People prepare for wild weather as BoM forecasts Alfred to hit Queensland later this week with state’s capital in its pathFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastTrack the path of Tropical Cyclone AlfredFor almost two weeks, Tropical Cyclone Alfred has ambled about the Coral Sea.Early on Sunday morning the cyclone passed below the Tropic of Capricorn, way off-track for the typical path a cyclone might take to the north Queensland coast. Continue reading…People prepare for wild weather as BoM forecasts Alfred to hit Queensland later this week with state’s capital in its pathFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastTrack the path of Tropical Cyclone AlfredFor almost two weeks, Tropical Cyclone Alfred has ambled about the Coral Sea.Early on Sunday morning the cyclone passed below the Tropic of Capricorn, way off-track for the typical path a cyclone might take to the north Queensland coast. Continue reading…
For almost two weeks, Tropical Cyclone Alfred has ambled about the Coral Sea.
Early on Sunday morning the cyclone passed below the Tropic of Capricorn, way off-track for the typical path a cyclone might take to the north Queensland coast.
Forecasters predict Alfred will continue to linger, moving slowly south until Tuesday, then take an erratic sharp turn back towards the heavily-populated south-east Queensland coast.
When is Tropical Cyclone Alfred going to hit?
Forecasters from the Bureau of Meteorology predict Tropical Cyclone Alfred will make landfall on Thursday and Friday somewhere between Bundaberg and northern New South Wales.
This remains a forecast, which can and will change over the coming days.
The BoM’s published tracking doesn’t yet extend to Thursday, and it’s common for the predicted path of a cyclone to be revised regularly before it reaches the coast.
People should keep updated regularly about changes to potentially impacted areas.
Why is this a big deal?
Tropical cyclones are typically a tropical phenomenon and the fact that Alfred could reach the coastline hundreds of kilometres south of the tropics could be quite dangerous.
There is a huge population in the potential path of the cyclone of more than 4 million people, most of them living in and around Brisbane. And the Queensland capital is not particularly well-equipped to cope with a cyclone.
Residents of north Queensland and the Northern Territory are well-versed at preparing for cyclones; most have a ready-made cyclone kit with emergency supplies, and many buildings and homes are constructed to withstand strong winds.
Brisbane is also used to storms, but doesn’t cope particularly well with them. The city has severely flooded three times – in 2011, 2017 and 2022 – in the past 15 years. Predictions of 300mm to 600mm of rainfall in some areas, after a particularly wet summer, are worrying authorities.
It is unusual to be taking the threat of a cyclone this seriously this far from it making landfall. But authorities are taking this very, very seriously.
When was the last cyclone in Brisbane?
It is rare – but not unheard of – for tropical cyclones to reach landfall south of the tropics.
The closest a cyclone track has come to Brisbane was in 1990, when Tropical Cyclone Nancy tracked erratically towards the Queensland capital, before making a southward turn just off the coastline and never reaching landfall.
Tropical Cyclone Wanda – the cause of Brisbane’s historic 1974 floods – crossed the coast near K’gari and Hervey Bay. A severe tropical cyclone crossed the coast near Tweed Heads in 1954.
It is far more common for a tropical cyclone to cross the coast north of the Tropic of Capricorn and return overland to the south-east as a destructive low storm. This occurred with Cyclone Debbie in 2017.
How should people prepare?
The Queensland government has a guide for residents to get ready for a potential cyclone, which includes packing a kit with enough basic items for your family to use for three days at home without power.
Residents should make sure loose items are secured or put away.
Will schools and services be closed?
It’s too early to know whether schools or other services will be closed or affected by Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
The Queensland government has a dashboard for parents and families advising of any school closures.
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