5 reasons the Edmonton Oilers are going to lose, and 5 why they won’t

After opening the season as an odds-on favourite to win the Stanley Cup, the Edmonton Oilers aren’t going to make it out of the first round of the playoffs.

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At least that’s what the experts are saying.

The National Hockey League surveyed 16 of its own website staffers Thursday and 13 of them picked Los Angeles to win the series. The majority of the TSN and Sportsnet panelists are also calling for the Kings to finally get their revenge after three-straight first-round exits.

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There is certainly evidence to support those opinions. Edmonton lost the season series, they finished below Los Angeles in the standings, they open the series on the road and they’re all banged up and missing key pieces.

It could very well be a short and sour playoff run.

Or maybe not. This could easily go either way, so here are five reasons the Oilers are going to lose … and five more why they might just pull this off.

WHY THEY’LL LOSE

Goaltending

The Kings made a significant upgrade in net in acquiring Darcy Kuemper, who won a Stanley Cup with Colorado in 2022. His .922 save percentage gives the Kings, on paper at least, a decided advantage over Stuart Skinner (.896). You put a goalie of that calibre behind a team that is as tight defensively as the Kings are and it’s a problem. In the last three games against Kuemper and the Kings this year, Edmonton has one goal.

Home Ice

The Kings are a machine in their own building, posting the best home-ice record in the league (31-6-4). Being able to play the first two games at home, with Edmonton not being fully healthy to start the series, could allow Los Angeles to get a jump on them out of the gate while gaining a stronger sense of belief and forcing Edmonton to play the series from behind.

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New and improved

The Kings are bigger, deeper and more experienced than they’ve been in any of the previous series. Players like Quinton Byfield are coming of age, they brought in big Joel Edmundson on defence and Warren Foegele and Andrei Kuzmenko up front. And don’t think that L.A. can’t score with Edmonton — their top seven goals scorers put up 175 goals this year, the exact same number as Edmonton’s top seven goal scorers.

And, while things are close offensively (Edmonton was only nine goals better during the regular season, 259-250) the Kings are better defensively (206 goals against to Edmonton’s 236). When you play the Kings, the margins are razor thin: Los Angeles is 41-0-2 when scoring three goals in a game.

No Ekholm

Mattias Ekholm is arguably the third-most important skater on the Oilers, so not having him leaves a gaping hole in Edmonton’s blue line. He’s a strong, steadying influence on defence, a leader on the penalty kill, second in scoring among Oilers defencemen and makes a big difference in Evan Bouchard’s game. The Oilers are still OK at that position with Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman and Brett Kulak, but it’s not the same as having those four PLUS Ekholm.

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Oilers aren’t the same

Aside from that league-best run during the middle of the season, the Oilers haven’t been in sync this year. Whether it’s fatigue, an emotional hangover, injuries or off-season changes that took away their youth and speed, this isn’t the same Oilers team we’ve watched before. The power play isn’t the lethal force it once was, finishing 12th in the NHL at 23.7 and yes, they’ve had a lot of injuries, but they are still just 14-13-1 since Feb. 5.

WHY THEY’LL WIN

Goalie killers

The Oilers have cracked really good L.A. goalies before (Cam Talbot in 2024, Joonas Korpisalo in 2023 and Jonathan Quick in 2022), all of whom had stellar save percentages in the regular season (.913, .921, .910). They all wilted in the face of Edmonton’s post-season attack. And remember that time Jake Oettinger and the Dallas Stars had the big edge in net, and they outshot Edmonton 34-10 in Game 6, and lost?

Home Ice Advantage

Yes, Los Angeles has it, but it’s not as big a deal as it’s often made out to be. Edmonton has done well in its playoff history starting on the road (3-3 over the last three years, losing to the eventual Stanley Cup champions in each of those series defeats). They’ve been just as good on the road as they’ve been at home this year and, besides, they only have to win in L.A. once. And the flip side of L.A.’s great road record is that they are tied with Montreal for the second worst road record of any playoff team (17-19-5).

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Top-End Skill

The Kings have depth and balance, but they simply do not have an answer for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If those two are at the top of their game, going out there every second shift in the third period, Los Angeles is eventually going to break. In 18 playoff games against the Kings so far, McDavid and Draisaitl combined for a whopping 66 points.

They know how to win

Only one team, the Florida Panthers, has more post-season wins over the last three seasons than Edmonton’s 29. They are an experienced and battle-scarred group that knows how to win. When things are going well, when things are going badly, when they lead in a series or if they have to come from behind, the Oilers have shown they know how to get it done. The Kings, as of yet, are unproven.

Playing possum

Maybe the reason we haven’t seen the real Oilers yet this year is because they’ve been saving it for this moment. Between the injuries and the lack of motivation and resting every little tweak during the stretch drive, we have no idea what’s coming out of the gate on Monday. But we did get a taste of it when they hit the gas and went 23-6-2 in the middle of the season. That team is still there.

E-mail: rtychkowski@postmedia.com

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