Free MLB player props, odds for April 21: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto among best bets for Monday runs scored picks​on April 21, 2025 at 9:00 pm

The Monday MLB schedule features eight games, with seven of them starting after 6 p.m. ET, so there is plenty of time to evaluate MLB props at some of the top sportsbooks. Finding runs scored is a popular way to attack MLB betting, as those props often deliver plus-money returns. The Cincinnati Reds are off to a hot start offensively this season, ranked fourth in the majors in runs scored (117). Shortstop Elly De La Cruz has scored a team-high 15 runs, including one in four straight games, and he is -110 to score a run on Monday against Miami (+102) at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Stars aren’t necessarily always the best players to back with MLB runs scored bets, as those stars are sometimes the one driving in other players. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB runs scored parlay picks. 

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 13-6 roll on all top-rated MLB picks so far this season. The SportsLine Projection Model has also nailed a top HR prop in 10 out of the last 13 days, including Fernando Tatis Jr. (+450) and De La Cruz (+700) on Sunday, and is up more than 32 units during that span. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB run props on Monday. These three picks can be parlayed for +409 odds and would win more than $400 on a $100 bet. 

Aaron Judge Over 0.5 runs scored (-160)

Judge has scored a team-high 21 runs, which is tied with Shohei Ohtani for fourth in the majors. He has scored seven runs in his last nine games for the Yankees, who have scored the second-most runs in the MLB so far this season. Judge has a favorable matchup against Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams, who allowed five earned runs against Baltimore in his last start. The model gives Judge approximately an 80% chance of scoring a run on Monday, making this a 4-star prop pick given the implied odds of 61.5%. Bet365 is offering the best price on this prop at -160. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 runs scored (-135)

Tatis sits just ahead of Judge in runs scored this season with 22, which is tied for the second-most in the majors. He is coming off a monster performance against Houston in primetime on Sunday night, going 2-for-3 with a solo homer, a triple, a walk and three runs scored. Tatis has homered seven times in his last 11 games, and he has nine runs in his last six games. SportsLine’s model gives Tatis a 70% chance of scoring a run against Detroit on Monday, rating this as a 4-star prop pick. Bet365 has the best price on this prop as well at -135. 

Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs scored (-125)

While Soto sits behind teammates Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor in total hits this season, he has scored a team-high 16 runs. The 26-year-old is coming off an outstanding weekend against St. Louis, notching back-to-back multi-hit performances after going nine straight games without one. He scored a run in both of those outings, and the model notes that he has scored in five straight games against a team with a winning record. Soto scores a run in 70% of the model’s projections, making it a 4-star MLB prop pick. DraftKings Sportsbook has this prop at -125.

Want more MLB picks for Monday?

You’ve seen the model’s MLB run scored prop picks for some popular props on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

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You can also see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a sizzling 64-29 roll on MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 16 units.