Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, picks, time, horses, odds: Best bets by expert who called last year’s winner​on April 17, 2025 at 2:05 pm

Bob Baffert will attempt to separate himself from every other elite trainer by becoming the first to win seven times when the 2025 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 3. Baffert, who last won the Kentucky Derby in 2020 with Authentic, has at least one horse guaranteed for the Kentucky Derby 2025, Rodriguez, who won the Wood Memorial to secure his position at Churchill Downs. Rodriguez is 10-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, so is he the horse to cement Baffert’s legacy?

Three 2025 Kentucky Derby horses have shorter odds than Rodriguez, led by Journalism, the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. Sovereignty and Sandman follow at 8-1 in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025, but who should you include in 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby.

For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Sandman, trained by Mark E. Casse, made his racing debut at Churchill Downs, finishing fifth in June 2024. After recording his first victory at Saratoga in the following race, Sandman again finished fifth at Churchill Downs in September and was third at the track in October.

Sandman has finished in the top three in his last four races, which all came at Oaklawn, so he’ll be out of his element from the last five months. His Arkansas Derby victory at Oaklawn came in his first Grade 1 stakes race, so he has limited experience against elite fields like the Kentucky Derby. At 8-1 odds, Menez doesn’t see value in playing Sandman at Churchill Downs. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks

Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures