Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, time, horses, picks, odds: Best bets from expert who hit last year’s winner​on May 3, 2025 at 12:32 am

No trainer in the history of North American horse racing has more victories than Steve Asmussen, but as the Hall-of-Famer heads towards the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs, he’s could be focusing on a more dubious distinction. Asmussen is 0-for-26 in his career in the Run for the Roses, the longest drought in Kentucky Derby history. However, has two 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to add a career-defining win to his resume, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET. Asmussen will saddle Publisher and Tiztastic, both sons of Kentucky Derby winners that are priced at 20-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.

How will Asmussen fare in the 151st Run for the Roses and who are some of the other top 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders to target? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.

For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Trainer Mark Casse and jockey Jose Ortiz are widely regarded as two of the best in the business, but both have struggled at the Run for the Roses historically. Casse is 0-for-10 at the Kentucky Derby and has never had a horse hit the board, while Ortiz is 0-for-9 in his career with Kentucky Derby mounts.

Sandman flashed impressive closing speed in going from eighth-to-first against a nine-horse field in the Arkansas Derby, but he benefited from a brisk early pace. Against pacesetters with the restraint to dial it back and go wire-to-wire, he might have to kick earlier and he could face a traffic along the way against a field full of closers. Added distance at Churchill Downs might help, but Tapit’s bloodline has generally fared better in the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.

Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. In five career races, Burnham Square has three wins, including in the Blue Grass. He also took first in the 2025 Holy Bull Stakes. His first win came on Dec. 28, and he entered his first graded-stakes event on February 1.

Some 2025 Kentucky Derby bettors have been fading Burnham Square due to a disappointing fourth-place finish in the 2025 Fountain of Youth Stakes was won by Kentucky Derby entrant Sovereignty. However, he rebounded strong at the 2025 Blue Grass. Menez isn’t too concerned with his Fountain of Youth results and is confident Burnham Square is a true contender. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks

Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions

2025 Kentucky Derby contenders

1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty