‘Cassidy’s mouth is watering’: Top analysts doubt Oilers goalie, defence vs Vegas

Two of the sharpest commentators in hockey, TSN’s Ray Ferraro and Chris Gawlik of the Locked On Vegas Golden Knights podcast, have doubts and questions about the defence and goaltending of the Edmonton Oilers heading into their second round series against the Vegas Golden Knights.

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Said Ferraro of the Oilers on the Ray & Dregs podcast: “They are healthier than they were at the start of the (Kings) series. (Evander) Kane, who was a total question mark due to his health and unavailability for the past year, he made an impact. They got some depth scoring.”

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But there’s a rub, Ferraro said. “Their defense, does that give you much more confidence than it did at the start of the series? Not for me. Is there goaltending much more solid than it was at the start of the series? Not for me.

“But they got better as the series went on. Like, in my opinion, L.A. imploded in the two games in Edmonton. At the very least they should have had a split in Edmonton. And they didn’t. And the Oilers got progressively better. And I thought the Kings got progressively worse. And the series is over. They (Edmonton) can’t win against Vegas playing like that, like in my opinion. Right? And so, I don’t know, do they feel confident or relieved? I’m not sure.”

Ferraro did like the play of some Oilers depth players, Connor Brown in particular.

“I really like him because I’ve been to where he’s been health-wise is Connor Brown. And when your year is, everybody’s crapping all over you. And all you do is you go home and you’re like, ‘I can’t keep up anymore. I can’t play. I’m not healthy. I’m doing my best. I just can’t.’ And that was him a couple of years ago. And then now he looks like he’s a viable player that can play up and around their lineup. They get Kane back, right? Like that stuff matters. Trent Frederic, who is a hell of a nice kid that they didn’t have since the trade deadline. Now he can get back in and he’s just going to get better… Him and Kane in particular, I’ll point out, they’re the type of guys that really have to be able to play against Vegas. I say this every time we talk about Vegas. They’re so frickin’ big. It is really hard to compete against them if you don’t have guys that can’t.”

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Ferraro, of course, is well-known to Edmonton fans for his strong NHL career and yeears of sharp game analysis. Chris Gawlik is not known, but he’s nonetheless an astute student of the game. He’s been a hardcore member of the amateur Vegas hockey scene for years as a player, coach and referee, VGK season ticket holder from the start and a seller of hockey cards and memorabilia.

In 2023 he picked Vegas to beat the Oilers, something I wasn’t expecting to happen. But Gawlike argued that Vegas would do it because VGK had better coaching and better goaltending.

He was dead right on both counts, as Adin Hill was much better than Stuart Skinner in the nets that year, and even though the Oilers had more Grade A shots than Vegas, 15.3 to 12.8 per game, in key moments as the series progressed, Vegas was able to shut down the Oilers attack by stacking players in the defensive slot, while Vegas generated goals by cycling the puck to the point, throwing it at the Edmonton net, then beating the Oil’s stretched out man-to-man defence by crashing the net from all sides and slamming in rebounds.

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Gawlik is a Vegas homer, of course, and he’s picking Vegas to win again, but he’s not quite as bullish as he was in 2023, in part because Vegas has had a few more defensive struggles this year. One key match-up will be Connor McDavid against top Vegas d-man Alex Pietrangelo who was part of a VGK group that struggled to contain Wild attacking aces Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov.

But on his Locked On Golden Knights podcast, Gawlik pointed out several issues with the the Oilers.

“I’ll just put my take out there right now: Is a Calvin Pickard-led goaltending team capable of defeating the Golden Knights? And yeah, I know McDavid, I know Draisaitl. I’m not selling those guys short by any means.

“The Golden Knights are going to buckle up defensively. They’ve done this before to the Edmonton Oilers, and I’d argue that this team is capable of doing it now. There’s questions about the defense. Sure…. But I’ll say this again, Calvin Pickard, I think he has six or seven games of playoff NHL experience, been around for a long time. He’s a journeyman. Lucky to be in the role that he is. And I mean, the Golden Knight cut him for a reason in the 2017-2018 season. Very famously, he puts out a tweet or a post. Basically, his helmet design was in honor of Vegas and for the fans and everything. And a couple of days later, (Vegas hockey boss Kelly) McCrimmon’s like, ‘Get out of here, bro, you’re done.’”

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Gawlik also noted how much time on ice the Oilers were playing the pairing of Even Bouchard and Darnell Nurse. “I mean, tell me that Darnel Nurse out there for 24:54 a game that (Vegas coach) Bruce Cassidy’s mouth is watering at that one, I think.”

As for Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch, Gawlik asked, “Can Knoblauch find a way to do something different that Coach Cassidy is not going to be ready for?… Is Knoblauch capable of out coaching Bruce Cassidy? And the answer is yes. Knoblauch, I think, is a better coach than the useless Jay Woodcroft.”

My take

1. Ferraro and Gawlik raise credible issues about Edmonton’s defensive play and goalie. Pickard and Skinner have been iffy at times this year, including in the playoffs. The top pairing of Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard did have some awful moments on defence against the Kings, so much so that Edmonton should likely split up the two. Edmonton as a team also lacked commitment and discipline on defence in most of the games against the Kings. And Vegas has indeed demonstrated that it’s a big, tough, difficult and imposing defensive team, in particular in the slot in front of its own goalie, where it’s zone defence is like a wall of iron. All this is troubling when it comes to the prospect of the Oilers winning this series.

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2. To win the Stanley Cup, Edmonton needs two things, outstanding defensive play and good health. The Oilers are missing Mattias Ekholm, but seem to have come out of the series against the Kings in relative good health. Key injured players such as Evander Kane, John Klingberg, Trent Frederic, Leon Draisaitl and Jake Walman got stronger as the series went along.

3. That leaves the big question about the Oil’s defence. They gave up 14.3 Grade A shots against the Kings per game, much more than they have done in other playoff series. They struggled to contain Los Angeles, in particular early on with the L.A. power play. In Game 5, the Oilers had an outstanding defensive game, giving up just six Grade A shots and 1 goal, but that went out the window in Game 6, when Edmonton’s players were again sieves on defence. They gave up a shocking number of odd-man rushes. It wasn’t a performance to bring hope as they come up against disciplined Vegas.

4. To win, Edmonton’s forwards are going to have to make sure in the offensive zone that they have one forward back to help the defence prevent odd-man rushes. They’re going to have to limit their proclivity to make turnovers at the offensive blueline, which also leads to odd-man rushes. Can they do those things? I have my doubts. But if they want to get by Vegas, they’re going to have to commit like they haven’t done all season to playing sound defensive hockey.

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5. Bouchard and Niurse have struggled as a pairing. At this point I’m not sure why they’re together. Paul Coffey can be stubbron on issues like this, but Edmonton might well be best served to go with Bouchard paired with Brett Kulak, who has been super solid in the playoffs, Jake Walman paired with John Klingberg, and Nurse paired up with his regular season running mate Troy Stecher. They were out for 19 goals for and 16 goals against in the regular season in 474 even strength minutes. Stecher got better as the season went along, outplaying Ty Emberson.

Or Edmonton could go with Bouchard and Walman on one pairing, Nurse and ever improving John Klingberg on the other, with Kulak and Emberson/Stecher.

Either option would appear to better than sticking with Bouchard and Nurse. who were on for three goals for, eight against in six games against the Kings.

Little wonder Gawlik suggests that Cassidy would love to see that pairing in Game One against VGK.

6. As for goaltending, Knoblauch has one advantage over Woodcroft. He’s been willing to rotate goalies out when they’re playing poorly in the past two playoff seasons, something that Woodcroft was unwilling to try with Skinner in 2023. He stuck with Skinner, even as Skinner was struggling to make saves against Vegas. This time, if Pickard struggles, Knoblauch can go to Skinner. If Skinner struggles, Knoblauch can go to Pickard. Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out. This formula seems to work bettter than the notion of sticking with a goalie who is not making big saves and not winning games.

LEAVINS: 9 Things that give the Oilers an edge

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