Super Bowl player props: Is there value in betting on Barkley, Hurts and Mahomes?​on February 3, 2025 at 3:59 pm

From Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts to Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown, Super Bowl LIX will have an abundance of talent on display for fans and bettors alike.

But which player props are the best ones to consider betting for Sunday’s Kansas City Chiefs–Philadelphia Eagles matchup? Joe Fortenbaugh, Ben Solak and Seth Walder break down the props they like most.

Odds as of publication. For the most current odds, visit ESPN BET

What are you expecting from Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, and what is your favorite prop?

Solak: I like Hurts to complete 20-plus passes (+100) and to complete 25-plus at +575 as well. Hurts has completed only 25 passes in a game twice this season, but he hasn’t had many two-minute drills or garbage-time drives to pad that number. The last pass Hurts attempted trailing by more than a touchdown in the second half came all the way back in Week 4. If the Eagles fall into a deficit against the Chiefs, we could see them become far more reliant on the pass than they have been in months. I prefer completions to attempts because of the potential for those methodical drives offenses prefer against the Chiefs on neutral scripts.

Walder: When determining bets, I at least do my best to avoid having specific expectations for players in a game and instead try to consider the entire range of outcomes via a statistical model. And my interceptions model sees a little value in Hurts over 0.5 interceptions at +125. From its standpoint, the fair price is +109. Even though the Eagles are a run-heavy offense and Hurts has done a good job avoiding interceptions this season (his 1.0% interception rate ranks fourth best), the Eagles are still underdogs against a good Steve Spagnuolo defense.

Saquon Barkley is the big name, but what is your favorite player rushing prop overall?

Fortenbaugh: Isiah Pacheco under 6.5 rushing attempts (-110). Pacheco has carried the ball exactly five times in each of Kansas City’s two playoff games while playing just 30% of the team’s offensive snaps. Not only has Kareem Hunt assumed the bulk of the rushing workload, but Mahomes has been running more as well. Given Philadelphia’s propensity for long, time-consuming drives, Pacheco and the Chiefs are likely to be operating with limited snaps to begin with, compared to the average they’ve had to work with this season.

Solak: I love all Xavier Worthy rushing props this Sunday, and the best offer on ESPN BET right now is Worthy over 1.5 rushing attempts at plus money (+130). Worthy has at least two rushing attempts in four of his past five games played, which coincides with the return of Hollywood Brown to the starting lineup and an adjustment to Worthy’s role. He gets the handoffs, yes, but some of Worthy’s designed catches also end up as handoffs because the throws are behind the line of scrimmage. That gives us a nice out to getting multiple carries for Worthy over the course of the game.

What is your favorite player receiving prop?

Fortenbaugh: I’m big on A.J. Brown in this game. I like Brown over 69.5 receiving yards (-125), to record 125-plus receiving yards at 7-1 and will add a sprinkle on MVP at 25-1. Brown ranks first among all NFL wide receivers in receiving yards per game against man coverage. Well, guess what? Kansas City deploys man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Not only is the matchup favorable, but as an underdog, Philly could find itself playing from behind in this one, which means plenty of opportunities for Brown to make plays in the passing game.

Walder: DeVonta Smith to have more receiving yards than A.J. Brown (+160). This more a buy-low opportunity on Smith than anything else. The former Heisman winner has yet to exceed 55 receiving yards in a game this postseason, but this is a player whose average receiving yards prop line this season was 58. I think there’s more in store for Smith, and, while Brown is incredible, we’ve seen the potential for him — even this postseason — to have virtually silent games. My receiving yards distribution forecast gives Brown a better chance to reach any yardage total than Smith … not by a ton, but it makes +160 worth it.

The advantage of this prop is that even if the Eagles go with a super run-heavy game script, Smith can still win this just as easily given his “opponent” in this bet.

Solak: In two postseason games, Hollywood Brown has seven targets, and three of them have been over 20 air yards. He’s 0-for-3 on snagging those, but if that’s his primary usage, I’ll take Brown’s longest reception over 18.5 yards for sure. That number is lower than Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce, both of whom get fewer air yards. It’s lower than Dallas Goedert! Even if I don’t get home on a downfield connection, Brown has enough speed to turn an intermediate target upfield to clear this number.