Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back White Sox starter against Royals at plus odds​on May 5, 2025 at 2:52 pm

The San Diego Padres seek their sixth consecutive victory when they visit the American League East-leading New York Yankees on Monday for the opener of a three-game series. San Diego, which opened the season with a seven-game winning streak, began its nine-game road trip by outscoring the Pittsburgh Pirates 15-5 during a three-game sweep. The Padres send Nick Pivetta (5-1, 1.78 ERA) to the mound, while New York counters with Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.43) with hopes of avoiding a three-game skid.

Sportsbooks have set Pivetta’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5 (Over -102, Under -130), while Rodon’s is 5.5 (Over -148, Under +113). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Pivetta Over 6.5 and Rodon Over 5.5 as 3.5-star plays on its five-star scale.

Neither ranks as one of the top three pitcher strikeout props for Monday’s 10-game schedule. The model has found one pitcher strikeout prop rated at 5 stars and two others rated at 4 stars. Here they are:

Shane Smith Over 3.5 strikeouts (+115) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

Smith has been a bright spot for the White Sox this season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his first six major-league starts en route to a 2.23 ERA. The 25-year-old rookie right-hander has given up a total of one earned run across 10 innings in his last two turns. Smith also went Over this number in both of those five-frame outings, registering seven strikeouts against the Minnesota Twins and four versus the Milwaukee Brewers last time out.

Griffin Canning Over 4.5 strikeouts (+126) vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

Canning has been a pleasant surprise in his first season with the Mets, going 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in six starts. The 28-year-old righty has surrendered fewer than two runs and gone Over this strikeout number in three straight outings and four of his last five. Canning has fanned five batters over five innings in back-to-back turns after setting a season high with eight strikeouts against the St. Louis Cardinals on Apr. 17. In three career starts versus the Diamondbacks, he has recorded 19 strikeouts across 17 frames.

Ryne Nelson Over 4.5 strikeouts (+128) vs. Mets (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

Nelson will be making his first start of the season following seven relief appearances. The 27-year-old right-hander has averaged more than a strikeout per inning out of the bullpen, registering 20 across 17 frames. Nelson faced the Mets in New York last Tuesday, fanning three batters over four innings. In his previous appearance, five of the seven outs he recorded against the Tampa Bay Rays were strikeouts.