Predicting Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl 2025 winner in our Madden simulation, plus grading every coaching hire​on January 30, 2025 at 6:03 pm

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

The Super Bowl countdown is officially on and that’s because it’s T-minus 10 days until the Big Game in New Orleans. If you’re wondering who’s going to win the Super Bowl, you don’t have to wonder anymore because we simulated the entire game on Madden. We now know who’s going to win and we’re going to reveal that information in Thursday’s newsletter. 

If you need some football to fill your life between now and the Super Bowl, I have some good news: THE PRO BOWL GAMES ARE KICKING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. We’ll be covering that along with handing out some coaching grades, so let’s get to the rundown. 

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

1. Grading the coaching hires: Bears shine, Cowboys get low grade

When the regular season ended, there were a total of seven teams in the market for a new head coach and six of those teams have made a new hire. Since we love handing out grades around here, we’ve decided to grade every coaching hire that’s been made so far. 

Will Brinson was in charge of handing out the grades, so let’s see what he came up with for three of the coaching hires: 

• Bears: Ben Johnson: A- “Johnson has been the top candidate for three straight coaching cycles, has been immensely patient and the Bears still lured him away from a division rival. That’s a big deal.”
• Raiders: Pete Carroll: B+ “This team has been terrible for 20+ years and needs a serious coach to bring some gum-chewing enthusiasm to the sideline. Carroll had a year off, got to think about how he’ll approach things and has a smart, young GM in tow. If they hit on some picks early in the draft and find a quarterback, they could be a real pain in 2025.”
• Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer: D “Maybe I’m dead wrong and Brian Schottenheimer ends up being a great head coach, but the Cowboys’ process was a disaster here. … Jerry Jones just decided to promote his in-house offensive coordinator, a guy with no head coaching experience, and someone who will likely do what the owner/GM wants him to do from an offensive standpoint. Schottenheimer obviously has the bloodlines to succeed, but it’s very fair to question the process here and whether Jerry is capable of running a ‘normal’ search and putting together a serious football team at this point.”

If you want to see Brinson’s grades for all six coaching hires, you’ll have to check out his full story here. He’ll also eventually give a grade to the Saints whenever they decide to hire a new coach. Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore seems to be the front-runner for the job, and if that’s the case, that means the Saints won’t be making a hire until after the Super Bowl. 

2. Super Bowl on Madden: We simulated Chiefs-Eagles and here’s what happened 

The Super Bowl is still 10 days away, but we didn’t want to wait that long to find out who’s going to win, so we had CBSSports.com’s Tyler Sullivan simulate the entire game on Madden. Yes, this means Sullivan got paid to play video games for two hours, and yes, I’m jealous, but the important thing here is that if his simulation turns out to be correct, then we now know who’s going to win the Super Bowl. 

Here’s what happened on Sullivan’s Madden simulation: 

• Chiefs fall behind early. The game started with Patrick Mahomes throwing an interception on Kansas City’s first offensive possession and then the Eagles quickly capitalizing on that by scoring a touchdown. Before the first quarter was over, the Chiefs found themselves trailing 14-0. 
• Chiefs mount furious comeback. After falling behind 14-0, things didn’t get much better for the Chiefs with Philadelphia taking a 28-7 lead into the fourth quarter. However, you can never count out Mahomes, and he proved that in our simulation. The Chiefs mounted a wild comeback during a 21-point fourth quarter with the biggest play being a 74-yard touchdown pass to Hollywood Brown. So how does the game end? 
• Winner and MVP. The Chiefs’ comeback attempt ended up falling just short in a 31-28 loss that ended with the Eagles winning their second Lombardi Trophy. The MVP of the game was Jalen Hurts, who totaled 279 yards and three touchdowns (231 passing yards and two touchdowns through air combined with 48 yards and one score on the ground). 

This is the fifth year Sullivan has done a simulation of the Super Bowl and the sim is 3-1 so far, which would seem to bode well for the Eagles. Last year, the simulation predicted a four-point win by the 49ers, but San Francisco ended up losing, 25-22, in overtime. In that game, the 49ers were leading by three with just 10 seconds left in regulation before Harrison Butker drilled a short field goal to send the game to overtime. 

If you want to know every detail about how this simulation played out, plus watch highlights from the game, then be sure to click here. 

3. Every NFL team’s MVP for the 2024 season

Now that the season is over for 30 of the NFL’s 32 teams, we decided to take a look back at the year that was by going through and naming the MVP for each team in 2024. 

For some teams, this is easy — Lamar Jackson was definitely the Ravens‘ MVP — but for other teams, it’s not so easy.

Here’s a look at five team MVPs that Tyler Sullivan came up with: 

• Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase. “The Bengals superstar wideout finished with the triple crown, leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. There’s really nothing more Cincinnati could’ve asked from Chase, who is now in line to get a monster contract extension this offseason.”
• Eagles: Saquon Barkley. “Were you expecting anyone else? In his first season with the Eagles after signing with the organization in free agency, Barkley put together one of the greatest single seasons by a running back in NFL history.”
• Commanders: Jayden Daniels. “After a 4-13 season in 2023, the franchise found itself finishing the 2024 regular season at 12-5 and playing in the NFC Championship. That was all thanks to their dynamic rookie QB, who has turned the fortunes of the franchise around for the foreseeable future. Daniels is primed to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year after setting rookie records in rushing yards (891) and completion percentage (69%).”
• Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb “Even with Dak Prescott being limited to just eight games this season due to injury, Lamb was still able to help the Cowboys offense produce with Cooper Rush under center. The star pass catcher was named a second-team All-Pro after catching 101 passes for 1,194 yards and six touchdowns.”
• Broncos: Patrick Surtain II. “Surtain continues to rival for the title as the NFL’s top cornerback. The Broncos defender logged his third-straight Pro Bowl season in 2024 and was named a first-team All-Pro for the second time in three seasons. Surtain headlined a Broncos defense that was among the very best in the league in most statistical categories, including the second-fewest yards per play allowed.”

If you want to know who was named MVP for your favorite team, be sure to check out Sullivan’s full list here.

4. One free agent each team should look to sign this offseason

Between now and the start of free agency on March 12, we’re going to be talking a lot about what each team should do in free agency. Jordan Dajani started that process by going through all 32 teams and coming up with one free agent that they should look to sign this offseason.  

Here’s a look at Dajani’s suggestion for five different teams, and we’re going to start off with a move that would certainly make things interesting in New York: 

• Giants: Justin Fields. “The Giants could score a quarterback at No. 3 overall in the draft, but two QB-needy teams in the Titans and Browns are above them in the order. Maybe the Giants could give Fields a chance and then draft Travis Hunter in April.”
• 49ers: Khalil Mack. “The 49ers need to upgrade the defensive line this offseason, and that includes adding a pass rusher opposite of Nick Bosa. Mack isn’t exactly a spring chicken, but the veteran QB terror would certainly help a defensive unit poised for a turnaround with the return of Robert Saleh.”
• Commanders: Tee Higgins. “The Commanders have plenty of work to do on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, but they also can’t run it back with what they have at wide receiver. Jayden Daniels needs someone other than Terry McLaurin to throw the ball to, and Tee Higgins is arguably the top free agent in this entire class.”
• Falcons: Chase Young. “In his one season with the Saints, the former Defensive Rookie of the Year recorded 5.5 sacks and a career-high 21 QB hits. Young registered 47 hurries and 66 pressures, according to PFF, which both ranked inside the top seven among pass rushers. Young is worth a multi-year deal, and shouldn’t come too expensive for the Falcons.”
• Chiefs: Darius Slayton. “The veteran Slayton needs a change of scenery, and what better offense to join than the one led by Patrick Mahomes? Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Darius Slayton would be a solid wide receiving corps.”

If you want to see Dajani’s recommendation for all 32 teams, be sure to click here. 

5. Pro Bowl skills challenge kicks off: Here’s what you need to know

The Pro Bowl is now called the Pro Bowl Games, and it’s being held over two days this year: Jan. 30 and Feb. 2. The action will be kicking off Thursday night with several skill competitions. Here’s what you need to know if you plan on watching:

Time: 7-8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Camping World Stadium/Nicholson Fieldhouse (Orlando)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)

If you do check things out, you’re going to be watching several fascinating competitions. Here’s a quick look at a few of the events that will be happening, along with the description of the event from the NFL. 

• Dodgeball. “A classic game of 7-on-7 dodgeball between conferences played in two matches. The winning team will be awarded six points.” 
• Satisfying catches. “One wide receiver, tight end and defensive back from each conference will compete in a challenge obstacle course, including catches from a jugs machine at three different distances, to test every aspect of catching a football. Each teammate will complete the course back-to-back with the lowest combined time winning the challenge.” 
• Passing the test. “Each of the conference’s three quarterbacks will try to hit targets at various distances around the field worth different point values in 40 seconds. Before the challenge, each quarterback will select a Pro Bowl Games teammate to answer five trivia questions about current Pro Bowl players. For every correct answer, the quarterback gets an additional 10 seconds. The winner of the competition is the team with the quarterback who scores the most points.”
• Relay race. “A simultaneous relay-style event where four players from each conference complete a 40-yard dash before handing a football to the next athlete on their team, continuing until the fourth and final leg crosses the finish line. The conferences will compete in three rounds, with the fastest team winning. Three points will be awarded to the winning team.” 

For a full look at every event that will be airing Thursday night, be sure to check out our full story here. The Pro Bowl games will continue on Sunday with competitions ranging from a tug-of-war to punt perfect to a flag football game between the AFC and NFC. The Sunday action kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on both ABC and ESPN. 

I don’t love the current Pro Bowl format, but I will watch almost anything that involves football, so there’s a 99% chance I will at least check out some of this. 

6. Extra points: Jets hire former NFL head coach for defensive coordinator job

It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

• Jets set to hire Steve Wilks as defensive coordiantor. The Jets are finalizing a deal with Steve Wilks to make him their new defensive coordinator. Wilks’ last DC job came in 2023 with the 49ers during a season where San Francisco made it all the way to the Super Bowl with one of the best defenses in the NFL. Wilks was also the head coach for the Cardinals back in 2018. You can read more about his hiring here. 
• Matthew Stafford planning to play in 2025. In news that shouldn’t come as a surprise, Stafford is planning to return for another season in 2025. The Rams QB had strongly hinted that he would be coming back, but now, the big question is whether he’ll remain in Los Angeles. His future is up in the air, which you can read more about there here. 
• Raiders keeping their defensive coordinator. The Raiders are getting a new head coach, but they won’t be getting a new defensive coordinator. In a somewhat unusual move, Pete Carroll has decided to hold on to Patrick Graham, who was the defensive coordinator prior to Carroll’s arrival in Las Vegas. Graham was hired by the Raiders in 2022 and is now going into his fourth season with the team. You can read more about the Raiders’ decision here. 
• Senior Bowl stock report. The Senior Bowl is happening this week, and we have a contingent of draft guys down in Mobile, Alabama. We took a look at six players who have impressed NFL scouts so far, and you can check out that list here.