Who will win the NFL MVP Award? 13 analysts pick between Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and the field​on February 5, 2025 at 1:49 pm

It’s a shame that voting for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award ended at the conclusion of the regular season, especially after battle we saw between Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Baltimore Ravens passer Lamar Jackson in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. Allen led the Bills to a 27-25 win over the Ravens and moved his team on to the AFC Championship versus the Kansas City Chiefs, where Buffalo’s season ended.

Both Allen and Jackson, in the primes of their careers, put together compelling cases to walk away as the 2024 MVP. After winning the prestigious honor last season, Jackson put together one of the best statistical campaigns of all time and was even better than his previous two MVP seasons. Allen came close to matching Jackson in several statistical categories and orchestrated one of the best years of his career during a transition period for the Bills’ roster. So who has the edge?

We asked 13 analysts — Matt Bowen, Dan Graziano, Kalyn Kahler, Matt Miller, Dan Orlovsky, Jordan Reid, Aaron Schatz, Ben Solak, Mike Tannenbaum, Lindsey Thiry, Seth Walder, Field Yates and myself — to vote on the top players in the MVP race. While it was a two-player race at the end, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley more than earned his way into the mix, as did the career-best play demonstrated by Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow in a season where his team failed to make the playoffs.

Here’s a look at how the final rankings played out. (All odds are via ESPN BET.)

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Walder’s extended top-100 MVP ballot

First place votes: 7
Final odds: -500

2024 stats: 3,731 passing yards, 28 TDs, 6 INTs, 77.3 QBR (531 rushing yards, 12 TDs)

Season in review: The MVP is a regular season award, so what Allen did in the postseason to lead the Bills to the AFC title game won’t factor into voting. But how he put his team in position to get there by locking up the No. 2 seed will.

Allen played some of the best, mistake-free football of his career and had the lowest percentage of plays with a sack, fumble or interception (4.2%) since the AFL-NFL merger (1970). His 40 total touchdowns were the fourth-most in the NFL while he put together a second consecutive season with at least 25 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns. His three games with multiple passing and rushing touchdowns (vs. the Cardinals, Rams and Lions) were the most in an NFL season.

The case for Allen over Jackson: Voter fatigue could be at play given Jackson has won the MVP twice. We’ve seen this happen in the NBA when Charles Barkley won the MVP in 1993 over Michael Jordan (who had just won it the previous two seasons) and recently with Nikola Jokic getting snubbed for Joel Embiid after locking up two-straight MVPs from 2021-22. Additionally, voters may consider Ravens running back Derrick Henry‘s impact (1,921 rushing yards, NFL-best 16 TDs) and argue that Jackson may have competition for being the best player on his own team.

This is an award driven by narratives, and the one in Buffalo is that Allen did more with less after the Bills parted ways with his No. 1 and No. 2 receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, respectively, in the offseason. Buffalo also had only one Pro Bowl selection outside of Allen (left tackle Dion Dawkins) and no All-Pros. The Bills were the first team in NFL history to beat two 15-win teams when they knocked off the Lions and Chiefs in games where Allen racked up 747 total yards, six touchdowns and one interception while not being sacked.

MVP moment: Against the 49ers in December, Allen demonstrated his dominance when he threw a short pass in the red zone to Amari Cooper, who then pitched the ball back to the quarterback. Allen ran the ball down the sideline while being squeezed by three 49ers defenders and stretched his arm out as he broke the plane of the end zone for a 9-yard score.

Standout stat: Allen was at his best when opposing defenses cranked up the heat. His 85.3 QBR and 6.5 yards per dropback when pressured were the highest ever in a season since ESPN began tracking pressures in 2009.

First place votes: 6
Final odds: +350

2024 stats: 4,712 passing yards, 41 TDs, 4 INTs, 77.3 QBR (915 rushing yards, 4 TDs)

Season in review: Think of everything Jackson achieved one season after winning his second MVP. The 28-year-old quarterback is the first player in NFL history with 4,000 passing yards and 900 rushing yards in a season, had the fourth-best passer rating (119.6) in NFL history and is the first reigning MVP to toss 40 touchdowns a season after winning the award. He also set career highs in passing touchdowns, passing yards, yards per attempt (8.8) and TD/INT ratio (10.3).

Baltimore won the AFC North for a second straight season while becoming the first team ever to account for 4,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards. Derrick Henry‘s season played a huge factor in that feat, but it was Jackson who accounted for nearly 27% of his team’s rushing yards. Players typically don’t get astronomically better after reaching their peak, yet Jackson improved in a handful of categories — passing yards, touchdown passes (17 more in 2024), off-target percentage (14.9%) and Total QBR — from last season. He also set franchise records in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns.

The case for Jackson over Allen: Jackson’s passing reached historic levels, but it was his rushing impact that separated him from Allen as the first quarterback with 40-plus touchdown passes and more than 600 rushing yards — and his statistical impact in 2024 was better than his previous two MVP seasons. The supporting cast argument that would appear to favor Allen can be debated by the fact that Buffalo running back James Cook had as many rushing touchdowns as Henry (16), too.

But Jackson’s case is strongest when looking at how he performed against the NFL’s best teams. Jackson’s 7-3 record against playoff teams trumps Allen’s 2-3. Against top-10 defenses, Jackson has the edge in several categories: win-loss record (4-2), EPA/play (0.27) and total touchdowns (15).

MVP moment: The Ravens went into Houston on Christmas Day and stunned a fellow playoff team in a 29-point blowout, as Jackson broke Michael Vick’s record for the most rushing yards by a quarterback. Jackson accounted for three touchdowns and set the new rushing record with 87 yards on four attempts. The historical achievement was highlighted by his season-long 48-yard touchdown run where he reached a career-best top speed of 21.25 mph (NFL Next Gen Stats).

Standout stat: Jackson is the first player in NFL history with at least 40 passing touchdowns and four or fewer interceptions in a season.

First place votes: 0
Final odds: +8000

2024 stats: 2,005 rushing yards, 13 TDs (278 receiving yards, 2 TDs)

Season in review: Had Philadelphia not rested its starters in a Week 18 game against the Giants — Barkley’s former team — after locking up the NFC’s No. 2 seed, it’s safe to say the running back likely would’ve broken Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record (2,105). Barkley averaged 125.3 rushing yards per game and became the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards. But like the four others who achieved that feat before him, Barkley likely won’t win the MVP award.

Barkley’s impact on the Eagles’ offense was felt the strongest in his 11 games with 100 rushing yards — the most ever by any player in their first season with a team — and how his presence in the backfield helped quarterback Jalen Hurts cut his turnovers in half in 2024 (down from 20 to 10).

MVP moment: Barkley shredded the Rams in a November meeting where he rushed for 255 yards (9.8 yards per rush) and two touchdowns. Even though that game was at SoFi Stadium, Barkley walked off the field that evening to “MVP!” chants.

Standout stat: Barkley’s 1,440 rushing yards before contact are the highest in a season over the past 15 years.

First place votes: 0
Final odds: +25000

2024 stats: 4,918 passing yards, 43 TDs, 9 INTs, 74.7 QBR (201 rushing yards, 2 TDs)

Season in review: It’s a shame that Cincinnati wasted the best season of Burrow’s career with a defense that prevented the Bengals from making a postseason run. Cincinnati was 4-8 as late as Dec. 1, but it found its way into the mix for the AFC’s No. 7 seed in Week 18. Burrow was the reason for that as he had the league-lead in passing yards and touchdowns, coupled with the fifth-lowest interception rate (1.4%) and fifth-highest completion percentage (70.6%) in the NFL.

The 28-year-old quarterback’s fifth season will be remembered for the heavy load he shouldered despite losses that don’t reflect his stellar play. Cincinnati lost five games when Burrow threw at least three touchdowns, and the Bengals’ 25.5 points allowed per game were the third-most ever among teams that had a quarterback throw for 40 touchdowns.

MVP moment: Burrow threw for 412 yards, three touchdowns and ran in another in Cincinnati’s 30-24 overtime win in Denver in Week 17. As he did all season, he delivered in a must-win game to keep Cincinnati’s faint playoff hopes alive; it was the Bengals’ first win against a team with a winning record.

Standout stat: Burrow had eight straight games with three passing touchdowns, which tied Andrew Luck (2018) and Peyton Manning (2024) for the second-longest streak in NFL history.