Ten thoughts and observations relating to the early part of the offseason
Ten thoughts and observations relating to the early part of the offseason
NFL teams have been spending more like a drunken sailor this week, thanks to a higher-than-expected 2025 salary cap. According to ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter, players have collectively signed contracts worth $4.88 billion, including $2.19 billion fully guaranteed at signing since Monday.
Once teams could officially begin contacting the agents of players with expiring contracts as the two-day negotiating window that’s a precursor to the start of free agency opened on Monday, it was a seller’s market as usual. The tide is turning since the first wave of free agency is essentially over. It’s now a buyer’s market.
The NFL annual owners meeting, which is March 30-April 2 in Palm Beach, Florida, typically signifies the end of free agency for all practical purposes. Teams will devote most of their attention to the upcoming NFL Draft held April 24-26 after the meeting wraps up.
Here are 10 contract-related thoughts and observations relating to free agency and the early part of the offseason.
The Buffalo Bills renegotiated 2024 NFL MVP Josh Allen’s contract although he had four years worth $154,554,595 remaining on the six-year, $258 million extension averaging $43 million per year (worth a maximum of $288 million through incentives) he signed in 2021. It’s extremely unusual for a team to essentially rip up a contract with four years left like the Bills did.
It’s what happened with the Cleveland Browns‘ ill-fated trade for Deshaun Watson in 2022. Watson had four years totaling $136 million remaining on the four-year, $156 million contract extension averaging $39 million per year he received from the Houston Texans in 2020. The Browns gave Watson an unprecedented fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract in connection with his trade from the Texans.
Allen received a six-year, $330 million deal averaging $55 million per year. The contract has an NFL record $250 million of guarantees. The $147 million fully guaranteed at signing is the second-most ever in an NFL contract. The deal is worth as much as $333 million because of incentives and a $500,000 annual incentive for winning the Super Bowl.
Allen was clearly focused on cash flow as opposed to maximizing the average yearly salary. His $220 million from 2025 through 2028 is the best four-year cash flow ever in an NFL contract. It surpassed the previous high of $219 million (2024 through 2027) in the four-year, $240 million extension Dak Prescott signed with the Dallas Cowboys last September that made him the NFL’s first $60 million-per-year player.
Being the reigning NFL MVP should have given Allen enough ammunition to not only become the cash flow king, but also the league’s highest-paid player. Instead, Allen is tied for second in the NFL salary hierarchy at $55 million per year with Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers).
2. Money changes everything
Reverend Run once said, “Money is the key to end all your woes. Your ups, your downs, your highs and your lows. … It’s like that, and that’s the way it is.” That definitely applies to Myles Garrett.
The 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year publicly requested a trade from the Cleveland Browns in February during Super Bowl week because he wanted to play for a championship contender. The Browns were adamant about not trading him.
Garrett was given an offer he couldn’t refuse to stay in Cleveland. The perennial All-Pro edge rusher signed a four-year, $160 million extension running through the 2030 season to become the NFL’s first $40 million-per-year non-quarterback. The deal has non-quarterback records of $122,796,125 in overall guarantees and $88.8 million fully guaranteed at signing.
3. New England spending spree
The Patriots entered free agency with over $125 million in salary cap space, which was easily the most in the NFL. According to OverTheCap.com, the Patriots have signed eight players to contracts worth $238.5 million with $141.4 million in guarantees where $118.4 million is fully guaranteed at signing. The Patriots are determined to improve upon the 4-13 record of the last two seasons.
The primary emphasis has been on defense. Most notably, Milton Williams signed a four-year, $104 million contract with $63 million in guarantees ($51 million fully guaranteed at signing). The deal makes Williams the NFL’s third-highest paid interior defensive lineman at $26 million per year. Carlton Davis was signed to pair at cornerback with 2024 Second Team All-Pro Christian Gonzalez. He received a three-year, $54 million deal averaging $18 million per year with $34.5 million fully guaranteed. The deal is worth as much as $60 million thanks to incentives. Linebacker Robert Spillane signed a three-year, $33 million contract averaging $11 million per year with $20.6 million fully guaranteed. Incentives make the maximum value of the deal $37.5 million.
4. Caring for Caleb
Last year’s first overall draft pick Caleb Williams was sacked 68 times in 2024, which was the third-most ever in an NFL season. The Chicago Bears have made protecting Williams the focal point of the offseason. A 2026 fourth-round pick was dealt to the Kansas City Chiefs for All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney.
Jonah Jackson was acquired from the Los Angeles Rams for a 2025 sixth-round pick. He reunites with new Bears head coach Ben Johnson, who was his offensive coordinator for his last two seasons with the Detroit Lions in 2022 and 2023. Jackson was a major disappointment after the Rams signed Jackson to a three-year, $51 million deal with $34 million in guarantees, of which $25 million was fully guaranteed at signing. He didn’t have a smooth transition from offensive guard to center.
With the free agent addition of center Drew Dalman, Jackson will be moving back to offensive guard. Dalman signed a three-year, $42 million contract averaging $14 million per year with $28 million in guarantees where $26.5 million was fully guaranteed at signing.
5. Commanders‘ championship push
The Washington Commanders unexpectedly advanced to the NFC Championship game before losing 55-23 to the Philadelphia Eagles. The 12 regular-season wins were the most since the 1991 season when the Commanders won Super Bowl XXVI, the franchise’s last league title.
The first order of business was bringing back Zach Ertz and Bobby Wagner, the 34-year-old seasoned veterans, who helped changed the culture in Washington. Wagner, a future first ballot Hall of Fame linebacker, signed a one-year, $9 million deal with $8 million fully guaranteed worth up to $9.5 million through incentives. Ertz received $6.25 million for one year where $5.59 million is fully guaranteed. The three-time Pro Bowl tight end can make as much as $9 million because of incentives.
General manager Adam Peters has been active in the trade market. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel was obtained from the San Francisco 49ers for a 2025 fifth-round pick. Samuel is in his contract year scheduled to make $17,550,529 in 2025.
Laremy Tunsil, who is one of the NFL’s best pass-protecting left tackles, and a 2025 fourth-round pick were acquired from the Texans for 2025 third- and seventh-round picks as well as 2026 second- and fourth-round picks. There are two years worth $42.7 million remaining on the three-year, $75 million extension Tunsil signed in 2023 that made him the NFL’s first $25 million-per-year offensive lineman.
6. Salary leapfrog
High-end contracts are made to be surpassed. This was evident with Maxx Crosby. The ink was barely dry on the three-year, $106.5 million extension averaging $35.5 million per year the four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher signed with the Las Vegas Raiders to become the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback before Garrett surpassed him with a $40 million-per-year extension.
Garrett’s reign at the top of the non-quarterback landscape will likely be short-lived as well. Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons and Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt are entering contract years.
Watt’s 2021 extension made him the league’s highest-paid non-quarterback. A history of delaying extensions that are inevitable cost the Cowboys more money in the long run. Parsons has made comments about potentially taking some sort of hometown discount, though. Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin has publicly vowed to make Chase, who won the receiving triple crown in 2024 by leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches, the league’s highest-paid non-quarterback.
7. Philadelphia payment priorities
The Super Bowl LIX champion Eagles are going against the grain with their 2025 signing priorities. The NFL world was stunned when the Eagles extended the three-year, $37.75 million contract averaging $12,583,333 per year (worth as much as $46.75 million through incentives and salary escalators) with $26 million in guarantees, of which $24.5 million was fully guaranteed at signing, Saquon Barkley received in 2024 free agency. The contract was set to expire after the 2026 season.
Barkley became the NFL’s first $20 million-per-year running back on a two-year, $41.2 million contract extension averaging $20.6 million per year with $36 million fully guaranteed. He arguably had the best season in NFL history for a running back. Barkley had a legitimate shot at breaking Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old, single-season record of 2,105 rushing yards before the Eagles decided to rest him for the regular-season finale against the New York Giants since the game didn’t affect playoff seeding. He was named 2024’s NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
There are $15 million of incentives and salary escalators in Barkley’s contract. Out of the $15 million in performance bonuses, only $1.5 million were already in Barkley’s old contract so $13.5 million are new.
Zack Baun was one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season after signing a one-year, $3.5 million deal worth a maximum of $4.5 million through incentives in free agency. His transition to inside linebacker from a reserve edge rushing outside linebacker and special teams standout on the New Orleans Saints during the first four years of his NFL career went better than anyone could have possibly imagined.
Baun is the only player to ever have at least 150 tackles and five or more forced fumbles in an NFL season. He was named to the Pro Bowl and earned first team All-NFL honors both for the first time in his career because of his efforts. Baun was also a finalist for the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award.
The Eagles did something uncharacteristic in making a major investment in an off-ball linebacker. Baun is remaining in Philadelphia on a three-year, $51 million contract averaging $17 million per year with $34 million fully guaranteed. The only off-ball linebacker contract with a higher average yearly salary ever in free agency is the four-year, $72 million deal averaging $18 million per year with $50 million in guarantees where $41.8 million was fully guaranteed at signing Tremaine Edmunds received from the Bears in 2023.
The Eagles reset the running back market and have the NFL’s fourth-highest paid off-ball linebacker. Running back and off-ball linebacker aren’t considered premium positions. It could be just as simple as the Eagles choosing to reward their best players regardless of where they play.
8. 49ers’ fiscal restraint
The 49ers have been among the NFL’s highest-spending teams in recent years. According to NFLPA data, the 49ers led the NFL in cash spending at $346.423 million in 2024. There’s a big change occurring with the 49ers in anticipation of a massive contract extension for quarterback Brock Purdy.
Samuel was dealt to the Commanders for a 2025 fifth-round pick. His days in San Francisco had seemed numbered ever since fellow wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was signed to a four-year, $120 million extension averaging $30 million per year with $76 million of guarantees, of which $45 million was fully guaranteed at signing, last September.
A contract maneuver in December paved the way for defensive tackle Javon Hargrave to be released with a post-June 1 designation. Hargrave’s $19.9 million 2025 base salary was cut to $2.1 million that was fully guaranteed on the second day of the 2025 league year (March 13). His 2026 base salary was raised $18 million from $21.65 million to $39.65 million. It was also fully guaranteed on the second day of the 2025 league year.
Defensive tackle Maliek Collins, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and edge rusher Leonard Floyd were also cap casualties. Juszczyk was the NFL’s highest-paid fullback at $4.55 million per year.
Offensive guard Aaron Banks, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga, offensive tackle Jaylon Moore and cornerback Charvarius Ward have departed in free agency. The Broncos signed both Greenlaw and Hufanga. Greenlaw got a three-year, $31.5 million deal worth up to $33.5 million through incentives. Hufanga’s three-year contract is reportedly worth up to $45 million with $20 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Banks went to the Packers on a four-year, $77 million contract averaging $19.25 million that’s worth up to $82 million through incentives and salary escalators. Ward signed a four-year, $72 million deal averaging $18 million per year worth up to $20 million through incentives with the Indianapolis Colts. There are $34.98 million in guarantees where $27 million was fully guaranteed at signing. Moore received a two-year, $30 million contract averaging $15 million per year with $21.42 million fully guaranteed from the Kansas City Chiefs.
9. It pays to be proactive
The Denver Broncos gave cornerback Patrick Surtain II a four-year, $76 million extension averaging $24 million per year with $77.5 million in guarantees where $40,688,565 was fully guaranteed at signing last September as the start of the 2024 regular season was approaching. The deal made Surtain the NFL’s highest-paid defensive back. The 2021 draft’s ninth overall pick preceded to have a career year after signing the extension. He was named 2024’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
Cornerback Jaycee Horn, the eighth pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, just signed a four-year, $100 million extension with the Carolina Panthers to become the NFL’s first $25 million-per-year defensive back. The maximum value is $108 million, thanks to salary escalators. The deal has $72 million in guarantees, of which $46.707 million was fully guaranteed at signing.
Durability has been a problem with Horn. He has only played 37 of a possible 68 regular-season games during his four NFL seasons. Horn earned his first Pro Bowl berth last season.
Just imagine the Broncos trying to sign Surtain after being named NFL Defensive Player of the Year and with Horn’s contract in existence when he was heading into a contract year. Surtain would be justified in asking for a massive reset of the cornerback market. At a minimum, Surtain would be able to command the $27 million per year maximum value of Horn’s deal as his base value.
Becoming the NFL’s first $30 million-per-year defensive back wouldn’t be out of the question with the Bengals planning on making Chase the league’s highest-paid non-quarterback. That means eclipsing Garrett’s new $40 million-per-year extension with the Browns.
Shutdown cornerbacks, like Surtain, are rarer commodities than elite wide receivers. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Surtain was on Chase for 43 of 56 coverage snaps when the Broncos played the Bengals in Week 17 last season. Surtain limited Chase to three catches for 27 yards on six targets.
10. Per-game roster bonus prevalence
The original intent of a per-game roster bonus was for a team get some type of financial relief with a player coming off an injury or because of durability concerns if there was inability to remain healthy. With this type of bonus, an amount is only payable each time a player is on the game day active roster.
Per-game roster bonuses are becoming increasingly prevalent in NFL contracts, particularly with players who don’t have a history of getting hurt. It’s impossible to sign a contract of significance on multiple teams, including the 49ers and Patriots, without per-game roster bonuses.
The Patriots are taking per-game roster bonuses to an extreme. For example, Williams’ four-year contract averaging $26 million per year contains $8.5 million in per-game roster bonuses. He has $2.55 million ($150,000 for each game active) in 2027 and 2028.
The biggest per-game roster bonus I can recall before the Williams deal is former 49ers quarterback Colin Kapernick with $2 million annually ($125,000 per game) in his 2014 contract extension. A shoulder injury in 2015 that ended Kapernick’s season after nine games cost him $875,000 since he didn’t earn seven games worth of per-game roster bonuses.
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