Federal election 2025: Expect another close race in Edmonton Centre

Since the 1990s, Edmonton Centre has been one of the most hotly contested ridings in Alberta.

Four years ago, Liberal Randy Boissonnault edged Tory candidate James Cumming by 615 votes, avenging his 2019 defeat to the Conservative. Liberal Anne McLellan won this riding in 1993 by just 12 votes after a recount.

Edmonton Centre could go down to the wire again. Boissonnault has stepped aside, and Eleanor Olszewski, a lawyer who was chair of the Alberta wing of the Liberal party, has been moved from the Strathcona riding to try and keep Edmonton Centre red. She’s up against Tory Sayid Ahmed, a Somali refugee who is now a senior director in the Alberta government, co-ordinating pharmaceutical and supplementary benefits. He ran for the Conservatives in the Edmonton-Decore riding in the 2023 provincial vote. Former Edmonton Public Schools trustee Trisha Estabrooks is carrying the NDP flag.

Article content

Why is Edmonton Centre so hotly contested?

Why does Edmonton Centre so often produce photo finishes? Demographics.

According to Elections Canada, after the boundaries were redrawn in 2022, the riding has 115,160 residents. It takes in Downtown and the inner city, which traditionally lean toward progressive candidates, as does Westmount. But it also takes in wealthy neighbourhoods like Glenora and Crestwood, which historically vote Conservative. It moves west to Mayfield Road and north to 137 Avenue, areas that are also traditionally blue.

Think of the 2021 election as a seven-game playoff series, but each game was a blowout. The series itself was close, but none of the games were. Cumming doubled Boissonnault’s votes in the west, tripled him in the northwest, and swept through the manor homes of Glenora. Boissonnault doubled Cumming in Westmount and Inglewood, and the Tories couldn’t find votes Downtown.

NDP: Trisha Estabrooks

Estabrooks has a pair of red and white striped long johns that she wears door-knocking. They have a certain Cat in the Hat sensibility that can’t be denied. They are a reminder that she’s been campaigning for almost two years.

Article content

Article content

“It’s a huge riding, as many federal ridings are,” she said.

“It has taken a year and a half to make sure we knock on every single door. We’re in the stage of the campaign where we’re going back for a second or third time. It is a really diverse area. We have many, many neighbourhoods where new Canadians coming into our country, their first home is in Edmonton Centre. And, in other parts of the riding, we have born-and-bred Edmontonians, who are proud and who want to build this city.”

Estabrooks sees this as a blue-versus-orange race, with the Liberals bringing up the rear.

“Here in Edmonton Centre, you drive around this riding, and what I see is a race between the Conservatives and New Democrats.”

Liberal: Eleanor Olszewski

That view isn’t shared by the Liberal candidate.

“Regardless of the neighbourhood, we found that some of what we thought was an NDP vote or a Conservative vote — because there are signs on those lawns — we’ve been talking to those residents and found that support is quite soft,” said Olszewski.

Article content

“I’ve campaigned before, and I would say this is the first time, to me, that I’ve seen that much softness on both sides.”

Olszewski no longer lives in the riding, but her family were Glenora residents for years. Her son went to Westminster School. Her law office is located Downtown.

Originally nominated to run in Strathcona, she was asked to move to Edmonton Centre.

“It was a request by the party, and it was a request that I very happily accepted,” she said.

“Based on what I’ve been hearing at the doors, I think that most voters understand the situation that Canada finds itself in. I think they are going to be pragmatic about what the future looks like, not just for Edmonton Centre, but Alberta and the rest of the country. The reception has been quite positive, and I think they see that Mark Carney is a man of gravitas, he’s a thoughtful man, and he’s not just a slogan.”

Conservative: Sayid Ahmed

Ahmed’s campaign acknowledged interview requests. He was at the Conservative Canada First rally Monday in Nisku but did not wish to go on the record there. He refused an invite to the April 16 candidate forum at the Matrix Hotel.

Article content

Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the news you need to know — add EdmontonJournal.com and EdmontonSun.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters.
You can also support our journalism by becoming a digital subscriber. Subscribers gain unlimited access to The Edmonton Journal, Edmonton Sun, National Post, and 13 other Canadian news sites. The Edmonton Journal | The Edmonton Sun

Article content