What are the playoff lines we’re looking at before movement later in the week?
What are the playoff lines we’re looking at before movement later in the week?
The 2025 NFL playoffs are here and the wild-card round begins Saturday with a doubleheader featuring Justin Herbert and Los Angeles Chargers facing C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+). In the prime-time slot, Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers will meet Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens for the third time this season (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
On Sunday, rookie Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos travel to Highmark Stadium to face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+). In the NFC, Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers take on Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles (4:30 p.m. ET, FOX). The final game Sunday pits Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock).
Wild Card Weekend wraps up with a prime-time game on “Monday Night Football” as Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings battle Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (8 ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+).
Our team takes an early look at the odds to find value before lines move later in the week.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Buffalo Bills (-8.5) vs. Denver Broncos
Last week: Philadelphia Eagles 1H (-2.5) vs. New York Giants
This game is going to be ugly. Credit to Denver for an impressive campaign, but dive into the numbers and you’ll see the Broncos went 1-7 with a minus-37 point differential against teams with a winning record this season, which obviously doesn’t include their Week 18 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs backups. Denver’s non-Week 18 wins came against clubs that combined to post a 48-88 record this season (.353), which isn’t exactly the type of resume you look for when assessing which teams have a realistic chance of rolling into Buffalo in January and hanging tight with Josh Allen and the Bills.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
If you want to back the Ravens side, I would do it now before the market reaches a full 10. It’s, of course, a lot to lay in a playoff game and I’m always happy to take points with Mike Tomlin, but this Ravens team might be the best in the NFL. Coming off its Week 14 bye, John Harbaugh’s team is 4-0 straight up and against the spread, with each win coming by at least 15 points. That includes a 17-point win at home against the Steelers.
Seth Walder: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans
Last week: Pat Surtain II to win Defensive Player of the Year (+140). Surtain closed as -400 favorite.
My head is telling me Commanders +3.5 is the move, but my heart so, so badly wants to bet against Houston. But it’s for a good reason, I promise.
It’s hard to stress just how much the Texans are struggling right now. Houston ranks 28th in EPA per play since Week 10. Here are some teams that have been more efficient on offense than the Texans in that span: the Bears, Colts, Raiders and Titans. Houston is passing so poorly — without Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell — that it has actually been more efficient running the ball, and the Texans aren’t good at running. I don’t see them turning it around in the playoffs.
Ben Solak: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans (-105)
Last week: Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders. Line closed at -6.5. Chargers won 22-10.
The Texans are limping into the playoffs. Houston is 5-6 after a hot 5-1 start and lost both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to injury. The Texans’ offensive line continues to surrender pressure at one of the highest rates in football, and its defense feasts on bad offenses while struggling against playoff opponents.
The Chargers should be able to neutralize some of Houston’s pass rush with heavy personnel and under center play-action, while defensively Jesse Minter should scheme circles around Bobby Slowik. The Texans were always going to be a fade in the postseason, and against a sharp coaching staff like the Chargers, I’m willing to fade Houston aggressively.
Pamela Maldonado: Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Last week: Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Rams’ defense is hitting its stride, allowing just two touchdowns in Weeks 15 through 17, with rookie Jared Verse anchoring the pass rush. Facing a Vikings offense led by Sam Darnold — who wilted under pressure against the Detroit Lions, enduring harassment on nearly half his dropbacks — this matchup tilts in the Rams’ favor. Sean McVay brings a wealth of postseason savvy (six playoff appearances in eight seasons) to the table. Expect the Rams to leverage defensive dominance and McVay’s strategic edge to not only cover the +2.5 spread but possibly secure an outright win.
More from ESPN Betting:
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MLB futures: Every team’s odds to win the World Series
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NBA betting: Daily picks | Futures
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