Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Dodgers starter against Diamondbacks at plus odds​on May 8, 2025 at 2:38 pm

The Philadelphia Phillies hope for another strong performance from Jesus Luzardo when they attempt to complete a three-game sweep of the host Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday. Luzardo (3-0, 1.94 ERA) has been a fantastic addition to an already solid Phillies rotation this season, as he’s allowed three runs in just one of his seven starts and two or fewer in each of the other six. Luzardo looks to lead Philadelphia to its ninth win in 11 contests when he takes the mound opposite Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot (2-4, 4.23).

Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props at 5.5 for both Luzardo (Over -115, Under -108) and Pepiot (Over -109, Under -112). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Luzardo Over 5.5 as a 4-star play on its five-star scale and Pepiot Under 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Thursday’s nine-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4 stars and would pay plus-money. Here they are:

Davis Martin Over 3.5 strikeouts (+126) vs. Royals (2:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 3.9 strikeouts

Martin has gone Over this number in each of his last two games, including a six-inning relief appearance against the Athletics on Apr. 27 in which he registered five strikeouts. The 28-year-old right-hander followed that effort by fanning five batters over five frames in a start versus the Houston Astros. Martin has recorded 10 strikeouts across 10 2/3 innings in two career turns against the Royals, including seven over five frames in his major-league debut in 2022. He has had no trouble with Bobby Witt Jr., as the Kansas City star is 0-for-5 with three strikeouts lifetime versus Martin.

Jose Soriano Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125) vs. Blue Jays (9:38 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

Soriano is coming off one of his best outings of the season, a no-decision against the Detroit Tigers in which he scattered six hits and struck out five batters across six scoreless innings. It was the third time this season and first since Apr. 4 versus the Cleveland Guardians (career-high nine strikeouts in 5 1/3 frames) the 26-year-old Dominican righty has gone Over this number. Soriano came out of the bullpen and recorded four strikeouts over 1 2/3 innings in his only career appearance against the Blue Jays in 2023.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 strikeouts (+102) vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts

Yamamoto enters Thursday tied for sixth in the National League and 10th in the majors with 49 strikeouts over 40 innings. The 26-year-old Japanese right-hander has fanned at least six batters in three of his last four starts and four of seven overall this season. Yamamoto registered 13 strikeouts across 12 1/3 frames in two turns against the Diamondbacks last year, including eight over 6 1/3 innings on May 20.