Consumer confidence sours, despite rollback of Trump’s tariffs

Some major retailers have warned of price increases.

​Some major retailers have warned of price increases.   

Consumer confidence soured in June, erasing some of the boost in shopper attitudes that took hold last month as President Donald Trump rolled back tariffs, Conference Board data on Tuesday showed. The reading fell short of economists’ expectations.

The fresh data resumes a trend of worsening consumer confidence that stretches back to the outset of 2025. Last month, a burst of enthusiasm appeared to snap the malaise but fresh data suggests shoppers remain concerned about the path of the U.S. economy.

The decline in consumer confidence took hold across all age, income demographics and political affiliations, the Conference Board said, noting an especially large dropoff among Republicans.

“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

In recent weeks, Trump has dialed back some of his steepest levies, easing costs imposed upon companies and alleviating concern about a sharp surge of inflation. Importers typically pass along a share of the higher tax burden in the form of price hikes.

A trade agreement last month between the U.S. and China slashed tit-for-tat tariffs between the world’s two largest economies and triggered a surge in the stock market. Within days, Wall Street firms softened their forecasts of a downturn.

Still, an across-the-board 10% tariff applies to nearly all imports, except for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and some other items. Those tariffs stand in legal limbo, however, after a pair of federal court rulings late last month.

Warning signs point to the possibility of elevated prices over the coming months, however.

Nationwide retailers like Walmart and Best Buy have voiced alarm about the possibility they may raise prices as a result of the levies.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, said this month it expects U.S. inflation to reach 4% by the end of 2025, which would mark a sharp increase from current levels.

Federal Chair Jerome Powell, in recent months, has warned about the possibility that tariffs may cause what economists call “stagflation,” which is when inflation rises and the economy slows.

Stagflation could put the central bank in a difficult position. If the Fed were to raise interest rates, it could help ease inflation, but it may risk an economic downturn. If the Fed were to cut rates in an effort to spur economic growth, the move could unleash faster price increases.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady last week, continuing a wait-and-see approach adopted by the central bank in recent months as it observes the potential effects of tariffs.

Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., Powell said tariffs would likely “push up prices and weigh on economic activity” over the course of this year. But, he added, the effects would depend on the “ultimate level” of tariffs, which have frequently fluctuated.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” Powell said.