Kentucky Derby 2025 odds, post positions, picks: Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman predictions from best expert​on May 3, 2025 at 1:16 am

Horses with single-digit odds won each Kentucky Derby between 2013 and 2018, but longshots have been trending as the 2025 Kentucky Derby goes to post at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. Five of the past six Kentucky Derby winners have been double-digit longshots, including huge underdogs like Country House (30-1) in 2019 and Rich Strike (80-1) in 2022. Citizen Bull, Grande and Tiztastic are among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses drawing longer 2025 Kentucky Derby odds who have notable wins on the path to the Kentucky Derby 2025. In fact, they’re all 20-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby betting odds.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites are Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1). Which horses should you include in your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and 2025 Kentucky Derby futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling, considering his domination of this race. 

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis

One surprise: Demling is fading Sandman, even though he is third in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 at 6-1. Sandman is drawing a lot of betting interest after cruising to a nine-furlong stakes win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Sandman showcased finishing power and tactical speed while defeating a quality field in that race.

Sandman has compiled a 3-1-2 record from eight starts, earning over $1.25 million in the process. Trainer Mark Casse has Kentucky Derby experience with 10 prior starts, but none of those 10 have even finished in the money. Deep closers tend to struggle in the Kentucky Derby, but Sandman is set to make his fourth start at Churchill Downs and showcased his elite ceiling in the Arkansas Derby. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Demling also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction for Sovereignty. The second-place finisher in the Florida Derby is the oddsmakers’ second choice at 5-1 odds, behind only Journalism (3-1). He lost by a length-and-a-quarter to Tappan Street, who was ruled out of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 2025 field due to injury.

Sovereignty is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and enters with two wins and two second place finishes in five career starts. Under regular rider Junior Alvarado, the three-year-old colt could be flying from the back as the horses come down the stretch. With a projected speed dual up front, he may be able to pass tired horses late and finish near the top.

Demling has also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for Journalism, the 3-1 favorite. Trainer Michael McCarthy made his Kentucky Derby debut last season with Endlessly and wound up with a respectable ninth-place finish. Jockey Umberto Rispoli was also in the saddle for that trip and that was his best finish after placing 14th with Brooklyn Strong in 2021. However, the expectations will be higher for both with this Santa Anita Derby winner.

Sired by 2007 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin out of Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, Journalism debuted with a third-place finish at Santa Anita in October of last year. He broke his maiden just three weeks later at Del Mar and has since ripped off three graded-stakes wins in a row. However, he’s never raced outside of California and he’s only raced against small fields, so the shipment to Kentucky and 19 competitors could be a shock. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on a huge double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions

2025 Kentucky Derby horse profiles

1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza