his campaign in this riding in hopes of shoring up support.

Incumbent Lisa Gretzky has held the seat for the NDP since 2014, but her margin of victory narrowed from 2018 to 2022, and the candidate the Liberals nominated for this riding withdrew at the last minute.

With files from The Canadian Press