2025 Kentucky Derby horses, odds, futures, date, preview: Expert who hit 11 Derby-Oaks Doubles divulges picks​on April 27, 2025 at 2:26 am

No prep race has produced more Kentucky Derby victors than the Florida Derby with 25. This year’s Florida winner, Tappan Street, had that in his favor for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, but he fractured his leg in a workout at Churchill Downs on April 26 and is out of the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. He would have been one of the top favorites in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds after winning two of three starts. Instead, Journalism is the 3-1 favorite atop the horse racing odds board following the post draw, and he will be racing from the No. 8 post.

The entire field has been revealed for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, which is set to begin at 6:57 p.m. ET. Which horses should you back with your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling. 

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who doesn’t even hit the board in his projections. Rodriguez only has one win in three graded stakes races, which came in the 2025 Wood Memorial (G2) earlier this month. He finished behind Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3).

Trainer Bob Baffert is trying to win a record-setting seventh Kentucky Derby, but two of his three wins since 2002 came with Triple Crown-winning horses. Jockey Mike E. Smith has only won the Derby once since 2005, which came via Justify. Demling does not think Rodriguez stacks up compared to some of Baffert’s previous entries, so he is fading him on Saturday night. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Although no Japanese horse has ever won a Triple Crown race, few horses in the world can compete with Luxor Cafe’s pedigree. Luxor Cafe is the son of American Pharoah, who is one of only two horses in the 21st century to win the Triple Crown. American Pharoah captured the Triple Crown in 2015 and won nine of 11 career races, including eight of nine Grade I races, as arguably the greatest horse of all time.

Luxor Cafe has made a name for himself in Japan though, winning both the Hyacinth Stakes and Fukuryu Stakes since February to qualify for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Luxor Cafe pulled away from the field late in the Fukuryu Stakes in a victory similar to many of American Pharoah’s wins. Although Luxor Cafe faces a significantly tougher field than he ever has in Japan, Demling thinks 15-1 odds is too long for a horse with his pedigree and results. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on one double-digit longshot who is coming off an “impressive” and unexpected showing in his last race. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions